February 28, 2010
PM: Iraqi dinar re-evaluation has to do with economic conditions
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday that the process to re-evaluate the Iraqi dinar has to do with economic conditions that have to be strengthened.
“The Iraqi dinar has all the reasons to grow stronger thanks to an increase in revenues and development of the economy,” Maliki said in response to some questions through the National Information Center.
“The government would not rush matters but would rather work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is currently entrusted with drawing up a study on the whole issue and would give its decision soon,” said the Iraqi premier.
The Iraqi dinar’s exchange rate is suffering from low value against foreign currencies as a result of decades of wars and economic embargo that brought the local currency’s exchange rate to the rock bottom from three dinars per dollar in the late 1970s and 1980s to 3,000 dinars per dollar after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, followed by a 13-year crippling sanctions regime.
The exchange rate fell even more after 2003 to reach 1170 dinars per dollar due to the CBI’s policy of daily auction, in effect for more than five years now.
The policy was lambasted by several economists on the grounds that these auctions do not give the real value of the country’s local currency.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
400,000 Americans lose unemployment benefits and 2,000 federal transportation workers furloughed Sunday due to blocked legislation ...
Mar 01, 2010
Senate impasse puts federal employees out of work
2,000 federal transportation workers to be furloughed due to Senate legislative impasse
Two thousand federal transportation workers will be furloughed without pay on Monday, and the Obama administration said they have a Kentucky senator to blame for it.
Federal reimbursements to states for highway programs will also be halted, the Transportation Department said in a statement late Sunday. The reimbursements amount to about $190 million a day, according to the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.
The furloughs and freeze on payments were the result of a decision last week by Republican Sen. Jim Bunning to block passage of legislation that would have extended federal highway and transit programs, the department said. Those programs expired at midnight Sunday.
The extension of transportation programs was part of a larger package of government programs that also expired Sunday, including unemployment benefits for about 400,000 Americans.
Bunning objected to the $10 billion measure, saying it would add to the budget deficit. He didn't immediately respond to a request Sunday for comment.
The impasse has provided the administration with an opening to excoriate Republicans for allowing popular programs to run out, even if only for a short time.
"As American families are struggling in tough economic times, I am keenly disappointed that political games are putting a stop to important construction projects around the country," Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said in a statement.
Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., the Senate's second-ranking Republican leader, told "Fox News Sunday" that he expects GOP lawmakers will vote to extend unemployment benefits this week.
Furloughs will affect employees at the Federal Highway Administration, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Research and Innovative Technology Administration.
LaHood said construction workers will be sent home from job sites because federal inspectors must be furloughed.
Among the construction sites where work will be halted: the $36 million replacement of the Humpback Bridge on the George Washington Parkway in Virginia; $15 million in bridge construction and stream rehabilitation in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho; and the $8 million resurfacing of the Natchez Trace Parkway in Mississippi.
AP
Senate impasse puts federal employees out of work
2,000 federal transportation workers to be furloughed due to Senate legislative impasse
Two thousand federal transportation workers will be furloughed without pay on Monday, and the Obama administration said they have a Kentucky senator to blame for it.
Federal reimbursements to states for highway programs will also be halted, the Transportation Department said in a statement late Sunday. The reimbursements amount to about $190 million a day, according to the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.
The furloughs and freeze on payments were the result of a decision last week by Republican Sen. Jim Bunning to block passage of legislation that would have extended federal highway and transit programs, the department said. Those programs expired at midnight Sunday.
The extension of transportation programs was part of a larger package of government programs that also expired Sunday, including unemployment benefits for about 400,000 Americans.
Bunning objected to the $10 billion measure, saying it would add to the budget deficit. He didn't immediately respond to a request Sunday for comment.
The impasse has provided the administration with an opening to excoriate Republicans for allowing popular programs to run out, even if only for a short time.
"As American families are struggling in tough economic times, I am keenly disappointed that political games are putting a stop to important construction projects around the country," Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said in a statement.
Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., the Senate's second-ranking Republican leader, told "Fox News Sunday" that he expects GOP lawmakers will vote to extend unemployment benefits this week.
Furloughs will affect employees at the Federal Highway Administration, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Research and Innovative Technology Administration.
LaHood said construction workers will be sent home from job sites because federal inspectors must be furloughed.
Among the construction sites where work will be halted: the $36 million replacement of the Humpback Bridge on the George Washington Parkway in Virginia; $15 million in bridge construction and stream rehabilitation in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho; and the $8 million resurfacing of the Natchez Trace Parkway in Mississippi.
AP
POOF for FEB 28th: "I PACE, THEREFORE, I AM"
POOF for FEB 28th: "I PACE, THEREFORE, I AM"
Sun, 28 Feb 2010
WHITE RABBIT -- Jefferson Airplane
Sun, 28 Feb 2010
WHITE RABBIT -- Jefferson Airplane
One pill makes you larger
And one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you
Don't do anything at all
Go ask Alice
When she's ten feet tall
And if you go chasing rabbits
And you know you're going to fall
Tell 'em a hookah smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call
Call Alice
When she was just small
When men on the chessboard
Get up and tell you where to go
And you've just had some kind of mushroom
And your mind is moving low
Go ask Alice
I think she'll know
When logic and proportion
Have fallen sloppy dead
And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen's "off with her head!"
Remember what the dormouse said:
"Feed your head
Feed your head
Feed your head"
Greetings and Salutations;
The networks are full of all sorts of things, enough to make one question reality. The one thing that people have learned about me all these years, I have never changed the base equation because the end game has never changed. Oh, we've seen many actors on the stage play their part, but those actors were never the producers. The folks that had the power to shut the whole play down at any moment. The kind of folks who we in america, tend to not believe even exist. Sure enough tho, they do and are in the midst of changing the marquee, even as we sit and watch the present play fall apart, crumbling into the past. I would only ask one thing, in the middle of this transition, "Keep your head".
Some believe, these people have no sense of the suffering going on in the world. I insist, more than most really comprehend. What is really the difference between a slave and an indentured servant? Not much, both are dependent on a 'boss' behaving fairly. Outside conditions can temper the 'boss's' behavior. In both europe and in asia, there were people living very humbly, with documents they've passed down thru the many years within their families. Within the last few weeks all this old business has come up for being addressed and they were.
This activity has effected the world's economy and banking. Jim Rogers doesn't speak a lot any more but when he does, he always drops a bomb. The dollar is shot and here comes china. The way it's coming to me, a reset to 21st century is underway, and anybody like mr rogers who's in the middle of the action, knows this, and is acting accordingly.
The old grey mare just ain't what she used to be, gotta punch the reset button and move on. I need to say this; we believe we're all powerful in america but you gotta remember, even superman has to worry about kryptonite. Our kryptonite is banking, the fed res system, the face for the 'almighty' corporation sitting behind it. The bankruptcy has dropped down on all the chicken heads who've been running things for quite a while now and the 'pamper's' orders have increased.
All the usual suspects are in deep doo doo, they borrowed and failed to meet their debt obligations so contrary to keynesian philosophy, governments do have to pay their debts, to those who they borrowed from. You can't kill your base and think you can still get money from them. Stamping out tin coins like rome did isn't going to fly. We have the equivalent, the fed res note....followed by the british pound.
All the usual suspects are in deep doo doo, they borrowed and failed to meet their debt obligations so contrary to keynesian philosophy, governments do have to pay their debts, to those who they borrowed from. You can't kill your base and think you can still get money from them. Stamping out tin coins like rome did isn't going to fly. We have the equivalent, the fed res note....followed by the british pound.
While everyone is running around with their hair on fire about the euro, just remember this, the euro was created with the intent to shift to gold backed currency, when the time came. That time is here, and everyone is holding their powder, letting the chaos and confusion, happen. The start of deliveries, shifts the paradigm, you go to that gold standard, 21st century banking, and the brave new world. All will be explained to the people because, 'they' don't want it to repeat itself, anytime soon. This next go around, you're going to have more people involved in the political process as the corporation will have been 'gelded'.
The tsunami has gone on under the cover of the talking heads. The bankers know it and nervously make stupid statements about themselves and how they will be doing business. Oh yea, it's going to take 30 days to give you your money, sorry....wha???
The tsunami has gone on under the cover of the talking heads. The bankers know it and nervously make stupid statements about themselves and how they will be doing business. Oh yea, it's going to take 30 days to give you your money, sorry....wha???
Everyone with the stiff upper lip as they see the end right at the end of their noses. A release to deliveries has been given, but no one was sticking their neck out and proclaiming the moment of execution. It will remain a secret until the first letter arrives at someone's house. They got it done before, they'll get it done now.
Stay loose is the best I can tell anyone, much has transpired to get the stabilizers in place because there's going to be quite the shock wave go across the planet. Be well, all of you, and 'keep your head'. See ya on the sunny side.
