Sunday, November 6, 2011New Iraq insurgency feared
Offshoot of al-Qaida there shifts tactics to exploit gaps, reignite sectarian violence
Baghdad, As the United States prepares to withdraw its troops from Iraq by year's end, senior U.S. and Iraqi officials are expressing growing concern that al-Qaida's offshoot here, which just a few years ago waged a debilitating insurgency that plunged the country into a civil war, is poised for a deadly resurgence.
Al-Qaida allies in North Africa, Somalia and Yemen are seeking to assert more influence following the death of Osama bin Laden and the diminishing role of al-Qaida's remaining top leadership in Pakistan. For its part, al-Qaida in Iraq is striving to rebound from defeats inflicted by Iraqi tribal groups and U.S. troops in 2007, as well as the death of its two leaders in 2010.
Although the organization is certainly weaker than it was at its peak five years ago and is unlikely to regain its prior strength, U.S. and Iraqi analysts said the al-Qaida franchise is shifting its tactics and strategies -- like attacking Iraqi security forces in small squads -- to exploit gaps left by the departing U.S. troops and reignite sectarian violence in the country.
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The group, which is also known as al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, has shown surprising resilience even as its traditional supply lines of foreign fighters through Syria have been disrupted by the turmoil in that country, U.S. intelligence officials say. It conducts a little more than 30 attacks a week, carries out a large-scale strike every four to six weeks and has expanded its efforts to recruit Iraqis, leading to a significant increase in the number of Iraqi-born suicide bombers.
"I cringe whenever anybody makes a pronouncement that al-Qaida is on its last legs," said Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Buchanan, the U.S. military's top spokesman in Iraq. "I think one day we are going to look around and say it's been a long time since we have heard from al-Qaida, and maybe then we can say it is on its last legs."
The al-Qaida affiliate's nascent resurgence has helped fuel a debate between some Pentagon officials on one side, who are seeking a way to permit small numbers of U.S. military trainers and Special Operations forces to operate in Iraq, and some White House officials on the other, who are eager to close the final chapter on a divisive eight-year war that cost the lives of more than 4,400 troops.
Iraqi analysts express fears that ties between al-Qaida and members of the former ruling Baath Party may be re-forming. "The government is afraid from an alliance between al-Qaida and Baath precisely in this time, after the American withdrawal from Iraq," said Ehssan al-Shemari, a political science professor at Baghdad University. "The security issue is the biggest challenge for the government in the next stage."
According to Gen. Buchanan, there are 800 to 1,000 people in al-Qaida's Iraq network "from terrorists involved in operations, to media to finance to fighters." A document released by the military in July 2010 said al-Qaida had about 200 "hard core" fighters in Iraq. The weak Iraqi economy is providing a large pool of young and vulnerable recruits, analysts say.
A Defense Department official familiar with the al-Qaida affiliate said that the group's leaders and foot soldiers were Sunni Arabs from central, western and northern Iraq. While some may have been affiliated with the Baath Party in Saddam Hussein's government, analysts say, they were not involved at high levels of the government or military. Foreigners make up only a small percentage of the organization's membership base.
Although the United States is withdrawing all but a handful of its remaining 33,000 troops, leaving a few to guard the U.S. Embassy, both governments are continuing to discuss an ongoing military partnership. Among the main American goals is for the Iraqi government to approve a contingent of U.S. Special Forces that would train and assist Iraqi security forces, according to two U.S. officials.
The White House announced Friday that President Barack Obama would meet with Prime Minister Nouri Maliki on Dec. 12 to discuss the continuing "strategic partnership" between the United States and Iraq.
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