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Sunday, February 19, 2012
Saturday, February 18, 2012
'Two-Speed World,' 'Manyness' Key Themes in Post-Crisis World Feb. 2010 ...
February 22, 2010
'Two-Speed World,' 'Manyness' Key Themes in Post-Crisis World
By Kim Jae-kyoung
Staff Reporter
The global economy, both advanced and developing, is facing a totally new economic paradigm in the wake of the global financial crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown.
The worst crisis in half a century has accelerated ongoing global trends ― the shifting economic center of gravity from the West to East, the rise of new global challengers from rapidly developing economies, and the growing volatility and complexity of the business environment.
This transformation has redefined the nature of globalization, changing the rules of the game for companies with international ambitions and calling for new competitive models to win in the post-crisis world.
For South Korea, this crisis could be a great opportunity to emerge as a leading player in the global community. Depending on how it copes, Korea's future could turn out very differently in the coming decades.
This would be a great time for Korea to develop a winning platform for the future. Korea should think about what its competitiveness will be when the current crisis ends and the fact that the importance of new challengers and rapidly developing economies are much stronger.
In order for Korea and Korean companies to become successful in such moves, it is critical to understand new realities emerging in the post-crisis world and come up with the right strategies to cope with them. The following are ten new realities that The Boston Consulting Group believes will dominate the global economy in the post-crisis world.
Two-Speed World
Global economies will progress falling into two distinctive camps dubbed "two-speed world." Western economies and Japan will undergo a slow recovery mode of 1.5 to 2.5 percent growth, while developing economies, the BRIC except for Russia, are accelerating out of the crisis with 6 to 8 percent growth.
The BCG projected annual growth rates of less than 2 percent for the United States, Europe and Japan until 2015. Emerging markets like China, India and Brazil, meanwhile, will return to their pre-crisis growth levels ― China marking 8 to 9 percent annual growth, India 6 to 7 percent and Brazil 3 to 4 percent.
The new global reality means that global firms should change their business philosophy from "oneness" to "manyness." Large parts of rapidly developing markets are different in important respects from developed countries and will continue to be so. A further complication is the fact that most developing markets are themselves heterogeneous, with many distinct submarkets.
The BCG said that success in these countries will require a philosophy of manyness ― many products and services, drawing on many skills, talents, ideas, organizations and systems to compete in many market segments. It recommended that companies in developed nations become more like the "brash upstarts" from fast-growing economies to ensure their continued global success.
Relative Calm
The coming years may turn out to be relatively calm. Economies will bounce back from the deepest drop since the Second World War. But since major risks are still lingering, slow recovery is expected down the road.
When recovery comes, there will be a period of slower organic growth with much less of the turbo-charging that comes with debt. Moreover, given the huge and unsustainable levels of debt today, it is reasonable to assume that the deleveraging process will take several years. This will act as a drag on the global economic rebound.
No Early Exit Actions
With the global economy showing signs of recovery, when to employ exit plans is one of the hot issues. Many argue that it is time to take action to curb inflationary pressure but it seems that actual exit strategies are harder to implement.
Considering market outlooks of advanced economies, including the U.S., China, the EU and Japan, the global economy outlook is not so positive. A few countries, such as China, are expected to show faster recovery than others. The present situation in the advanced economies may be called "stabilization without full recovery."
Renewed Protectionism
The global crisis is building up social and industrial pressure to revive local companies and economies. In Western countries, there have been strong calls for the use of local goods and local human resource.
Protectionism may well be the big threat as the crisis deepens. Traditional protectionism applying to the flow of goods is already being joined by new forms of financial protectionism and other moves to limit economic migration. Although leaders, publicly, may be trying to distance themselves from protectionists' words, this is not fully reflected in their actions.
Rebalanced Trade Flow
Following the global crisis, major import economies will look to level the export side of the equation. Over the past decade, many countries, including the U.S. and the UK, ran significant trade deficits. This pattern is not likely to continue. The deficit countries cannot maintain their consumption patterns because they need to rebalance their finances.
Accordingly, there could be a coordinated international approach. Deficit countries will endeavor to soften the impact of the downturn at home, supporting the export-oriented countries. And export countries will boost domestic demand to compensate for the fall in the demand for their exports, thereby supporting the necessary rebalancing of trade flows.
Asia Bound Globalization
Asian countries are leading globalization in terms of business expansion and investment abroad. Although many Western companies stepped back from international expansion, their rivals from the rapidly developing economies have seized opportunities to gain stronger market positions.
