Sunday, January 16, 2011

GCC Economy 2011 - Dinar-Dollar Peg, Global Trade etc.. Interview ...


Confirmed that the Kingdom's participation in the (twenty) has made the Gulf states in the heart of events.

Minister of Finance of Kuwait's "economic:
Pegging its dinar to the dollar currency, the Kuwaiti side in the fallout from a turbulent exchange rate

Finance in Kuwait, that the pegging its dinar to the dollar in 2007, side Kuwaiti currency, the fallout from a turbulent exchange rates in global markets, which is expected to heat up during 2011, due to what has become known as''conflict currencies'', He pointed out that this conflict, which is caused by an imbalance in global trade in the event of continued and evolved forms, can be rolled back by force the purchasing power of Gulf oil revenues and raise the cost of non-dollar imports. He said the North in an exclusive interview with''economic''The Gulf economy will grow seriously during the current year at the rate of 6 per cent, pointing out that the GCC joint action economically today stands on the threshold of new and advanced stage,''added Yes, there are still some challenges essential for completion of the requirements of the Customs Union and to continue to build the structure of the executive organ of the Council of the GCC monetary and coordination among central banks to complement the requirements of monetary union, but the continuing cooperation can be overcome''.

Addressed the meeting in the northern path of the world economy, stressing in this regard that the challenges of 2011 can be overcome with sound fiscal policy reform of structural issues in the global financial system, and expected to achieve economies of the world's fastest growing, albeit slowly in the current year.

Increased''from a hard day uncertainty of the route of the global economy collectively as the global crisis has made the global economy split between advanced and emerging a proven fact, there are countries suffering from deflationary pressures, the other has a development-oriented''.

The meeting touched on the Kingdom's participation in the Group of Twenty, where he and the Kuwaiti Minister of Finance that such participation has made Saudi Arabia the world's oil producers and the Gulf states in the heart of events and the global economic consultations .. The meeting dealt with for a variety of financial and banking issues in the region and the world ..

Here are the rest of the interview:

Minister Let us proceed from seeing the path of the Gulf economy in 2011? Do you think that the GCC economies over the global financial crisis?

In fact, the answer to questions like these require consideration to the performance of the GCC economy during 2008 and 2009, where data indicate the International Monetary Fund that the economy of the GCC countries has been recorded in 2009, the lowest growth rate since 2002, it was not immune to financial crisis the global decline, with GDP at current prices of $ 1.07 trillion in 2008 to 864 billion dollars in 2009, and for the following reasons:

1. Significant decline in the contribution of the oil sector as a result of the low level of production as well as prices.

2. Diminished foreign financing.

3. Low rates of private investment.

Accordingly, the rate of growth of real GDP of 7 per cent in 2008 to 0.4 per cent in 2009, as well as the growth rates varied among the GCC countries is remarkable, at a time, which grew when the economy is the country at 8.6 per cent, as well as Oman and Bahrain, including more than 3 per cent each, the Saudi economy has grown weak by about 0.6 per cent, while the economy shrank all Kuwaiti and UAE increased by 4.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent respectively.

For the year 2010, have improved economic growth forecast for the GCC countries largely coincide with the gradual improvement of the global economy and its re-growth, has acquired Gulf economy recovery through three basic channels can be accomplished as follows:

1. High oil prices, which led to an increase in government revenues.

2. Continued government spending at high rates.

3. The return of foreign investment inflows to the GCC States and the resumption of credit to the private sector, which will enhance the activity of non-oil sectors.

Therefore, it is expected to increase the growth rate of real GDP to about 4.5 per cent in 2010, then to some 6 per cent in 2011.

