videos ~ Understanding the Green Book & Libyan politics, the easy way (slightly updated version) ...
September 4, 2011
The next battle will be fought by those wanting a slice of the economic action
To the victors the spoils: that is what the future looks like in Libya this weekend.
Although the fighting is still raging in parts of the country, the next battle will be waged by the international community to get a slice of the economic action as the National Transitional Council (NTC) begins the task of restoring the country’s shattered infrastructure.
Last week saw the first steps being taken in Paris where NTC officials outlined their plans and produced a lengthy shopping list to a gathering of 60 countries and international organisations.
It also gave the delegates the opportunity to prove that they are Libya’s new best friends and want to be rewarded when contracts are negotiated in the coming months. Both Britain and France should top the list as they were the guiding lights behind the Nato air campaign which gave the rebel ground forces the edge to topple President Muammar Gaddafi. They also co-hosted the conference and have emerged as the prime sponsors of the new Libya.
Continues ..
The US will also get good billing, for although they took a back seat in the operations they did supply necessary back-up and weaponry. The importance of the Paris meeting to them was signified by the presence of Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and a strong diplomatic team. American expertise in oil exploration and production will also encourage the NTC to seek out Washington’s help and advice. There will also be scope for arms trading: Gaddafi’s forces were equipped with Soviet era weapons and these will need to be replaced, with the US in a good position to exploit the need.
Other countries will benefit to a greater or lesser degree. Italy, the former colonial power, will be rewarded for providing air bases for Nato war planes, while Germany will be less well placed due to its original refusal to support the operations. Berlin’s recent loan to the NTC of $15 million was probably too little and too late. The biggest question mark will be over Russia and China, which supported the Gaddafi regime to the bitter end and were unenthusiastic about Nato’s imposition of the no-fly zone.
In a belated attempt to make up lost ground ahead of the Paris conference, Moscow recognised the NTC as the legitimate government, and no doubt hopes that will give substance to claims for Russia to be regarded as another potential ally.
For the new regime the main problem is not so much the war damage but the fact that Libya’s infrastructure had been run into the ground under Gaddafi, and badly needs modernisation. It is also true that for many years Libya relied on foreign expertise and all the major powers had significant workforces in the country – Britain’s through the oil giant BP, in a deal brokered by former prime minister Tony Blair.
China alone supplied 35,000 technocrats, mainly in the oil industry, and that fact alone should support Beijing’s claims for preference when the new deals are fixed. On Friday, the Chinese foreign ministry issued a statement saying that it placed great importance on good relations and vowed to “maintain close contact” with the NTC in the weeks ahead, mainly because it is a major importer of Libyan oil.
Given the scramble to profit out of the new-born Libya it would be easy to dismiss the desire to win contracts as a cynical exercise in exploitation, but behind the profiteering there is a pragmatic view that the country has to be made safe for the good of the world. The diplomatic view in the West is that a stable Libya is a prerequisite for the good of the Mediterranean region and the wider Middle East. Oil supplies need to be protected, and there is still scope to expand the existing natural gas resources which have helped to make Libya one of Africa’s wealthiest countries.
On the other hand, if Libya became a failed state it could fall prey to Islamic extremism or add to the stream of north African refugees who regularly cross the Mediterranean to seek a new life in France and Italy. More than any other factor, the fear of a Libyan collapse has prompted the leading Western nations to offer their support to the new regime. The Paris conference was a first step towards creating normalisation and the mood was set by Clinton when she told delegates that the US would be leading the way in creating a new relationship.
“We will be watching and supporting Libya’s leaders as they keep their stated commitments to conduct an inclusive transition, act under the rule of law, and protect vulnerable populations, and that should include enshrining the rights of women as well as men in their constitution,” she said at the end of the conference.
“Honouring these principles offers Libya its best chance at a stable, successful future.”
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/world-news/the-next-battle-will-be-fought-by-those-wanting-a-slice-of-the-economic-action-1.1121649
