April 28, 2011IMF raises GCC growth to 7.8%
The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday raised its 2011 projection for GCC growth to 7.8 per cent from 5.2 per cent, and said high oil prices would also boost the six-nation group’s current account surplus growth by 124 per cent to $ 304 billion.
The Washington-based fund said GCC’s growth would gain increased momentum from Qatar, growing at 20 per cent, and Saudi Arabia at 7.5 per cent. The UAE will grow by 3.3 per cent, the Fund said.
Overall, GCC’s nominal GDP is estimated to reach $ 1.402 billion in 2011 from $ 1.084 billion in 2010. UAE’s nominal GDP is estimated to reach $ 363.8 billion in 2011 from $ 301.9 billion in 2010.
Consumer price inflation in the GCC is forecast to soar by 5.3 per cent while its pace will be slower in the UAE at 4.5 per cent, the multilateral lender said in its Regional Economic Outlook released on Wednesday in Dubai.
In the Middle East and North Africa region, inflation was expected to increase to an average of 102 per cent as concerns about food security rise.
“Some governments, particularly in the GCC (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE), will need to carefully monitor the impact of expansionary fiscal spending on aggregate demand to prevent a resurgence of inflationary pressures,” it said.
The IMF gave a separate projection for the GCC non-oil growth and said it is set to accelerate by more than one per cent to 5.3 per cent in 2011.
The IMF’s overall economic growth forecast for GCC — up from five per cent in 2010 — is far rosier than the outlook for the rest of the Middle East region as “oil production expands to stabilise global oil supply in the face of supply disruptions elsewhere.”
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