Click here to watch the video recording on CSPAN's web site @ link
“Several potential adversaries have or can acquire the capability to attack the United States with a high-altitude nuclear weapon- generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP).
A determined adversary can achieve an EMP attack capability without having a high level of sophistication. EMP is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences.
EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear weapon. It has the capability to produce significant damage to critical infrastructures and thus to the very fabric of US society, as well as to the ability of the United States and Western nations to project influence and military power.
The common element that can produce such an impact from EMP is primarily electronics, so pervasive in all aspects of our society and military, coupled through critical infrastructures. Our vulnerability is increasing daily as our use of and dependence on electronics continues to grow.
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The impact of EMP is asymmetric in relation to potential protagonists who are not as dependent on modern electronics. The current vulnerability of our critical infrastructures can both invite and reward attack if not corrected. Correction is feasible and well within the Nation's means and resources to accomplish…. ‘The damage level could be sufficient to be catastrophic to the Nation, and our current vulnerability invites attack….’
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Overview
EMP IS CAPABLE OF CAUSING CATASTROPHE FOR THE NATION
The high-altitude nuclear weapon-generated electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is one of a small number of threats that has the potential to hold our society seriously at risk and might result in defeat of our military forces. Briefly, a single nuclear weapon exploded at high altitude above the United States will interact with the Earth’s atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetic field to produce an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) radiating down to the Earth and additionally create electrical currents in the Earth. EMP effects are both direct and indirect.
The former are due to electromagnetic “shocking” of electronics and stressing of electrical systems, and the latter arise from the damage that “shocked”—upset, damaged, and destroyed—electronics controls then inflict on the systems in which they are embedded.
The indirect effects can be even more severe than the direct effects. The electromagnetic fields produced by weapons designed and deployed with the intent to produce EMP have a high likelihood of damaging electrical power systems, electronics, and information systems upon which American society depends.
Their effects on dependent systems and infrastructures could be sufficient to qualify as catastrophic to the Nation. Depending on the specific characteristics of the attacks, unprecedented cascading failures of our major infrastructures could result. In that event, a regional or national recovery would be long and difficult and would seriously degrade the safety and overall viability of our Nation.
The primary avenues for catastrophic damage to the Nation are through our electric power infrastructure and thence into our telecommunications, energy, and other infrastructures.
These, in turn, can seriously impact other important aspects of our Nation’s life, including the financial system; means of getting food, water, and medical care to the citizenry; trade; and production of goods and services.
The recovery of any one of the key national infrastructures is dependent on the recovery of others. The longer the outage, the more problematic and uncertain the recovery will be. It is possible for the functional outages to become mutually reinforcing until at some point the degradation of infrastructure could have irreversible effects on the country’s ability to support its population.
EMP effects from nuclear bursts are not new threats to our nation. The Soviet Union in the past and Russia and other nations today are potentially capable of creating these effects.
Historically, this application of nuclear weaponry was mixed with a much larger population of nuclear devices that were the primary source of destruction, and thus EMP as a weapons effect was not the primary focus.
Throughout the Cold War, the United States did not try to protect its civilian infrastructure against either the physical or EMP impact of nuclear weapons, and instead depended on deterrence for its safety. What is different now is that some potential sources of EMP threats are difficult to deter—they can be terrorist groups that have no state identity, have only one or a few weapons, and are motivated to attack the US without regard for their own safety.
Rogue states, such as North Korea and Iran, may also be developing the capability to pose an EMP threat to the United States, and may also be unpredictable and difficult to deter. Certain types of relatively low-yield nuclear weapons can be employed to generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects over wide geographic areas, and designs for variants of such weapons may have been illicitly trafficked for a quarter-century.
China and Russia have considered limited nuclear attack options that, unlike their Cold War plans, employ EMP as the primary or sole means of attack. Indeed, as recently as May 1999, during the NATO bombing of the former Yugoslavia, high-ranking members of the Russian Duma, meeting with a US congressional delegation to discuss the Balkans conflict, raised the specter of a Russian EMP attack that would paralyze the United States.
Another key difference from the past is that the US has developed more than most other nations as a modern society heavily dependent on electronics, telecommunications, energy, information networks, and a rich set of financial and transportation systems that leverage modern technology. This asymmetry is a source of substantial economic, industrial, and societal advantages, but it creates vulnerabilities and critical interdependencies that are potentially disastrous to the United States.
Therefore, terrorists or state actors that possess relatively unsophisticated missiles armed with nuclear weapons may well calculate that, instead of destroying a city or military base, they may obtain the greatest political-military utility from one or a few such weapons by using them—or threatening their use—in an EMP attack. The current vulnerability of US critical infrastructures can both invite and reward attack if not corrected; however, correction is feasible and well within the Nation's means and resources to accomplish.” Note: The complete report, subsequent reports, and many other key source materials are available on this website. To learn more, read the featured reports on this page.