What are the main challenges facing the Gulf monetary union and a customs union within the next year? Can we see the activity of the Gulf Monetary Council?
It must be noted the beginning of the actual accomplishments achieved in the process of GCC joint action, particularly with regard to monetary union, the Gulf, where it entered the Monetary Union Agreement to the Cooperation Council for Gulf Arab states into force on February 27 (February 2010), followed by entry into the Statute of the Council GMU its first meeting on March 30 (March 2010) in the city of Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. We can say that we stand on the threshold of a new phase of the march of the GCC joint, and as what was done to this stage of the ambitions and aspirations into the future, it also involves many challenges that need to be absorbed, so you can work to overcome them and overcome them, Perhaps the most important of those challenges continue to work to complete the construction of the structure of the executive branch of the monetary council, and a follow-up mechanisms of coordination among national central banks of EU countries to create favorable conditions to complete the requirements of monetary union, in addition to continuing efforts regarding the coordination of monetary statistics, banking and financial level GCC countries, where an inclusive, modern, and accuracy, based on a coherent approach to allow for a comparison in accordance with the considerations and criteria are clear and sound in line with relevant international standards.

On the other hand, the achievements have been made in the framework of a customs union and common market enhanced and complementary to pack the achievements made in the march of the GCC joint, where the Supreme Council decided at its twenty-second in the city of Muscat in December 31 (December 2001) to start the customs union As of January (January 2003), as was announced by the GCC common market at a meeting of the Supreme Council and its eighth session on the twenty fourth of December (Dec) 2007. In this regard, the shares of the customs union among the GCC countries to increase bilateral trade between Member States and reduce the difficulties and constraints faced by the movement of national goods between these countries, in addition to the increased specialization and competition and reduce the cost of foreign goods to the fulfillment of customs duty once in the countries of the Customs Union. In spite of that, there is still some obstacles that obstruct the march of the application of the customs union which is most important in the lack of commitment by some Member States to implement decisions concerning the customs union, and not only documents agreed upon in the framework of the Cooperation Council for exemption of national products, as well as the complexity of some procedures in for laboratory examination, inspection and customs clearance in some ports.

As for the activity of the Gulf Monetary Council, it should be borne in mind that the Council is still in the first operational stage, which requires unremitting efforts to establish the basic rules necessary for the exercise of its work and to play its role fully. During this stage, the Council is working to complete the construction of institutional and regulatory framework has, where the Council is currently working on the preparation and organized by the basic regulations and requirements for setting up his computer, the Executive Board of Directors also approved the operational budget

HE .. GCC banking sector has suffered some defaults that forced him to monitor the "huge benefits", the impact on the level of credit extended. Do you expect that this will continue, and how its impact?

You seem to mean the content of the question phase of the global financial crisis and the recent global economic .. Let me begin by commenting on what is suggested by the introduction inquiry from a correlation necessarily between allocations to meet the possibility of find some customers and the level of credit from the banking sector, which seems true to his release, one side, and as you know, the financial crises - including the financial crisis and the recent global economic - is always accompanied by negative consequences that lead to poor confidence in the markets, accompanied by a decline in the demand for credit, as well as reservation of banks in providing funding, which is not unique to the Kuwaiti banks or the Gulf alone, but he finishes as well as to most of the banks in many countries of the world.

In the sense that the slowdown in the level of bank credit report due to the natural reaction of the markets in times of crisis, which is not necessarily linked to trends banks to support their financial allocations through the formation face the possibility of defaulting customers. There is no doubt that the start of decline of the effects of the financial crisis and global economic incentive programs for the fiscal policies pursued by governments, such as, for example put forward projects for new development, similar to current development plan for Kuwait, as well as the rational use of monetary policy tools to cope with the circumstances and prevailing economic conditions, this There is no doubt things will move in economic activity and strengthening the supply side and the demand for bank credit in the light of increasing rates of spending and overall demand in the various papers.

On the other hand, the implications of recent global financial crisis has affected the financial situation of some bank clients due to the decline in levels of economic activity and declining asset values, which would have an impact on the financial conditions of banks, and impose therefore the need to take many actions, either by the banks themselves or by regulatory authorities, to contain the negative effects of that crisis on the banking sector. Among those actions for further strengthening the allocations to face the prospects find some customers, and avoid the negative impact the integrity of the financial situation of banks.

