February 6, 2011
The Census and the Future of the Federal Iraq
Introduction
Efforts have been unabatedly made to perform a smooth, unbiased and reliable census for a few decades, as this could be counted as one of the cornerstones of the new Iraq that was stipulated through the new constitution that over 80% of the Iraqi people voted for. The new Iraq that wouldn't be, unless it is on the basis of choice and federalism.
The last few years problems in blocking progress on these lines that still continue are part of the struggle to return Iraq to its past and relive the dark days that were for sure a paradise for those who built their lives on an unjust philosophy that says: All what is mine is mine and All what is yours is mine. They built their lavish, high palaces to reach to the skies, forgetting the pain of falling from these false and deceptive heights.
Thanks to science and technology, information can no longer be hidden from the public forever, and for a community to survive it will have to build its principles on respect for humanity and full partnership on choice--history is full of examples. It is also clear that the sooner there is an end to narrow-mindedness and a wholehearted apology is given for all the unjust that has been done to fellow citizens and rights are returned to those who own them. By and large, the problems in implementing Article 140 are part of this struggle.
Despite the full acknowledgement of decision makers of the necessity for reliable data and information in the development process, under different justifications, progress toward the conduct of a national census is blocked and yet again the national census has been delayed--although no reliable national census for Iraq has existed since 1957. All attempts after that date have been politically oriented one way or another, and they have not covered the entire country due to the brutality of the successive Iraqi regimes and the continuing Kurdish revolution. Every plan since then has been built on estimates based on estimates themselves.
The reason for this year's delay was created by the Mosul governorate by simply stopping the enumerators-- training based on the fact that a true and complete census must have a full coverage of the entire country concerned. In this, the fact that there is a new Iraq with two full-fledged governments--one in Kurdistan Region covering the three governorates of Erbil, Suleimaniya and Duhok, with its own legislative rule in planning, decision making and implementation, and the federal government covering the rest of the country, with each controlling their own budgets. This means that putting other influencing factors aside, each side can have its own data and information in relation to the conduct of census as these are in a scientific and practical censes, for the validation of their implemented policies and their revision as they are seen necessary to improve performance.
Amongst the issues that have caused a delay in the conduct of the census in Iraq are:
1. Political parties proportional representation in the council of representatives in the federal government.
2. ?
3. Governorate and regions share from the national income.
4. I elaborate on each of these issues in turn.
Proportional
Representation
Lack of reliable data on different components of the Iraqi society gave supporters of the old system in Mosul governorate the opportunity to score a goal by increasing their representation and voice against modernizers in Kurdistan Region and some other Iraqi governorates.
Data presented in the following table is mainly based on SIGIR (Special Inspector General for Iraqi Reconstruction) (http://www.sigir.mil/reports/quarterlyreports/Apr08/pdf/Graph_-April_2008.pdf).
Although this is not to suggest that SIGIR results are correct, in the absence of reliable and unbiased information, as this organization, by its definition, intends to monitor American taxpayers" expenditure in the reconstruction of Iraq, it's reasonable to rely on it in this report.
The above numbers explain the reasons behind the insistence of the Mosul governorate to block the census process and even make sure that even if it is conducted, its results should not be allowed for use in determining the proportional representation in the Council of Representatives. As in the table above, assuming a 3% annual population increase from the figures of 2009, the estimated population figures for the year 2011 will be even higher by over half a million than the enumeration estimates that have been obtained from asking households to say freely what their family sizes are! The reliability of these figures is certainly questionable, and the insistence of relying on them is one of the stumbling blocks in the conduct of the census.
It is also worth pointing out that the census estimates that are obtained as a result of the 2010 household enumeration are unreliable. This is because they are based on uncensored questions on the size of families without checking for any identity, and it is natural that almost every family will overestimate to count for those family members who are deceased or have left Iraq for whatever reason--if nothing else then for getting their rations. The actual census requires enumerators to check the identity of every member of the family they visit before recording their names and hence reliability in the results. Therefore, it is highly expected that the actual census will result in a figure that would be lower than the one obtained from the enumeration.
The establishment of facts on the size of different components of the Iraqi society will close all the fictitious and misleading information that has been hovering around for a long time and has been used in the building of the old Iraq and to a degree has been continuing since. These corrections, once done, will certainly pave the way for building an Iraq on solid grounds that would prolong its survival. What the progressive sides are trying to do in rebuilding the new Iraq is to have a good start that is, as the English call it half of the battle--hence the proverb: A good deed is never lost.