You can email this address if you need a consultation. Donations are needed and accepted at www.paypal.com
- account 2goforth@safe-mail.com You can email this address if you need a consultation. Donations are needed and accepted at www.paypal.com
Love and Kisses,
"Poofness"
Waiting on the world to change john mayer
Me and all my friends
We're all misunderstood
They say we stand for nothing and
There's no way we ever could
Now we see everything that's going wrong
With the world and those who lead it
We just feel like we don't have the means
To rise above and beat it
So we keep waiting
Waiting on the world to change
We keep on waiting
Waiting on the world to change
It's hard to beat the system
When we're standing at a distance
So we keep waiting
Waiting on the world to change
Now if we had the power
To bring our neighbors home from war
They would have never missed a Christmas
No more ribbons on their door
And when you trust your television
What you get is what you got
Cause when they own the information, oh
They can bend it all they want
That's why we're waiting
Waiting on the world to change
We keep on waiting
Waiting on the world to change
It's not that we don't care,
We just know that the fight ain't fair
So we keep on waiting
Waiting on the world to change
And we're still waiting
Waiting on the world to change
We keep on waiting waiting on the world to change
One day our generation
Is gonna rule the population
So we keep on waiting
Waiting on the world to change
We keep on waiting
Waiting on the world to change
You can email this address if you need a consultation. Donations are needed and accepted at http://www.paypal.com%20account/ 2goforth@safe-mail.com
Asean Mulls Multilateral Agreement With US
Feb 28, 2010
Asean Mulls Multilateral Agreement With US
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is studying the possibility of joining a multilateral trading agreement with the U.S., Asean secretary general Surin Pitsuwan said Sunday.
"No definite decision has been made currently...but we are keen on strengthening this relationship," Pitsuwan told reporters at the Asean Economic Minister Retreat.
He also said that there will be an Asean delegation will be visiting the U.S to discuss the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership or TPP.
Two countries in Asean--Singapore and Brunei--are part of the initial bloc of four countries that include New Zealand and Chile that suggested the TPP idea.
Vietnam, another Asean member has been invited to join the bloc.
Last November, U.S. president Barack Obama said the country has begun talks aimed at participating in the TPP in lieu of the bilateral free trade agreements that the U.S. had previously pursued.
Meanwhile, Malaysia Trade Minister Mustapa Mohamed said that the global financial crisis had somewhat affected the progress of Asean integration but "we are still on track."
Asean has set a 2015 target for a single market under the Asean Economic Community.
Asean comprises 10 member nations in Southeast Asia.
(Dow Jones) VNBusinessNews.com
Asean Mulls Multilateral Agreement With US
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is studying the possibility of joining a multilateral trading agreement with the U.S., Asean secretary general Surin Pitsuwan said Sunday.
"No definite decision has been made currently...but we are keen on strengthening this relationship," Pitsuwan told reporters at the Asean Economic Minister Retreat.
He also said that there will be an Asean delegation will be visiting the U.S to discuss the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership or TPP.
Two countries in Asean--Singapore and Brunei--are part of the initial bloc of four countries that include New Zealand and Chile that suggested the TPP idea.
Vietnam, another Asean member has been invited to join the bloc.
Last November, U.S. president Barack Obama said the country has begun talks aimed at participating in the TPP in lieu of the bilateral free trade agreements that the U.S. had previously pursued.
Meanwhile, Malaysia Trade Minister Mustapa Mohamed said that the global financial crisis had somewhat affected the progress of Asean integration but "we are still on track."
Asean has set a 2015 target for a single market under the Asean Economic Community.
Asean comprises 10 member nations in Southeast Asia.
(Dow Jones) VNBusinessNews.com
related articles ~
APEC summit concludes, leaders issue declaration to urge new growth paradigm
ASEAN-U.S. Nov. 15th Meeting to Discuss Disaster Mgt, Flu Prevention, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons ...
Obama Hails Expanded US Engagement in Asia
Iraqi Dinar Revaluation and New Denominations ...
note ~ not sure about this news source ... but it looks good ...
What is Newsvine? http://www.newsvine.com/
Updated continuously by citizens like you, Newsvine is an instant reflection of what the world is talking about at any given moment.
Sat Feb 27, 2010
Iraqi Dinar Revaluation and New Denominations
Recently there has been many discussions about the current news in Iraq in regards to the increase of its currency value and the introduction of new denominations into the Iraqi economy that is scheduled to be brought into action sometime during 2010.
The Iraq Finance Minister issued a statement disclosing preparation of increasing the value of the Dinar against the U.S. Dollar and will in fact issue ¼, 1/2, 1, 5, 10, 25 and possibly even 1/10 or 1/20 Dinar banknotes and/or coins.
Also claims have been reported that favorable fiscal policies sought after in Iraq have contributed to the increase of the value of the Dinar against the U.S. Dollar, pointing out that the Dollar had dropped a great deal in value just over the past year and yet in another press release it has been said that the bank is indeed with great attention keeping track of the low demand of the U.S. Dollar in the Iraq markets of currency exchange.
article link ~
http://ezonez.newsvine.com/_news/2010/02/27/3958215-iraqi-dinar-revaluation-and-new-denominations
What is Newsvine? http://www.newsvine.com/
Updated continuously by citizens like you, Newsvine is an instant reflection of what the world is talking about at any given moment.
Sat Feb 27, 2010
Iraqi Dinar Revaluation and New Denominations
Recently there has been many discussions about the current news in Iraq in regards to the increase of its currency value and the introduction of new denominations into the Iraqi economy that is scheduled to be brought into action sometime during 2010.
The Iraq Finance Minister issued a statement disclosing preparation of increasing the value of the Dinar against the U.S. Dollar and will in fact issue ¼, 1/2, 1, 5, 10, 25 and possibly even 1/10 or 1/20 Dinar banknotes and/or coins.
Also claims have been reported that favorable fiscal policies sought after in Iraq have contributed to the increase of the value of the Dinar against the U.S. Dollar, pointing out that the Dollar had dropped a great deal in value just over the past year and yet in another press release it has been said that the bank is indeed with great attention keeping track of the low demand of the U.S. Dollar in the Iraq markets of currency exchange.
article link ~
http://ezonez.newsvine.com/_news/2010/02/27/3958215-iraqi-dinar-revaluation-and-new-denominations
Using the yuan helps Chinese firms avoid exchange rate risks.
Monday, March 01, 2010China to expand yuan trade settlement trial
Using the yuan helps Chinese firms avoid exchange rate risks.
China will expand a trial scheme allowing some firms to settle trade deals in the yuan currency, as businesses seek to control exchange rate risks, an official newspaper reported yesterday.
Beijing launched the pilot programme last year allowing selected regions and countries to pay for imports and exports in yuan, a move heralded as a step towards relaxing controls and eventually internationalising the Chinese currency.
China said the scheme would initially be limited to certain areas, including Hong Kong and Macau, outside mainland China, and to selected firms in Shanghai and China's main export province, Guangdong, in the far south.
The Southern Daily, the official newspaper of Guangdong, has now reported that some of those limits will be eased in an effort to consolidate the scheme.
"Recently, the relevant government authorities have agreed to no longer restrict the areas outside [mainland] borders that may engage in cross-border trade settlement in Renminbi," said the report, citing a recent meeting of Guangdong officials.
The Renminbi, or RMB, is another name for the yuan.
"Firms qualified to engage in trade in the trial areas can all engage in Renminbi trade settlement for imports," the report added.
The report did not mention exports as part of that relaxation. Nor did it say explicitly whether the relaxed rules applied to Shanghai.
The reported consolidation of the trial programme comes while Chinese officials and companies are grappling with pressure, especially from the United States and the European Union, to let the yuan rise in value to relieve their own exporters and so reduce their big trade deficits with China.
The report did not directly link the yuan settlement move to those pressures. But Zheng Jianrong, a deputy head of the Guangdong trade office, told the newspaper the rules would help trading firms cope with foreign exchange rate worries.
"Using the Renminbi as the currency for settlement helps domestic firms avoid exchange rate risks, and helps to reduce their foreign exchange transaction costs," said Zheng.
Under the programme, Chinese importers and exporters in selected areas can apply for the right to sign agreements with banks to use yuan to settle trade deals. Chinese banks in these areas then arrange contracts with banks outside the mainland to support the offshore yuan settlements.
"The trial firms will no longer be restricted geographically," said Luo Bochuan, a Chinese central bank official based in Guangzhou.
emirates24/7
Links ~ China Currency Articles ...
Iraqi PM wants to form government with Kurds
February 28, 2010Iraqi PM wants to form government with Kurds
The Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday he wants to form a coalition with the Kurdistan Alliance and the list of Allawi after the elections.
He expects that he will form the majority in the Iraqi parliament for a new government with the Kurds. He added: “The support of the Kurdish brothers is an important basis for Iraq and their vote cannot be ignored. Next to this, we have good historical ties with the Kurds. For the political process and unity of Iraq, we have to maintain these ties.”
Nouri Al-Maliki is the PM of Iraq since 2006 and the leader of the Islamic Dawa party. During his rule, his government often had disputes about oil, the Kurdish security forces and the disputed regions like Kirkuk and Mosul.