In Kuwait, as you know, the Central Bank of Kuwait in this regard, as pointed out on numerous occasions, directed banks to the need to strengthen the General Appropriations additional precautions (an increase of what is required of them under the Help menu), to be gradually on a quarterly basis . In examining the balance sheets of banks at the end of 2009 has been considered the adequacy of provisions (specific and general and prudential) that are configured to meet the risks of the activity and the need to promote it, especially for credit facilities provided by some sectors of activity, which affected significantly by the financial crisis and economic crisis, and that Taking into account the conditions of the credit portfolio as a whole and at the level of each sector, as well as conditions of the clients, especially those who face them on the information available to financial problems, in addition to the financial situation of each bank separately.

This policy is required and must continue until the certainty of providing the necessary degree of protection to the financial conditions of banks through the creation of the necessary appropriations. That goal, which is maintaining the integrity of the financial situation of banks and secured against risk, is a top priority on the one hand the central bank has been riding goals or directions in the current stage.

With regard to Ptsawlkm about is expected to continue, it is worth recalling that, after a lapse of almost two years to the emergence of the financial crisis and economic crisis, there is no doubt that the efforts and actions taken either by the Central Bank or the Kuwaiti banks themselves, has disclosed an appropriate degree for the fact that the financial situation for most bank customers, and thus the necessary degree of support required for benefits to face any negative impact on their finances as a result of dealings with these clients. However, it is difficult to predict how a specific time frame in this regard, taking into account the likelihood of a decline in the conditions of some clients as a reflection more of the financial crisis or failure of these customers to take the actions necessary to overcome the financial problems they face.

It still requires - as mentioned above - to continue the policy of support for the precautionary allocations under the main objective is to maintain the integrity of the financial conditions of banks.

We emphasize in this regard that the adoption of the principle of promoting the benefits of local banks is a proactive procedure that aims to strengthen the financial positions of these banks and strengthen their positions to face any unforeseen circumstances, a reflection more of the financial crisis and economic crisis.

Kuwait proceeded earlier to the disengagement with the U.S. dollar, how it contributed to improve the performance of the Kuwaiti economy, and highlighted the consequences of this decision?

In the context of efforts to strengthen the role of Central Bank of Kuwait in the field of design and implementation of monetary policy, thereby contributing to maintain the purchasing power of the Kuwaiti dinar, in the face of imported inflation, has issued Decree No. (147) for the year 2007, which authorized as of May 20 (May 2007), Remove the link that existed between the exchange rate of the Kuwaiti dinar and U.S. dollar exchange rate within the margins of specific, since the fifth of January (January 2003), and return to determine the exchange rate of the Kuwaiti dinar to a basket especially the currencies of countries with which Kuwait trade relations and financial President, the exchange rate policy followed in the past since 1975.

I have contributed to the policy of the Kuwaiti dinar exchange rate referred to, over the period since the last application on 20 May (May), 2007, effective in maintaining the relative stability of the exchange rate of the Kuwaiti dinar against major currencies. And highlights the effectiveness of this policy during the periods in which their rates of those currencies to sharp fluctuations in international currency markets, where limited to the movements of the exchange rate of U.S. dollar against the Kuwaiti dinar during the period of 2010 within narrow margins, and at a time which fluctuate when the exchange rate of the dollar against the other major currencies within the margins wider.

What your expectations for the path the world economy in 2011 and highlighted the effects that may drag on the GCC economies and the path of oil prices and its impact on GCC spending the year?

Global economy has experienced a difficult time in the aftermath of the financial crisis and economic crisis, rising unemployment rates significantly decreased rates of economic growth in many countries. In addition, the continued volatility in currency exchange rates and capital markets.

But despite all these implications, it is expected that the economies of the world is making progress (even if the rate is relatively slow) growth rates in private in 2011.

