Saturday, January 15, 2011

Vietnam Braces for New Leader

16 January 2011

Vietnam braces for new leader

Hanoi, Vietnam's ruling communists will vote Monday on who will lead the country for the next five years as the nation's focus intensifies on overhauling its troubled economic growth model.

Observers say the country faces major economic challenges, and they are closely watching for any signs of change in a political system that they see as slowly evolving despite its historic rigidity.

Foreign donors and analysts cite immediate challenges including soaring inflation, a struggling currency, a trade deficit and inefficiency among state-owned enterprises -- a key pillar of the economy.

Monday's vote is expected to elevate 66-year-old Nguyen Phu Trong to general secretary -- the top position within the Communist Party.

Some party sources say he is close to China, Vietnam's neighbour and ideological ally.

Despite signs of an internal power struggle 61-year-old Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung is thought likely to keep his position as the country's most powerful figure, in a separate election of the 17 members of the ruling Politburo.

Dung, an ambitious and media-savvy politician, is tipped to be joined by his rival Truong Tan Sang, also 61, as president.

The closed-door election by 181 members of the party's Central Committee comes as Vietnam faces urgent calls for reform and leaders have vowed to build an industrialised nation by 2020.

The new party leader is expected to be named on Wednesday but the prime minister and president, a largely symbolic post, will not be officially announced until the communist-dominated National Assembly is elected by the public on May 22.

A foreign diplomat cast doubt on whether the party's five-yearly congress that began last Wednesday would bring any meaningful change of policy, or within the party.

"The script is there," he added.

Nearly 1,400 delegates have gathered at a Hanoi convention centre, watched over by images of the party's founder and revered first president Ho Chi Minh.

Last week, at meetings closed to most journalists, they discussed a 10-year strategy that seeks to revise the country's troubled growth model.

Vietnam, where about 70 per cent of the people still live in rural areas, has relied on natural resources and unskilled labour to achieve rapid growth.

But party chief Nong Duc Manh, who is expected to retire, spoke of moving to a more advanced system of production based on science and technology.

Communist leaders have also called for a "knowledge-based economy" with reform in the education system, which experts say falls short of international standards and is afflicted with the country's rampant corruption.

Over the weekend, delegates voted for the elite Central Committee, which party sources say has taken on an increasingly important role as the communists pursue more internal "democracy" -- while ruling out significant political change, including multiple parties.

Ahead of the congress, the Central Committee rejected three people who the Politburo had sought to join its ranks to replace retirees, one party source said.

"That's why the members of the Central Committee are very enthusiastic. They say it was the most democratic session," the source said on condition of anonymity.

Carl Thayer, a Vietnam specialist from The University of New South Wales, said the Communist Party had shown "capacity to adjust and accommodate over time".

"It doesn't change the authoritarian nature of the system, but there are people in the party pushing and advocating change," he said.

But for critics of the regime, change has not been fast enough in a country that carried out a fresh crackdown against bloggers and activists ahead of the congress.

"I think something new in Vietnam is very far from us now," said one blogger, requesting anonymity.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1105026/1/.html