The Kurdistan Alliance consist of the governing Kurdish parties KDP and PUK. Before the elections, the PUK had meetings with the Dawa party.
http://www.kurdishaspect.com/doc022810RUD.html
Iraqi PM accused of handing out guns in bid to buy tribal votes
Sunday 28 February 2010
Iraqi PM accused of handing out guns in bid to buy tribal votes
• Claim by ex-senior spy raises election tensions
• Officials deny intelligence agency arms were diverted
• Officials deny intelligence agency arms were diverted
A senior Iraqi spy has accused the prime minister, Nour al-Maliki, of handing out thousands of guns to tribal leaders in a bid to win votes. The claim was made by Iraqi National Intelligence Service former spokesman, Saad al-Alusi, a week before Iraq's general election, in which allegations of vote buying and exorbitant handouts have become widespread.
Maliki, who faces a bitterly contested final week of campaigning ahead of the7 March poll, has been photographed handing out guns to supporters in southern Iraq, engraved with a personal message from his office. However he denies that the delivery of weapons, along with cash payments, were improper.
Alusi, who was the INIS spokesman until he was asked to move to another ministry eight days ago, said some 8,000 guns were ordered from a Serbian supplier at the end of 2008 for use by intelligence officers. However he claimed Maliki "denied our contract at the last minute and made his own contract of 10,000 pistols, which he has used as election propaganda for himself and his party.
"This was a very important contract for the intelligence service. We have no weapons to this day," Alusi said.
A government spokesman, Ali al-Dabbagh, strongly denied the allegations: "These gifts have been given to the tribes for their contribution to security. They are not connected to the election campaign. The suggestion that anything has been taken away from other bodies to use for election purposes is wrong."
Alusi's remarks are an unprecedented challenge to the prime minister's re-election campaign from the spy service that has been considered closest to his government. Founded with CIA training and money, the INIS had been thought to be mostly independent and free of interference from Saddam Hussein's former regime, or from neighbouring states.
Tensions between Maliki's office and the INIS had been bubbling throughout last year, before boiling over in August when the INIS director, Muhammad al-Shahwani was sacked by Maliki's senior staff. Alusi claimed that around 190 employees had been sacked in recent weeks as tensions between the service and its political overlord spilled over into outright hostility.
"Those who did not implement the orders of the prime minister's office were forced out. Some of them were accused of being Ba'athists. They are 25 years old now and seven years ago they would have been 18 (and too young to be involved with the Ba'ath party). It is obvious this slur is being used to hang people by a sectarian government."
The head of Iraq's parliamentary integrity commission, Sheikh Sabah al-Sayedi, confirmed that guns have were handed out to community leaders and said his commission would ask Maliki to account for money the prime minister allegedly used from government coffers for his re-election campaign.
"He has given at least hundreds of them to tribal leaders in Amara, Nasireya, Diwaniya and many other provinces, Sayedi said. "They are American-made and arrived by the middle of 2009. It is a cheap way to buy votes. Saddam used to do the same. Maliki said he gave the guns out so that tribal leaders could protect themselves. So he wants to protect them and yet judges and lawyers die every day. What is the role of the Iraqi army and police? I hope the tribes will see through this."
Awda Ali, a member of the Nasireya council in Iraq's south confirmed that the prime minister had travelled to his area last week and handed out engraved weapons along with envelopes containing one million Iraqi dinars (£560) to leaders in the area. "He said it was in gratitude for their role in improving security."
Sheikh Nouri al-Dulaimi, a tribal leader in the restive Anbar province, which is not one of the prime minister's strongholds, said Maliki's deputy, Rafah al-Essawi, had visited the area last week with "10 million dinars". But we will not be bribed like this. I think Iraqis are more aware than they used to be."
UN Security Council Ready To Lift Saddam-Era Sanctions
UN Security Council Ready To Lift Saddam-Era Sanctions
UNITED NATIONS (RFE/RL) -- The United Nations Security Council has indicated its readiness to lift remaining economic sanctions against Iraq, provided Baghdad complies with its international obligations.
The sanctions were imposed in 1991 in response to the occupation of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein's regime.
Council members adopted unanimously a presidential statement drafted by the United States that requests that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assess Iraqi cooperation on nonproliferation.
Speaking on behalf of the council, the French ambassador to the UN Gerard Araud said Iraq is now compliance with its obligations not to produce or use chemical weapons.
"The Security Council underlines its readiness, once the necessary steps have been taken, to review with a view towards lifting the restrictions in resolutions 687 of 1991 and 707 of 1991 related to weapons of mass destruction and civil nuclear activities," Araud said.
The lifting of the sanctions would allow Iraq to boost its economy, particularly in its agricultural sector. Under the current sanctions, Iraq is prohibited from producing pesticides.
Iraq's ambassador to the UN Hamid Al-Bayati said lifting sanctions has the potential to generate up to $24 billion in trade.
The Security Council did not address sanctions related to compensation payments Iraq owes to Kuwait.
UNITED NATIONS (RFE/RL) -- The United Nations Security Council has indicated its readiness to lift remaining economic sanctions against Iraq, provided Baghdad complies with its international obligations.
The sanctions were imposed in 1991 in response to the occupation of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein's regime.
Council members adopted unanimously a presidential statement drafted by the United States that requests that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assess Iraqi cooperation on nonproliferation.
Speaking on behalf of the council, the French ambassador to the UN Gerard Araud said Iraq is now compliance with its obligations not to produce or use chemical weapons.
"The Security Council underlines its readiness, once the necessary steps have been taken, to review with a view towards lifting the restrictions in resolutions 687 of 1991 and 707 of 1991 related to weapons of mass destruction and civil nuclear activities," Araud said.
The lifting of the sanctions would allow Iraq to boost its economy, particularly in its agricultural sector. Under the current sanctions, Iraq is prohibited from producing pesticides.
Iraq's ambassador to the UN Hamid Al-Bayati said lifting sanctions has the potential to generate up to $24 billion in trade.
The Security Council did not address sanctions related to compensation payments Iraq owes to Kuwait.
Iraq's Maliki sees coalition with Shi'ite rivals
February 28, 2010Iraq's Maliki sees coalition with Shi'ite rivals
BAGHDAD (AFP) - Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki acknowledged on Sunday that he would probably need partners to gain a majority after the election on March 7, and said he was ready to join with Kurdish or other Shi'ite groups.
"Alliances in forming the coming government are a must," he said in remarks carried by the state-owned National Media Center.
"Coalition with the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) and the Kurdish coalition is an important issue in building the country. These blocs enjoy historical relations that the political process and national unity need."
Maliki's comments were the clearest signal yet that his State of Law coalition hopes to join forces with rival blocs after the polls.
They might also constitute an acknowledgement that his own support may be less than anticipated -- although few political experts expected any single electoral bloc to form a majority on its own in a society as fractured as Iraq's.
Maliki, who has gathered strength and popularity since being selected as a relatively obscure compromise candidate in 2006, did well in provincial polls in early 2009, but his law-and-order message has taken a hit after a series of bomb attacks in Baghdad.
His current government is an alliance of majority Shi'ites with Kurds and Sunnis. After his strong performance in 2009, Maliki decided his ostensibly non-sectarian State of Law alliance would run against the other main Shi'ite groups.
Wheeling and dealing after next Sunday's election could mean it takes weeks or even months to form the next government.
The INA is Maliki's main rival for the Shi'ite vote, while the Kurdish coalition is dominated by the two parties that control Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region: the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
Kurds are seen as kingmakers in the polls, as their support could give any bloc decisive weight in forming a government.
The polls may mark a watershed for Iraq as it struggles to end seven years of violence since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. But they could also renew political feuds that have fueled greater violence in the past.
Maliki's broad-based alliance includes members of his Dawa party, a party founded in the 1950s to give Shi'ite Islam greater power in public life, and other groups including some Sunni tribal leaders, Shi'ite Kurds, Christians and independents.
AP
Top UN envoy to Iraq urges International Community to Back Upcoming Polls
February 28, 2010Top UN envoy to Iraq urges international community to back upcoming polls
The top United Nations envoy to Iraq today urged the international community to support the internal political process taking shape in the strife-torn country ahead of next week's parliamentary elections and allow Iraq to “normalize” on its own terms.
“I am acutely aware that despite all the talk on how to “normalize” Iraq, our international prescriptions of “normalization” might not be what Iraqis are seeking,” said Ad Melkert, the Secretary-General's Special Representative, in an op-ed in The Washington Post.
“Iraqis have a vivid sense of international interference over their long history,” added Mr. Melkert, who also heads the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI). “To break with the past, we must transform international involvement from interference into engagement.”
As a first step to advancing this effort, Mr. Melkert called on foreign politicians, diplomats, think tanks and journalists working on Iraqi issues to give political process leading to parliamentary elections on 7 March the credit it deserves.