These countries, with their low-cost position in the fastest growing markets, are now increasingly taking leadership roles in global markets. They are already the leading global suppliers of commodities, and many other products and services.
Government Activism
Governments will pursue policies of economic protectionism. But they are also expected to be active in other ways ― regulating businesses, particularly in the financial sector, experimenting with fiscal and monetary policy, and intervening in and taking ownership of private enterprises.
The financial sector will see regulation, but it will not be the only industry to experience more government intervention. As politicians regain the power and influence they lost during the boom years of private enterprise, they will intervene much more prominently in a range of industries in order to protect domestic companies, limit competition and regulate earnings.
Return to the Past
The look of the financial markets is expected to change toward "bigger government" and "more regulation" going forward. The market will see a smaller, more regulated and less profitable finance sector re-emerge over the coming decade. There will be more "old fashioned" products and practices, with financial firms focusing on their customers and long-term relationships.
In retail banking, there will be renewing focus on quality assets, while less risk taking will be a trend in investment banking. The world has entered a new era in which universal banks ― those combining investment and commercial activities ― will rule the global financial economy.
Growth of New Industries
In the post-crisis world, there will be renewed interest and investment in new industries, such as cloud computing and green industries. The Web-centric environment is rapidly evolving, while shares of online markets are increasing further.
A multitude of new Web-enabled devices will be introduced. "Green" industries will become common among major nations, which will encourage governments to support new business opportunities.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2010/02/294_61234.html
'Two-Speed World,' 'Manyness' Key Themes in Post-Crisis World
By Kim Jae-kyoung
Staff Reporter
The global economy, both advanced and developing, is facing a totally new economic paradigm in the wake of the global financial crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown.
The worst crisis in half a century has accelerated ongoing global trends ― the shifting economic center of gravity from the West to East, the rise of new global challengers from rapidly developing economies, and the growing volatility and complexity of the business environment.
This transformation has redefined the nature of globalization, changing the rules of the game for companies with international ambitions and calling for new competitive models to win in the post-crisis world.
For South Korea, this crisis could be a great opportunity to emerge as a leading player in the global community. Depending on how it copes, Korea's future could turn out very differently in the coming decades.
This would be a great time for Korea to develop a winning platform for the future. Korea should think about what its competitiveness will be when the current crisis ends and the fact that the importance of new challengers and rapidly developing economies are much stronger.
In order for Korea and Korean companies to become successful in such moves, it is critical to understand new realities emerging in the post-crisis world and come up with the right strategies to cope with them. The following are ten new realities that The Boston Consulting Group believes will dominate the global economy in the post-crisis world.
Two-Speed World
Global economies will progress falling into two distinctive camps dubbed "two-speed world." Western economies and Japan will undergo a slow recovery mode of 1.5 to 2.5 percent growth, while developing economies, the BRIC except for Russia, are accelerating out of the crisis with 6 to 8 percent growth.
The BCG projected annual growth rates of less than 2 percent for the United States, Europe and Japan until 2015. Emerging markets like China, India and Brazil, meanwhile, will return to their pre-crisis growth levels ― China marking 8 to 9 percent annual growth, India 6 to 7 percent and Brazil 3 to 4 percent.
The new global reality means that global firms should change their business philosophy from "oneness" to "manyness." Large parts of rapidly developing markets are different in important respects from developed countries and will continue to be so. A further complication is the fact that most developing markets are themselves heterogeneous, with many distinct submarkets.
The BCG said that success in these countries will require a philosophy of manyness ― many products and services, drawing on many skills, talents, ideas, organizations and systems to compete in many market segments. It recommended that companies in developed nations become more like the "brash upstarts" from fast-growing economies to ensure their continued global success.
Relative Calm
The coming years may turn out to be relatively calm. Economies will bounce back from the deepest drop since the Second World War. But since major risks are still lingering, slow recovery is expected down the road.
When recovery comes, there will be a period of slower organic growth with much less of the turbo-charging that comes with debt. Moreover, given the huge and unsustainable levels of debt today, it is reasonable to assume that the deleveraging process will take several years. This will act as a drag on the global economic rebound.
No Early Exit Actions
With the global economy showing signs of recovery, when to employ exit plans is one of the hot issues. Many argue that it is time to take action to curb inflationary pressure but it seems that actual exit strategies are harder to implement.