With the direction of the global economy to recover from the end of 2010 and 2011 there will be challenges can be overcome by sound fiscal policy with the reform of structural issues in the financial system and financial institutions in an orderly fashion.

To clarify the expectations of the world economy, perhaps more useful to differentiate between two distinct groups of countries are developed countries and emerging countries, although this category presented to the economies of the world but it must be emphasized today, the root of the difference in the nature of economic indicators and investment in the two groups.

While all expectations refer to the signs of high economic growth rates in emerging countries are accompanied by high inflation rates in the medium and long term, however, that these indicators mirrored almost to the other countries, where countries suffer developed a significant decrease in the rates of growth and low inflation rates with expect that the continuity of the path in the short term at least.

These differences become even more important today as they reflect the actual rates of productivity can be expected in any economy, which seeks all the countries of the world is to increase it until you find the way out in whole or in part from the current economic crisis.

On the most prominent effects that may drag on Gulf economies, the economies of the GCC is a leading emerging economies and applies that seen now that the economies of the high growth rates, with expectations of continuity, even if growth was slow during the next year.

But with regard to the path of oil prices and their impact on public spending Gulf

It is expected that with increased rates of growth in emerging countries, including China and India, that is also increasing rates of global consumption and infrastructure projects, which could be a positive factor for oil prices in the future. Yet this remains the other part of the world where the possibility of moving from low rates of consumption when compared to those before the crisis.

The conclusion that oil prices are expected to continue in the positive levels with some fluctuations on the path to recovery, like short-term fluctuations that occur from time to time in the labor market.

HE .. The world is today a dispute over currencies, how they affect the exchange rates and the dollar's decline in the GCC economies, and how you can fit it?

The so-called currency dispute is the other face of the external imbalances of some of the major economic blocs. As for the currencies of the Gulf Cooperation Council of Arab Gulf states pegged to the dollar the U.S., the decline in the value of the dollar necessarily mean a rise in the cost of non-dollar imports. In all cases, and given the reliance of most countries of the Cooperation Council for Gulf Arab countries on the export of oil is priced globally in U.S. dollars, the decline in the dollar exchange rate necessarily mean decline in the purchasing power of oil revenues. For Kuwait, followed the exchange rate regime based on its peg to a basket of currencies of major trading partners, and as of May (May 2007), reflecting a commercial and financial relations for the State, so the exchange rate policy is the Kuwaiti dinar contribute to reducing the impact of fluctuations in the prices of global currency exchange rates on domestic inflation.

Kingdom participates as a member of the Group of Twenty .. What is your assessment of those involved and how to serve the GCC economy .. How do you assess the economic and trade relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait?

The goal to establish a world-renowned Group of Twenty (G-20) following the crisis of the Asian tigers in the nineties is to encourage joint action to achieve economic growth and stability in the financial markets. The renewed goal of the meetings of the Group's, following the current crisis began in late 2007, where the group met in the twenty years 2008 and 2009 and 2010, a clear agenda of action is pursued to achieve the objectives of financial stability and the global economy.

With the participation of Saudi Arabia in the group they represent twenty only Arab country in that group and one of two groups of Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia, which is very important for the Arab States and the Gulf states in particular.

The Kingdom's participation in the Group of Twenty guarantee its existence in the heart of events with the makers of world politics with regard to various areas of cooperation of global economic and financial, which is increasingly important with the repercussions of the crisis and the issues raised by each day, which makes the Gulf states in the heart of the events represented in the Kingdom instead of its existence in the position of observers of the events without discussion and influence compared to if it is not the existence of such participation.

As for the economic and trade relations between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, it is excellent and fruitful relations in various fields, which is confirmed by figures and statistics of trade and economic cooperation between the two brotherly countries as well as relations and common factors that are united together in the framework of the GCC countries

http://www.aleqt.com/2011/01/01/article_485763.html