He underscored the commitment shown by a large majority of Iraqi citizens and lawmakers in organizing the Council of Representatives elections to conform to standards acceptable to the Iraqi people and its constitution.
“Hurdles have been overcome, including voting in Kirkuk, and Iraqis abroad having gotten their say,” said Mr. Melkert. “The constitutional requirement that allegiance to the Baath spirit precludes holding public office has been a more difficult hurdle.”
In addition, about 6,000 candidates and a significant number of alternative coalitions and parties are likely to compete for the votes in the upcoming poll, he said, noting that until five years ago the people had no say in their governance.
Mr. Melkert also pointed to the controversial matter of sharing oil revenue, which he insisted must not be influenced by outside agendas, but he said that the international community could play a role in facilitating agreements for the resolution of the issue and supporting security arrangements.
“It is vital for Arabs and Kurds to agree on the future of their relations within the federal state of Iraq, including the sharing of oil revenue and the delineation of territorial and administrative responsibilities,” he said. “The objective of international engagement should be to back up Iraqi actions, not prescribe outcomes on this front.”
Highlighting positive developments in the country, Mr. Melkert said that serious efforts are underway to improve governance oil production contracts provide solid potential for revenue management Iraqi forces - despite disturbing lapses - are making progress in taking control of domestic security political debate is vibrant the media is diverse, and an election law has been agreed.
“Security threats are real, including the targeting of political candidates and election organizers, but it is unlikely that such risks could derail the process,” he said, adding that
wrangling over the exclusion of candidates with ties to Saddam Hussein or the Baathists is concerning but inevitable as Iraq transitions from dictatorship to a new politics.
“Letting the people of Iraq make their own decisions requires a change of mind and habit of many regional and international stakeholders. All stand to gain if we take the right course.”
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=33919&Cr=Iraq&Cr1=
Al-Zubaidi ... receives members of the municipal council of Sadr City and emphasizes the importance of improving service reality of the city
February 28, 2010Al-Zubaidi ... receives members of the municipal council of Sadr City and emphasizes the importance of improving service reality of the city
(Voice of Iraq) - the name of God the Merciful
دائرة العلاقات والإعلام Relations Service and Information
وزارة الماليــــــــــــــــة The Ministry of Finance
28/2/2010
Met with the Minister of Finance Baqir al-Zubaidi honorable members of the municipal council in Sadr City.
During the meeting, review the situation deteriorating service of the city due to the policies of the dictatorial regime and the city has suffered from neglect and poor services.
The Minister stressed that the next stage should be directed to the advancement of the city by this section is not electoral propaganda but the city endured decades of persecution, "many decades of neglect in addition to the approved services in the city had a negative impact" on the urban realities and service noting "the importance of discussing the project ( 10 x10) submitted by the secretariat of Baghdad for the establishment of a huge project for the city to build vertical and create all the necessary comfort to citizens of the city made enormous sacrifices.
He said "the need to broach the subject conference attended by specialists in the Baghdad Municipality, clerics and tribal sheiks in the city to reach a consensus on the launching of this strategic project.
The minister listened to the interventions by members of the Municipal Council in order to reach viable solutions to improve the service by the city and the welfare of the people of Sadr City, Mujahid.
Zebari talk about coming out soon of the «VII» means that Iraq will soon run its obligations
February 28, 2010
Zebari talk about coming out soon of the «VII» means that Iraq will soon run its obligations
(Voice of Iraq) - Statement Akoum
Informed sources commented on the statement by Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, who confirmed near the exit Iraq from Chapter VII, saying: «This means that Iraq will soon implement its commitments» The sources added: "We demand the exit of Iraq from Chapter VII, God willing, it will come out soon, but We are also with full implementation by Iraq of its obligations to Kuwait.
The sources: Iraqis now have priorities after the elections will conclude all the obligations such as respect for resolution 383 specifically work on the maintenance of border signs and the removal of abuses and to pay compensation to farmers by the property and the fate of missing persons.
In response to a question whether there is a possibility to rescue Iraq from Chapter VII of the completion of the files, such as missing sources replied: Of course there is a possibility it will be agreeing on a mechanism for implementation.
Zebari talk about coming out soon of the «VII» means that Iraq will soon run its obligations
(Voice of Iraq) - Statement Akoum
Informed sources commented on the statement by Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, who confirmed near the exit Iraq from Chapter VII, saying: «This means that Iraq will soon implement its commitments» The sources added: "We demand the exit of Iraq from Chapter VII, God willing, it will come out soon, but We are also with full implementation by Iraq of its obligations to Kuwait.
The sources: Iraqis now have priorities after the elections will conclude all the obligations such as respect for resolution 383 specifically work on the maintenance of border signs and the removal of abuses and to pay compensation to farmers by the property and the fate of missing persons.
In response to a question whether there is a possibility to rescue Iraq from Chapter VII of the completion of the files, such as missing sources replied: Of course there is a possibility it will be agreeing on a mechanism for implementation.
Clinton heading to Latin America after Chile quake
Feb 28, 2010Clinton heading to Latin America after Chile quake
Chile's earthquake, Iran's nuclear program top Hillary Clinton's agenda on Latin America trip
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's weeklong, five-nation tour of Latin America is certain to focus on the earthquake in Chile while she also tries to build support for fresh penalties against Iran.
The itinerary released before the quake Saturday included a visit to Santiago, Chile's capital, beginning Monday night. While aftershocks have rattled Chile and authorities were assessing damage, State Department officials said Clinton planned to go to Chile although her schedule of events once there may change.
But Clinton, set to depart Sunday evening, made clear she would show U.S. support for disaster rescue and recovery operations.
"Our hemisphere comes together in times of crisis, and we will stand side-by-side with the people of Chile in this emergency," Clinton said Saturday after President Barack Obama called Chilean President Michelle Bachelet to offer assistance.
Clinton starts her trip in Uruguay at Monday's inauguration of the country's new president, ex-guerrilla Jose Mujica. Mujica's election in November won praise from other left-leaning populist leaders in the region, including Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, a perennial thorn in the side of the U.S. who is cultivating closer ties with Iran.
In the Uruguayan capital of Montevideo, Clinton will see Mujica and Argentine President Cristina Fernandez. U.S. officials say she has no plans for separate meetings with other inauguration guests — for example Chavez or other like-minded leaders such as Ecuador's Rafael Correa or Bolivia's Evo Morales.
The Obama administration has been pleased by Uruguay's contributions to U.N. peacekeeping forces and Argentina's stance on Iran's nuclear program, and Clinton will encourage Mujica and Fernandez to continue those policies, U.S. officials said.
Fernandez may raise Argentina's dispute with Britain over the Falkland Islands, but Clinton is not expected to bring it up. "This is a matter for Argentina and for Britain and it's not a matter for the United States to make a judgment on," the top U.S. diplomat for the Americas, Arturo Valenzuela, said Friday.
Clinton's announced schedule puts her in Chile late Monday for talks with Bachelet and President-elect Sebastian Pinera, who takes office March 11.
Her visit was intended to showcase U.S. enthusiasm for Bachelet's message of social inclusion, particularly women's empowerment. It may take on more urgency as Chile struggles to recover for the quake. Clinton also visited Haiti days after a powerful earthquake hit that nation in January.
In Brazil, the chief U.S. diplomat plans talks with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose support the U.S. is seeking for a new round of U.N. Security Council penalties against Iran over its nuclear program.
Brazil, a voting member of the Security Council, has been reluctant to additional penalties. Its leaders have expressed a desire to improve relations with Iran, and Lula plans to visit Tehran in May.
Clinton hopes to win Brazil's backing for sanctions as well a commitment to press Iran to comply with international demands to prove that its nuclear intentions are peaceful.
"We will be telling our Brazilian counterparts that we encourage them to encourage Iran to regain the trust of the international community by fulfilling its international obligations, which we feel that they have not fulfilled," Valenzuela said before Clinton's trip.
Clinton also will attend a meeting in Costa Rica of regional foreign ministers that will focus on improving economic conditions in the hemisphere. She expects to see outgoing President Oscar Arias, who brokered an accord that ended the political crisis in Honduras last year.
Clinton will also meet with incoming Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla before wrapping up her tour in Guatemala on Friday.
In Guatemala, Clinton will meet a group of Central American leaders, including Honduran President Porfirio Lobo, who took over in late January from an interim government that had ousted leader Manuel Zelaya in a coup last June, leading to a political crisis.
AFP
First G20 Summit Preparatory Talks End in S.Korea
Monday, March 1, 2010G20 summit preparatory talks end in S.Korea
Afp, Seoul Officials from the Group of 20 developed and emerging economies wrapped up a two-day forum on the global economy in South Korea Sunday.
The forum was the first in a series of preparatory get-togethers ahead of this year's G20 summits, in Toronto in June and Seoul in November.
"It is meaningful that the G20 discussions had a first and good start for this year," Rhee Changyong, secretary-general and sherpa of the Presidential Committee for the G20 summit, said after the forum ended.
"I'm confident that South Korea, host of a G20 summit this year, will be able to do its coordinating job successfully."