Considering market outlooks of advanced economies, including the U.S., China, the EU and Japan, the global economy outlook is not so positive. A few countries, such as China, are expected to show faster recovery than others. The present situation in the advanced economies may be called "stabilization without full recovery."
Renewed Protectionism
The global crisis is building up social and industrial pressure to revive local companies and economies. In Western countries, there have been strong calls for the use of local goods and local human resource.
Protectionism may well be the big threat as the crisis deepens. Traditional protectionism applying to the flow of goods is already being joined by new forms of financial protectionism and other moves to limit economic migration. Although leaders, publicly, may be trying to distance themselves from protectionists' words, this is not fully reflected in their actions.
Rebalanced Trade Flow
Following the global crisis, major import economies will look to level the export side of the equation. Over the past decade, many countries, including the U.S. and the UK, ran significant trade deficits. This pattern is not likely to continue. The deficit countries cannot maintain their consumption patterns because they need to rebalance their finances.
Accordingly, there could be a coordinated international approach. Deficit countries will endeavor to soften the impact of the downturn at home, supporting the export-oriented countries. And export countries will boost domestic demand to compensate for the fall in the demand for their exports, thereby supporting the necessary rebalancing of trade flows.
Asia Bound Globalization
Asian countries are leading globalization in terms of business expansion and investment abroad. Although many Western companies stepped back from international expansion, their rivals from the rapidly developing economies have seized opportunities to gain stronger market positions.
These countries, with their low-cost position in the fastest growing markets, are now increasingly taking leadership roles in global markets. They are already the leading global suppliers of commodities, and many other products and services.
Government Activism
Governments will pursue policies of economic protectionism. But they are also expected to be active in other ways ― regulating businesses, particularly in the financial sector, experimenting with fiscal and monetary policy, and intervening in and taking ownership of private enterprises.
The financial sector will see regulation, but it will not be the only industry to experience more government intervention. As politicians regain the power and influence they lost during the boom years of private enterprise, they will intervene much more prominently in a range of industries in order to protect domestic companies, limit competition and regulate earnings.
Return to the Past
The look of the financial markets is expected to change toward "bigger government" and "more regulation" going forward. The market will see a smaller, more regulated and less profitable finance sector re-emerge over the coming decade. There will be more "old fashioned" products and practices, with financial firms focusing on their customers and long-term relationships.
In retail banking, there will be renewing focus on quality assets, while less risk taking will be a trend in investment banking. The world has entered a new era in which universal banks ― those combining investment and commercial activities ― will rule the global financial economy.
Growth of New Industries
In the post-crisis world, there will be renewed interest and investment in new industries, such as cloud computing and green industries. The Web-centric environment is rapidly evolving, while shares of online markets are increasing further.
A multitude of new Web-enabled devices will be introduced. "Green" industries will become common among major nations, which will encourage governments to support new business opportunities.
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2010/02/294_61234.html
Saturday, February 11, 2012
Petraeus Back from Baghdad ...
Related articles ~ U.S. CIA Director, Petraeus, aware of crimes Hashemi
and April 2010 ..Iraq ~ Patraeus says, New infrastructure and economic rebuilding coupled with security gains are for all to see ... and April 2011 .. Panetta to head Pentagon, Petraeus to replace him as CIA chief ...
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Petraeus back from Baghdad
CIA Director David Petraeus has just returned from a quick visit to Iraq.
The trip was initially intended as a chance for Petraeus to thank the CIA team in Iraq as the US completed its withdrawal of forces, an official said.
and April 2010 ..Iraq ~ Patraeus says, New infrastructure and economic rebuilding coupled with security gains are for all to see ... and April 2011 .. Panetta to head Pentagon, Petraeus to replace him as CIA chief ...
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Petraeus back from Baghdad
CIA Director David Petraeus has just returned from a quick visit to Iraq.
The trip was initially intended as a chance for Petraeus to thank the CIA team in Iraq as the US completed its withdrawal of forces, an official said.
Central Bank of Iraq the return of the dollar exchange rate to what it was ...
December 21, 2011Central: the return of the dollar exchange rate to what it was
BAGHDAD - Fulayyih Heidar al-Rubaie
Down the dollar exchange rate to what it was a few weeks ago to stand at 1,200 dinars per dollar, and comes at a time deliberately in which the central bank to pump more than 400 thousand dollars to the local market to fill the growing needs of the dollar, which invited him to double the sales of foreign currency in Mzhadath daily to meet the demand of businessmen and traders and to reduce the gains the dollar, which reached numbers high during the week and the past.
Continues ...read more ..
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