Natural Sources of EMP EMP Caused by Geomagnetic Storm
Geomagnetic storms occur regularly and usually have effects at high northern latitudes however major storms have inflicted significant damage as in Canada in the 1980’s. A great geomagnetic storm, such as the 1859 Carrington effect, would have catastrophic consequences as the infrastructure has become more sensitive.
It is widely believed that great storms are likely to occur every 100 years. Occasionally plasma erupts from the surface of the sun which is a mass of moving, energy charged plasma. Solar flares or holes in the solar corona can also lead to emissions of an energy wave.
The eruption travels through space as a solar wind and if aligned toward the earth the solar wind shock wave can hit the earth’s atmosphere which has magnetic properties. The shock typically occurs 24 to 36 hours after a solar event and magnetic storms usually last for 1 to 2 days but can last for many days.
The solar wind will have a magnetic property or bursts of energy that can, in a large geomagnetic storm, rapidly change the magnetic field around the earth’s core leading to induced currents of energy in long metallic conductors (wires, rails, etc.).
Transformers in the Grid used to step up or step down power voltages are connected to these wires and are subject to damage in the cores where wire copper windings can melt from the induction strong of strong magnetic fields in the transformers from the increased current in the wires caused by EMP.
There are some 300 key transformers that are used in the initial segments of the U.S. Electric Grid. There are few spares and replacement manufacture can take over a year under normal conditions. Considering that these units are not manufactured in the U.S. replacements could take much longer to obtain, if ever.
The report, “Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts Workshop Report,” funded by NASA and issued by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 2008 advises of the extent such a disaster can have.
The United States has developed a society that is technologically advanced however a potential for near total destruction of these systems and the interrelated infrastructure has been built in.
Beyond destruction of major components of the Grid, most of the infrastructure of our modern society is driven by electricity. Water and sewage treatment, food distribution systems from supermarkets and distribution centers, utility station controls (gas, electrical, nuclear plants), delivery of fuel to the transportation industry, financial markets and many others all rely on electricity.
“It's just the opposite of how we usually think of natural disasters," says John Kappenman, a power industry analyst with the Metatech Corporation of Goleta, California, and an advisor to the NAS committee that produced the report.
"Usually the less developed regions of the world are most vulnerable, not the highly sophisticated technological regions." According to the NAS report, the power supply to some 130 million people can be lost in about 90 seconds.
Key elements of the electricity dependent infrastructure are then lost. Water which is pumped electrically is not available to many users immediately if they are supplied by pump and fairly soon for those who have water gravity supplied but initially pumped from reservoirs, wells or lakes.
Electrically powered transportation vehicles stop and gas fueled vehicles cannot be supplied with electrically pumped gas which would affect deliveries. Back-up generators will supply relief until fuel supplies run out. Nuclear plants are shut down when major Grid problems occur and their control systems dependent on electricity may have been damaged to the point of not functioning.
Coal plants typically have a 30 day supply and won’t be resupplied if the transportation system is lost. Hospitals basically have provisions for 72 hours emergency operation and beyond that life sustaining services are no longer possible.
As refrigeration and heating is lost food and medical supplies spoil leaving these necessities no longer usable. Factories making food and medical products are shut down making resupply impossible.
"In the US alone there are a million people with diabetes," Kappenman says. "Shut down production, distribution and storage and you put all those lives at risk in very short order."It may take months or years to even begin to rebuild the destroyed infrastructure as melted transformer hubs cannot be repaired, only replaced.
"From the surveys I've done, you might have a few spare transformers around, but installing a new one takes a well-trained crew a week or more," John Kappenman further advises. "A major electrical utility might have one suitably trained crew, maybe two." The few spare transformers are used up rather quickly.
The major transformers in the Grid are unique so up to 12 months can be required to build the specialized transformers for segments of the power supply system that has been affected. Assistance to the widespread affected areas will not occur quickly and the function of emergency equipment and services will likely be reduced.
Paul Kintner, a plasma physicist at Cornell University notes, "if a Carrington event happened now, it would be like hurricane Katrina, but 10 times worse."
Total impact for the Hurricane Katrina disaster has been reported in the $80 billion to $125 billion range. The NAS Report advises that a severe geomagnetic storm impact could be as high as $2 trillion and require take a four to ten year recovery period.
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Must Watch ~ August 15, 2011"EMP Awareness Day"EMPact America's President, Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, was a featured speaker for EMP Awareness Day, which was broadcast on CSPAN.
Click here to watch the video recording on CSPAN's web site.
http://www.empactamerica.org/mediaappearences.php#CSPAN_8-15-2011