The forum, held in Incheon west of Seoul, drew some 150 people from G20 members as well as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Buffett Says Housing Woes to Ease Next Year, Barring Explosions
Buffett Says Housing Woes to Ease Next Year, Barring Explosions
Feb. 28 (AFP) -- Billionaire Warren Buffett said the U.S. residential real estate slump will end by about 2011, predicting that’s how long it will take demand for homes to catch up with the supply.
“Within a year or so, residential housing problems should largely be behind us,” Buffett wrote yesterday in his annual letter to the shareholders of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. “Prices will remain far below ‘bubble’ levels, of course, but for every seller or lender hurt by this there will be a buyer who benefits.”
The worst housing decline since the Great Depression has left one in five U.S. mortgage holders owing more than their houses are worth. Record foreclosures last year flooded a real estate market already glutted with unsold property, causing new construction to fall to the lowest in at least 50 years. The fall in homebuilding is the only fix unless the U.S. decides to “blow up a lot of houses,” Buffett joked.
“People thought it was good news a few years back when housing starts -- the supply side of the picture -- were running about two million annually,” said Buffett, the chairman and chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire. “But household formations -- the demand side -- only amounted to about 1.2 million.”
Berkshire, which owns a real-estate brokerage, a business that constructs pre-fabricated houses and units that make products used in homebuilding, has suffered amid the slump. Profit at Clayton Homes, the pre-fab housing business, fell about 9 percent to $187 million before taxes, while earnings at carpet manufacturer Shaw Industries fell 30 percent.
“High-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious” will take longer to recover, he wrote.
‘Deeply Invested’
“He’s very deeply invested in this,” said Tom Russo, partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, which holds Berkshire stock. “Across his industrial companies, he’s massively poised to gain” from a housing recovery, Russo said.
Buffett joked that curbing home construction was the best of three ways to reduce supply. The other two, he said, would be to explode homes in a “tactic similar to the destruction of autos that occurred with the ‘cash-for-clunkers’ program” or “speed up householder formations by, say, encouraging teenagers to cohabitate, a program not likely to suffer from a lack of volunteers.”
Buffett’s annual communications with shareholders have won him a following of professional money managers and the moniker “the Oracle of Omaha.” He’s written passages in past years that compare investing to baseball, derivatives to venereal disease, and Wall Street bankers to Pied Pipers. The letters have been compiled into a book for those who want to study his pronouncements.
Transformative
Buffett, 79, built Berkshire into a $198 billion company through investments in firms he believes have superior management and lasting competitive advantages. His deals transformed Berkshire from a failing textile mill into an enterprise that makes candy, produces power and sells flight time on private jets. The shares traded at about $15 when he took control in 1965; the Class A stock last closed at $119,800.
Still, he and Vice Chairman Charlie Munger passed up opportunities when they weren’t able to evaluate the future of a business, even in a compelling industry, he said. That strategy has allowed the stock to perform better than the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 in every year when both Berkshire and the index have fallen.
Playing Defense
“In other words, our defense has been better than our offense,” Buffett wrote. Last year, he said, Berkshire should have made more purchases of corporate and municipal bonds because they were “ridiculously cheap” when compared with U.S. Treasuries.
“When it’s raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble,” he said. Corporate bonds returned 26 percent in 2009, compared with negative 11 percent in 2008, according to data compiled by Bank of America Corp. Merrill Lynch. State and local government bonds yielded 14 percent last year, compared with negative 4 percent in 2008.
Berkshire did extend financing to companies including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., General Electric Co. and Dow Chemical Co. during the credit crisis as other investors were withholding funds. The private deals pay dividends and interest of $2.1 billion annually, Berkshire said in a filing disclosing 2009 results. Berkshire’s net income of $8.06 billion rose 61 percent from 2008.
‘Climate of Fear’
“We’ve put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years,” Buffett wrote. “It’s been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend. Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance.”
Buffett has used past letters to discuss plans for his successor, praise Berkshire managers and confess his failings. He admitted this year to a “very expensive business fiasco” with his move to issue credit cards to policyholders at his company’s Geico Corp. auto-insurance subsidiary. Last year, he said the U.S. economy was “in shambles” after reckless lending caused the worst financial “freefall” he ever saw.
He chastised the media in the new letter for “terrible journalism” in seizing on that comment from the prior year without also reporting that he made no predictions about the direction of the stock market.
CEO Responsibility
Buffett said this year that the CEOs and boards of companies that failed during the credit crisis shouldn’t be allowed to pass blame to underlings. Boards should insist on CEOs taking full responsibility for the risk of collapse, he said. “If he’s incapable of handling that job, he should look for other employment,” Buffett wrote.
Shareholders weren’t responsible for the botched operations at some of the country’s largest financial institutions, Buffett said, “yet they have borne the burden with 90 percent or more” of their holdings wiped out in cases of failure.
Still, he said, using year-to-year stock prices to evaluate a company’s progress can be an “extraordinarily erratic” measure. Even a decade can fail to give the proper picture, as Microsoft Corp. CEO Steve Ballmer and GE’s Jeffrey Immelt found when they took over with their shares at “nosebleed” prices.
GE shares have dropped about 60 percent since Immelt took over in September 2001; Microsoft has fallen about 47 percent under Ballmer’s tenure.
Berkshire shares have risen more than 160 percent in the past decade, compared to the 17 percent decline in the S&P 500. Buffett’s company joined that index this month when it completed the largest deal of his 40-year tenure, the $27 billion takeover of railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.
‘We Sleep Well’
Berkshire had $30.6 billion in cash and so-called near cash like U.S. Treasuries as of Dec. 31, compared with $26.9 billion three months earlier, after Buffett sold stock to add to the company’s cash cushion in advance of the rail deal. Buffett used about $8 billion of that cash to help fund the acquisition.
“We pay a steep price to maintain our premier financial strength,” Buffett wrote. “The $20 billion-plus of cash- equivalent assets that we customarily hold is earning a pittance at present. But we sleep well.”
Oil revenues optimization would solve Iraq’s problems – Maliki
February 28, 2010 Oil revenues optimization would solve Iraq’s problems – Maliki
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday that the optimization of Iraq’s oil revenues would solve all the country’s problems and repay all foreign debts.
“Contracts with global oil corporations and conglomerates can also help repay all compensations for some Arab and Gulf states and meet all reconstruction obligations,” Maliki said in response to questions through the National Information Center.
Since 2003, Iraq has been seeking to have its $120 billion worth of foreign debts accumulated during the former regime’s time written off. The war-ravaged country, however, managed to get nearly half of this sum - $55 billion owed to the Paris Club of creditor nations – dropped.
Still Iraq owes a sum of $21 billion to some Arab countries, including $21 billion to the Gulf states - $15 billion to Saudi Arabia and $6 billion to Kuwait, over which negotiations are underway.
AmR (P)/SR
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday that the optimization of Iraq’s oil revenues would solve all the country’s problems and repay all foreign debts.
“Contracts with global oil corporations and conglomerates can also help repay all compensations for some Arab and Gulf states and meet all reconstruction obligations,” Maliki said in response to questions through the National Information Center.
Since 2003, Iraq has been seeking to have its $120 billion worth of foreign debts accumulated during the former regime’s time written off. The war-ravaged country, however, managed to get nearly half of this sum - $55 billion owed to the Paris Club of creditor nations – dropped.
Still Iraq owes a sum of $21 billion to some Arab countries, including $21 billion to the Gulf states - $15 billion to Saudi Arabia and $6 billion to Kuwait, over which negotiations are underway.
AmR (P)/SR
IMF Considers Plan to Offer Nations Money in Crises
February 27, 2010IMF Considers Plan to Offer Nations Money in Crises
WASHINGTON—The International Monetary Fund is considering a new multibillion dollar lending arrangement it would deploy during crises, which would offer money to countries even if they don't ask for it.
Under the "multicountry credit line," the IMF would, for the first time, make money available to groups of countries that it believes are in danger during financial crises, rather than individual nations, said a senior IMF official.
The countries wouldn't need to request the assistance; rather the IMF would make lines of credit available to those nations whose policies it deems are sound. The nations wouldn't be required to use the money.
"The fund would declare there's a systemic problem and here's line of credit for the following countries," said the official. He emphasized that a formal proposal isn't expected to be ready before September and would need to be approved by the IMF's governing board.
Board members have said they are interested in "exploring the merits" of the proposal, according to an IMF summary of board discussions.
"What we seek is a new focus and capacity to deal with systemic risks," said IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn in a speech on Friday in which he alluded briefly to the proposal. The IMF also believes that it should take a larger role in identifying threats to the global economy and warning countries about them, he said.
The credit-line concept represents further rethinking on the part of the IMF of how it should operate to ward off or handle crises. During the past few weeks, the IMF has suggested that countries might aim for a higher level of inflation than central banks traditionally do, and that countries might consider using taxes and regulation to limit surges of capital that could inflate asset bubbles. Both suggestions go against years of IMF doctrine.