Revenue Distribution
The other issue that has again blocked the facts is the mechanism that has been set up temporarily to distribute the shares of Iraqi revenue to regions and governorates.
As it is stipulated in the first paragraph of Article 112 of the new Iraqi Constitution:
First: The federal government, with the producing governorates and regional governments, shall undertake the management of oil and gas extracted from present fields, provided that it distributes its revenues in a fair manner in proportion to the population distribution in all parts of the country, specifying an allotment for a specified period for the damaged regions which were unjustly deprived of them by the former regime, and the regions that were damaged afterwards in a way that ensures balanced development in different areas of the country, and this shall be regulated by a law.
In the above, the word "fairness" is not exchangeable to the words that follow: "in proportion to the population distribution." In addition, it clearly stipulates the need for accounting for past and recent damages that were done to various areas within Iraq.
This sentence seems to have been read from the wrong side! Taking the population proportions as the only base and at face value for revenue distribution can never be economically efficient! Even though that has been temporarily agreed, the factor of fairness has been overlooked. The latter factors cannot simply be guaranteed through reliance on population proportions at face value. To explain this further, as it is also the case, some governorates" population growth is much higher than those of other governorates. The first is busy with making children irrespective of making sure that they get a good education and basic services, while the second is controlling population growth with a plan and making sure that they provide their children with education, health and other basic services. The current settings, if continued, will gradually reward those who just increase their family sizes with no plans for looking after them and punish those families who follow plans to build their future. Such an act will not be in tune with the contents of Article 25, which states:
The State guarantees the reform of the Iraqi economy in accordance with modern economic principles to ensure the full investment of its resources, diversification of its sources and the encouragement and the development of the private sector.
The word "fairness" has deep meaning and deserves a full unbiased and scientific interpretation and obtain consensus on revenue sharing in agreement with the constitution.
In one of my reports that was published in "Xebat" newspaper (Issue No. 2820 on 16/4/2008), I made a comment on this issue in the hope to create dialogue within the Iraqi community and the politicians for a scientific study for establishing an economically viable and efficient, yet fair, system for revenue sharing so that population proportions could be a factor, but not the only factor, in it. This, in my opinion, will form a big step in the tying different Iraqi communities together on strong grounds, and clears another stumbling block for the conduct of the census and by the same token, blocking progress.
In the same report, I referred to some information that I obtained from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency USA (http://earth-info.nga.mil/gns/html/cntyfile/iz.zip) that, out of the total of 20,531 settlements over all of Iraq, 6,723 of them fall within the three governorates of Kurdistan Region if the villages that were destroyed during Saddam"s rule were added to the list. That is, 32.75% of the settlements (including all cities, districts, sub-districts and villages) lay within the boundaries of Kurdistan Region. If other Kurdistani areas were also to be included, the percentage would be even higher.
What is also important about this graph is the lack of homogeneity in the way that settlements have established over centuries due to cultural and demographic differences in that area. The Arab part of Iraq is larger in size but smaller in the number of settlements, while the Kurdistani part is smaller in size but larger in the number of settlements. This fact distinctly annotates and distinguishes Kurdish areas of Iraq from other parts as so visibly seen from the graph. Kurdish communities, throughout their civilization, have made their settlements around water sources wherever they have found them; they have built as many homes as water sources could support and made their livelihood through farming and cattle breeding. In that way, they have survived over centuries and often in harsh conditions as they relied purely on their produce. This was the case even during Saddam"s fight against the Kurdish revolution, and that was prolonged until Saddam decided to destroy the villages and with it the livelihood of the villagers. Prior to those inhumane actions of chemical use, Anfal and the destruction of over 4,500 villages, Kurdish areas used to fill the basket of goods for all of Iraq and beyond. That made them consumers of often unwanted and under-quality goods from their neighbors.
Those who were lucky enough to escape these brutal actions left their homes behind and sought refuge in other countries, most with no background of the new community and their culture.
The new Iraq has opened a window of opportunity to those who are left behind to rebuild their lives around the opening of a new chapter in a new Iraq that is based on the rule of law and condemns brutality and unjust. The word "fairness" should include the rebuilding of all that has been damaged in addition to the knowledge that all these villages and settlements require roads, hospitals, schools and basic amenities. For this to be done fairly, it cannot only be based on population proportions alone.
It is therefore a duty for all Iraqis who dream to have a strong unified and prosperous Iraq to work together wholeheartedly to set permanent solutions to these problems, and to make sure that the past will not repeat itself.
http://www.kurdishglobe.net/display-article.html?id=E12D8EAFC81A9DF29DBD76B649A22D19