During the recent global recession, the IMF eased its usual requirements that countries slash spending or raise interest rates in order to qualify for rescue loans.
It also created a new loan, called the flexible credit line, for countries whose general economic policies passed IMF review. Those countries didn't have to meet specific IMF requirements to get approved.
Even so, only three countries asked the IMF for the credit line: Mexico, Colombia and Poland. Many others didn't because they feared that turning to the IMF would signal weakness to markets and to their populace. In Asia, especially, the IMF is still unwelcome because of its heavy-handed actions during the financial crisis of 1997 and 1998.
The multicountry loan would be designed to overcome such objections.
Making money available as lines of credit, even without request, ought to lessen the "stigma" attached to IMF lending, the senior official said.
Approving groups of countries, rather than individual ones, could also help reduce the chance that a crisis would spread from one nation to another.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703940704575089784015313898.html
Kurdistan’s budget bill to be approved soon
February 28, 2010 Kurdistan’s budget bill to be approved soon
ARBIL / Aswat al-Iraq: A media adviser to the speaker of the Kurdish parliament said that he expects the draft budget law to be approved during Sunday’s session.
“A session was held on Sunday to debate the Kurdistan region’s budget. Another session will take place this afternoon to debate proposals submitted by parliamentarians on the budget bill,” Tareq Johar told Aswat al-Iraq news agency.
On Saturday, Johar said that opposition blocs in the Kurdish Parliament could not return the draft budget law to the government after they had failed to gain a majority of votes for their proposal.
Only 34 parliamentarians voted in favor of the proposal, while 66 members voted against, Johar indicated.
Three parliamentary blocs- the Change Bloc, the Islamic Union and the Islamic Group, had announced that they would stand as opposition blocs in the Parliament, refusing to participate in the current Kurdish government.
Iraq’s Poor Selling their Votes ...
100 dinars ~ ?
"There are many political parties in Iraq now trying to bribe people to vote for them," Dr Haitham Numan, Director of the Asharq Research Center in Baghdad told The Media Line.
"It's especially common in the rural areas in the south where the religious parties have been giving 100 dinars to each family promising to vote for their party. A number of political leaders have also been giving lots of money to tribal leaders to push them and their followers to vote in a particular way."
28/02/2010
Iraq’s poor selling their votes
Iraqi politicians accused of buying votes instead of campaigning for March 7 election.
Iraq is rife with allegations of vote buying a week ahead of the country's national elections.
A number of localities have reported that representatives of national political parties are offering impoverished Iraqis various sums of money in exchange for their vote. Reports have 'election agents' from various parties popping up all over the country to buy the votes of those who either need the money or are disillusioned with the country's political system and willing to sell their vote to the highest bidder.
"There are many political parties in Iraq now trying to bribe people to vote for them," Dr Haitham Numan, Director of the Asharq Research Center in Baghdad told The Media Line. "It's especially common in the rural areas in the south where the religious parties have been giving 100 dinars to each family promising to vote for their party. A number of political leaders have also been giving lots of money to tribal leaders to push them and their followers to vote in a particular way."
"It's a new phenomenon, unique to this election," he said. "In the last election the politicians did not realize that giving money was a great way for the parties to gain votes. Now there are lots of Iraqis who have no job, need money and would otherwise not vote. So the parties figured it's cheaper to just buy off poor people than to campaign."
325 seats are up for grabs in Iraq's parliament, the Council of Representatives, which once formed will elect the country's prime minister and president.
Dr Joost R. Hiltermann, Deputy Program Director at the Middle East and North Africa International Crisis Group, said the degree to which Iraqi political candidates would engage in fraud remained to be seen.
“We have to wait and see whether the upcoming elections will be free, fair, inclusive and transparent,” he told The Media Line. “With each of the previous elections there was fraud but it was not on a massive scale and the election [result] was accepted by those who participated."
Dr Hiltermann argued that while the vote may be marred by various types of fraud, the participation of a diverse spectrum of political parties was a good sign.
“We have to remember that in 2005 some groups boycotted the election," he said, referring to Iraq's 2006 elections, which a number of Sunni groups boycotted. "Obviously they did not accept the results. But those who participated in any of the elections that have taken place in the past five years did embrace the result and that is a very important indicator.”
"What is interesting in this election is that it’s an open list system,” Dr Hiltermann said, explaining that the election is less issue-focused than a typical Western election. “The voters will be able to vote for individual candidates, who are not necessarily the ones that the leaders of these parties would want to see in places of power."
"This is an election between personalities," he said. "It's a wide open election and it's very hard to make predictions. Whomever rises to the top will set the tone of the new Iraq."
"We will have to see if those elected do what the Iraqi people want," Dr Hiltermann added, "which is to have security, jobs and access to essential services.”
Sectarian tensions have been high ahead of the elections after 145 candidates were banned from the poll due to alleged ties to the Ba'ath party, which ruled Iraq under former President Saddam Hussein. While the ban affects more Shi'ites than Sunnis, many of the banned politicians have depicted the move as orchestrated by Iran in order to install Shi'ite dominated government that would be obedient to its interests.
The elections were very nearly boycotted by a major party after Saleh al-Mutlaq, who heads the second-largest Sunni bloc in parliament, was personally banned from the poll by Iraq's Justice and Accountability Commission. Al-Mutlaq eventually backed down from threats to boycott the elections, which at the time sparked fears that his party would pull out and lead to a unilateral Sunni boycott of the poll. Al-Mutlaq leads the National Dialogue Front, which has 11 seats in the outgoing legislature.
AP
"There are many political parties in Iraq now trying to bribe people to vote for them," Dr Haitham Numan, Director of the Asharq Research Center in Baghdad told The Media Line.
"It's especially common in the rural areas in the south where the religious parties have been giving 100 dinars to each family promising to vote for their party. A number of political leaders have also been giving lots of money to tribal leaders to push them and their followers to vote in a particular way."
Iraq’s poor selling their votes
Iraqi politicians accused of buying votes instead of campaigning for March 7 election.
Iraq is rife with allegations of vote buying a week ahead of the country's national elections.
A number of localities have reported that representatives of national political parties are offering impoverished Iraqis various sums of money in exchange for their vote. Reports have 'election agents' from various parties popping up all over the country to buy the votes of those who either need the money or are disillusioned with the country's political system and willing to sell their vote to the highest bidder.
"There are many political parties in Iraq now trying to bribe people to vote for them," Dr Haitham Numan, Director of the Asharq Research Center in Baghdad told The Media Line. "It's especially common in the rural areas in the south where the religious parties have been giving 100 dinars to each family promising to vote for their party. A number of political leaders have also been giving lots of money to tribal leaders to push them and their followers to vote in a particular way."
"It's a new phenomenon, unique to this election," he said. "In the last election the politicians did not realize that giving money was a great way for the parties to gain votes. Now there are lots of Iraqis who have no job, need money and would otherwise not vote. So the parties figured it's cheaper to just buy off poor people than to campaign."
325 seats are up for grabs in Iraq's parliament, the Council of Representatives, which once formed will elect the country's prime minister and president.
Dr Joost R. Hiltermann, Deputy Program Director at the Middle East and North Africa International Crisis Group, said the degree to which Iraqi political candidates would engage in fraud remained to be seen.
“We have to wait and see whether the upcoming elections will be free, fair, inclusive and transparent,” he told The Media Line. “With each of the previous elections there was fraud but it was not on a massive scale and the election [result] was accepted by those who participated."
Dr Hiltermann argued that while the vote may be marred by various types of fraud, the participation of a diverse spectrum of political parties was a good sign.
“We have to remember that in 2005 some groups boycotted the election," he said, referring to Iraq's 2006 elections, which a number of Sunni groups boycotted. "Obviously they did not accept the results. But those who participated in any of the elections that have taken place in the past five years did embrace the result and that is a very important indicator.”
"What is interesting in this election is that it’s an open list system,” Dr Hiltermann said, explaining that the election is less issue-focused than a typical Western election. “The voters will be able to vote for individual candidates, who are not necessarily the ones that the leaders of these parties would want to see in places of power."
"This is an election between personalities," he said. "It's a wide open election and it's very hard to make predictions. Whomever rises to the top will set the tone of the new Iraq."
"We will have to see if those elected do what the Iraqi people want," Dr Hiltermann added, "which is to have security, jobs and access to essential services.”
Sectarian tensions have been high ahead of the elections after 145 candidates were banned from the poll due to alleged ties to the Ba'ath party, which ruled Iraq under former President Saddam Hussein. While the ban affects more Shi'ites than Sunnis, many of the banned politicians have depicted the move as orchestrated by Iran in order to install Shi'ite dominated government that would be obedient to its interests.
The elections were very nearly boycotted by a major party after Saleh al-Mutlaq, who heads the second-largest Sunni bloc in parliament, was personally banned from the poll by Iraq's Justice and Accountability Commission. Al-Mutlaq eventually backed down from threats to boycott the elections, which at the time sparked fears that his party would pull out and lead to a unilateral Sunni boycott of the poll. Al-Mutlaq leads the National Dialogue Front, which has 11 seats in the outgoing legislature.
AP
February 28, 2010 ~ Iraqi dinar re-evaluation has to do with economic conditions ...
Bumped ~ remember this?
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday that the process to re-evaluate the Iraqi dinar has to do with economic conditions that have to be strengthened.
“The Iraqi dinar has all the reasons to grow stronger thanks to an increase in revenues and development of the economy,” Maliki said in response to some questions through the National Information Center.
“The government would not rush matters but would rather work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is currently entrusted with drawing up a study on the whole issue and would give its decision soon,” said the Iraqi premier.
The Iraqi dinar’s exchange rate is suffering from low value against foreign currencies as a result of decades of wars and economic embargo that brought the local currency’s exchange rate to the rock bottom from three dinars per dollar in the late 1970s and 1980s to 3,000 dinars per dollar after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, followed by a 13-year crippling sanctions regime.
The exchange rate fell even more after 2003 to reach 1170 dinars per dollar due to the CBI’s policy of daily auction, in effect for more than five years now.
The policy was lambasted by several economists on the grounds that these auctions do not give the real value of the country’s local currency.
AmR (S)/SR
February 28, 2010 - 04:36:11
PM: Iraqi dinar re-evaluation has to do with economic conditions
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said on Sunday that the process to re-evaluate the Iraqi dinar has to do with economic conditions that have to be strengthened.
“The Iraqi dinar has all the reasons to grow stronger thanks to an increase in revenues and development of the economy,” Maliki said in response to some questions through the National Information Center.
“The government would not rush matters but would rather work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) is currently entrusted with drawing up a study on the whole issue and would give its decision soon,” said the Iraqi premier.
The Iraqi dinar’s exchange rate is suffering from low value against foreign currencies as a result of decades of wars and economic embargo that brought the local currency’s exchange rate to the rock bottom from three dinars per dollar in the late 1970s and 1980s to 3,000 dinars per dollar after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, followed by a 13-year crippling sanctions regime.
The exchange rate fell even more after 2003 to reach 1170 dinars per dollar due to the CBI’s policy of daily auction, in effect for more than five years now.
The policy was lambasted by several economists on the grounds that these auctions do not give the real value of the country’s local currency.
AmR (S)/SR
a summary of news reports posted until 04:00 p.m. Baghdad local time Sunday – Feb. 28, 2010
News Summary February 28, 2010 - 01:00:04
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Following is a summary of news reports posted until 04:00 p.m. Baghdad local time Sunday – Feb. 28:
* Politics:
BAGHDAD - Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday said that Iraqi-Syrian ties are getting better.
DUHUK - The Chaldean Church in northern Iraq has organized a silent demonstration to express solidarity with the Christians in Mosul City, who were the target of several terrorist attacks.
BAGHDAD - Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has announced his intention to form a coalition with the Kurdistan Alliance (KA) after the upcoming parliamentary election.
* Security:
ANBAR - A car bomb on Sunday detonated in eastern Ramadi, leaving an unknown number of casualties, a local police source said.
KIRKUK - Police forces on Sunday found an unidentified body in downtown Kirkuk City, a local police chief said.
ANBAR - The car bomb blast that rocked eastern Ramadi earlier today was meant to target an Iraqi List candidate in the city, according to a local police source.
WASSIT - One Iraqi serviceman was killed with a silencer-equipped gun in downtown Kut, a local security source said on Sunday.
BASRA - Twelve wanted persons were arrested and four anti-aircraft rockets were seized during search raids in different parts of Basra, a local security source said on Sunday.
BAGHDAD - Three civilians were wounded in two separate blasts in central and south of Baghdad, a local police source said on Sunday.
* Economy:
BAGHDAD - The Iraqi Ministry of Trade said that this year’s allocations for ration card items are insufficient, adding that a supplementary budget might be provided for this purpose.
ARBIL - A media adviser to the speaker of the Kurdish parliament said that he expects the draft budget law to be approved during Sunday’s session.
BAGHDAD - The Central Bank of Iraq’s (CBI) dollar sales rose to $102.642 million in its daily auction on Sunday, compared to $89.812 million in the previous session.
*** March 1st ~ Finance ~ The Date of Cashing Retired Workers
Bumped ~
February 21, 2010
February 21, 2010Finance: the first of March, the date of cashing retired workers
Calling the Department of pension and social security of workers, one of the formations of the national pension of the Ministry of Finance, cashing retired workers in the first of March.
An official source in the Chamber of the Press Department at the National Center for Information will be cashing retired workers for the months of January and February through the post offices and in accordance with the new rates set by the Council of Ministers.
The source explained that the specific amounts for those who have service up to (30) years and above will be (200) thousand dinars, and owners of service without the (30) years will be (170) thousand dinars, adding that the family of deceased pensioner, which has more than three eligible to be spent (150) thousand dinars.
The source added that the family of the deceased, consisting of retired beneficiaries would pay them (140) thousand dinars, consisting of one receivable receive (130) thousand dinars.
The source urged all retirees covered by those provisions for a review of post offices for the purpose of receiving their allocations, Mstsahpin with ID card and identity scheme.
Calling the Department of pension and social security of workers, one of the formations of the national pension of the Ministry of Finance, cashing retired workers in the first of March.
An official source in the Chamber of the Press Department at the National Center for Information will be cashing retired workers for the months of January and February through the post offices and in accordance with the new rates set by the Council of Ministers.
The source explained that the specific amounts for those who have service up to (30) years and above will be (200) thousand dinars, and owners of service without the (30) years will be (170) thousand dinars, adding that the family of deceased pensioner, which has more than three eligible to be spent (150) thousand dinars.
The source added that the family of the deceased, consisting of retired beneficiaries would pay them (140) thousand dinars, consisting of one receivable receive (130) thousand dinars.
The source urged all retirees covered by those provisions for a review of post offices for the purpose of receiving their allocations, Mstsahpin with ID card and identity scheme.
vinTV
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Attempts to send a new UN envoy to investigate the bloody bombings in Baghdad
February 28, 2010Attempts to send a new UN envoy to investigate the bloody bombings in Baghdad
Maliki reaffirms the importance of the failure of foreign plans
بغداد - النجف - الصباح Baghdad - Najaf - Al Sabah
See the corridors of the United Nations in New York diplomatic moves to send a new UN envoy to Iraq, following up the bloody bombings in Baghdad that took place last year.
This coincides with the assurances of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki sought to foil the schemes of State that you want evil sons of the people.
Prime Minister said during his visit to the province of Najaf yesterday: «should be taken a courageous stand for those who work against the country, and not to allow any party to interfere in the Iraqi issue.
He said al-Maliki: that there are third parties you want evil to Iraq and its people, voting in the election is effective to respond decisively against these criminal schemes.
Middle of this picture, diplomatic sources for »morning» to the movements and efforts being made by Iraq's mission at the United Nations to promote and activate the file bombings and not neglect internationally.
The sources indicated that the Iraqi move is backed by a number of sizeable enough by the States, especially by the major countries.
It should be noted that the Secretary General of the Council of Ministers on the Keywords have been made clear in a statement to Sabah recent, on the government's efforts to intensify diplomatic moves at the United Nations request to activate the formation of an international court of inquiry to examine the file of terror and retribution from the perpetrators of criminal recent bombings.
Sources confirm that the good and the Iraqi actions designed to appoint a new envoy to the United Nations in Iraq on the terrorist bombings in the coming weeks, especially with the submission of documents and documents on all of your file investigations of the bombings, saying that the new envoy will be limited to its mission to explore the possibility of forming an international tribunal for the punishment of those involved with the bombings.
He was a member of the Security and Defense Committee in Parliament MP Hassan Sinead has revealed the receipt of government and parliament on the positive signals in this regard a report prepared by UN special envoy to Iraq Taranco Oscar Fernandez, noting that Iraq is working to close this file during the next term to ensure non-interference of regional actors.
In New York, also, UN Security Council adopted yesterday evening a presidential statement on the lifting of restrictions imposed on Iraq in the field of disarmament and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and abolish the ban on scientific research in preparation for the country's emergence from Chapter VII of money.
The Security Council welcomed the action taken by the Government, which demonstrate their full commitment of the international system in preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
He also praised the Security Council in its presidential statement of a letter by Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq's accession to the Treaty on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on Their Destruction, and intended to sign the Hague Code of Conduct to prevent the spread of ballistic missiles.
And the price of the Iraq signing an additional protocol to comprehensive safeguards agreement of the International Atomic Energy Agency reaffirmed its commitment to the country's independence, sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity, stressing the importance of stability and security for Iraq and the people of the region and the entire international community.
تفاصيل موسعة ص2
Iraqi government submitted a plan to the Security Council to consider the inherited debt and reparations
2/27/2010 9:08:26Iraqi government submitted a plan to the Security Council to consider the inherited debt and reparations
BAGHDAD (Drabin): completed the Special Committee in charge of developing mechanisms to ensure the protection of Iraqi funds deposited abroad after the end of the mandate of the Development Fund for Iraq funds its work in preparing the final report for submission to the Council of Ministers.
According to a statement released today that the committee reached after a series of meetings to draft a preliminary report includes the provision of a work plan and timetable to ensure that the transition mechanism subsequent to the Development Fund for Iraq by the end of the year.
The project also includes a government plan for the consideration of debt and compensation claims inherited from the former regime and the liquidation of its files and committee will report to the Council of Ministers to be approved and submitted to the UN Security Council through the Committee on the Iraqi financial experts prior to the date when the first of April next implementation of paragraphs (4, 5) of the UN Security Council Resolution 1905.
The statement noted that the committee considers the draft report contained in the current proposals and recommendations can be fulfilled at the present time the obligations of Iraq over the UN Security Council resolution to complete the rest of the procedures and obligations of the Government in the coming months of this year.
The committee has been formed by a decision of the Council of Ministers on the nineteenth of last January, headed by Dr. Rose Nouri Shawis Deputy Prime Minister and membership of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Finance, Planning and oil, Justice and Central Bank Governor and Chairman of the Financial Inspection Office and Advisor to the Prime Minister of Legal Affairs.
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GCC economies set for a sharp rebound in 2010
Dollar peg is here to stay~
"The GCC's exchange rate pegs to the US dollar and is expected to remain unchanged over the next couple of years (with Kuwait retaining its peg to a dollar heavy basket of currencies)"
"The GCC's exchange rate pegs to the US dollar and is expected to remain unchanged over the next couple of years (with Kuwait retaining its peg to a dollar heavy basket of currencies)"
Sunday, February 28, 2010
GCC economies set for a sharp rebound in 2010
Strong domestic demand will increase inflation marginally this year.
After suffering from one of the most turbulent periods, the economies of Gulf oil producers are set to sharply rebound in 2010 while their public finances will largely improve and stock markets head for sustained recovery, said a latest economic report.
Inflation in the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, which control nearly 45 per cent of the world's proven oil wealth, will pick up again this year, but it will be a slight increase as a sign of strong domestic demand and it will likely be far below the 2008 record rates.
The improvement in oil prices this year means higher current account surpluses for the six members and this will result in additional income for their sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) that were severely hit by the 2008 global fiscal distress.
In a 15-page study on the GCC, the Saudi American Bank Group (Samba), one of the largest banks in Saudi Arabia, presented a positive outlook on the region's economies, finances and capital markets in 2010 and said member states are expected to stick to the dollar and keep interest rates low.
Samba noted that the GCC as a whole managed to weather the global slowdown reasonably well in 2009, posting an estimated real GDP growth rate of just under one per cent despite a surge in the GDP of some members. Key to this resilience was the robust policy response by GCC governments who pumped liquidity and support into regional banking systems to offset the sharp decline in capital flows and asset values, the bank said in it report.
They also adopted strong counter cyclical fiscal policies, boosting public spending to counter the slump in private sector activity.
In this, it said, they were aided by recovering oil prices during the year which also allowed most to continue running fiscal and current account surpluses. As a result, non-oil growth of gross domestic product was sustained, helping moderate the negative impact of the steep drop in oil production and revenues as Opec quotas were cut and annual average oil prices declined.
According to Samba, star performers in 2009 were Qatar and Oman which posted estimated growth rates of 9.4 and 3.7 per cent, respectively.
In contrast to the rest of the GCC, both countries benefited from positive growth in their hydrocarbons sectors as a sharp rise in LNG output in Qatar offset a decline in oil production while, not being constrained by Opec quotas, Oman was able to continue to raise its oil output.
Outlook for 2010
"Prospects for 2010 are largely positive. With crude oil prices projected to average $75 a barrel, GCC economies will be flush with revenues which can be used to finance the economic transformations currently underway. The announced budgets in the region confirm the intentions of GCC governments to actively pursue their development and diversification agendas, with large spending planned on infrastructure projects," the study said.
"Although the scope to raise oil output will be limited for Opec members given the still weak market fundamentals, some moderate production gains combined with increasing investment activity will ensure a return to oil sector growth. Meanwhile, growth in the non-oil sector is likely to pick up in response to the improving global environment and the sustained fiscal stimulus."
But the study believed it would take some time for private sector activity to fully recover as lingering problems remain in some real estate and corporate sectors. "In many cases consumer balance sheets are still stretched, and credit availability is likely to continue to be somewhat strained, curtailing prospects for private investment. Nonetheless, in most cases the situation will be measurably better than last year, and overall we expect a strong rebound in GCC real GDP growth to five per cent in 2010. This figure is significantly boosted by our 18.1 per cent projection for Qatar, which is driven by further scheduled large increases in LNG output. We also expect Oman to grow by six per cent as additional oil output gains combine with sustained growth in its non-oil sector."
UAE growth
While Saudi Arabia's economy, the largest in the Middle East, should rebound to grow by close to four per cent, growth in the UAE will be partly affected by weak property prices and constrained credit, the report said.
It projected growth in the UAE, the second largest Arab economy, at around two per cent this year and that of Kuwait and Bahrain at three and 1.8 per cent respectively. The report expected the UAE's oil output to edge up to around 2.33 million bpd this year from about 2.25 million bpd in 2009.
Analysts said the UAE could record higher growth in case it increased oil supplies in line with any new decision by the 12-nation Opec to raise output in response to improved global demand in the second half of 2010.
"Any increase in oil production by the UAE and other Gulf countries this year means there will be growth in the oil sector. This will combine with an expected growth in the non-oil sector to contribute to better performance in their GDP," said Malik Younus, senior economist at the Saudi National Commercial Bank.
Project finance
Turning to project finance, Samba said it saw better prospects in 2010 after a sharp slowdown in 2009 because of the squeeze in funding by global banks.
It noted that many GCC governments began to shift priority infrastructure developments more fully into the public sector domain, particularly in Saudi Arabia, following the global credit tightness last year.
"This should ensure financing, either directly or through capital markets. The Qatar and Abu Dhabi governments issued bonds worth $10 billion (Dh3.67bn) and $3bn respectively in the latter part of 2009 to help fund planned projects," it said. "In addition, we believe there will be a slow but steady return of international bank financing, although this will initially focus on extremely strong project sponsors with government backing, such as the recent international bank financing component for Saudi Aramco's Jubail refinery project.
"Greater attention will be paid to the viability of projects, particularly those in real estate, and the nature of any assumed government support for project sponsors."
Citing MEED data, the report said the GCC project pipeline remains ambitious, with an estimated $2.8 trillion of ventures scheduled.
Credit recovery
Samba expected an improvement in credit growth through 2010 after a sharp decline in 2009 despite strong government intervention and support to banks.
It said tighter bank lending conditions, combined with corporate and individual deleveraging, caused annual domestic credit growth to plunge to low single digits for all but Qatar, where credit grew by 14.3 per cent.
In contrast, credit growth essentially stagnated in Saudi Arabia, with central bank data showing a contraction of 0.3 per cent in 2009. "The outlook for 2010 is more promising as the GCC governments spend increasing oil revenues and capital inflows improve – although the banks' access to international wholesale funding markets may remain tight until the second half of the year," Samba said.
"GCC banks start 2010 well capitalised and well provisioned providing a sound basis for growth. Interbank rates remain relatively low, although the UAE has seen a recent uptick due to concerns over debt restructuring, while rates in Qatar remain comparatively elevated given the authorities' decision to maintain higher policy rates in the face of previously soaring credit growth."
Inflation
As for inflation, which dived from around 11.1 per cent in 2008 to 2.5 per cent in 2009, Samba expected the rate to pick up slightly this year. While the GCC economies are projected to recover, aggregate demand growth will be modest, and credit growth comparatively restrained despite the accommodative monetary policy stance, it said.
In addition, after the sharp downturn in activity last year, capacity constraints have eased considerably in the region, particularly in the real estate sector.
"Rents account for a large share of GCC consumer price indices (CPI) and thus developments in real estate have a major bearing on inflationary developments. This was evident in Qatar and the UAE during 2009 when inflation dropped sharply (turning to deflation in Qatar) in line with the real estate downturn."
Public finance
Turning to public finances, Samba said it expected stronger oil prices in 2010 to prompt GCC nations to maintain their counter-crisis fiscal measures and at the same time widen their current account surplus. "The strength of GCC public finances will return as a major theme in 2010 as oil prices hold on to recent gains, raising fiscal and current account surpluses, and adding to the region's large external savings," it said.
"In 2010, GCC governments are expected to maintain the expansionary fiscal policy of recent years, which has provided the main driver of growth in the region. We expect government spending will rise by around 14 per cent this year to a record $354bn, bolstered by stronger oil prices."
In tandem with fiscal balances, the external balance of the GCC should improve as stronger oil and gas revenues, accompanied by a revival in petrochemical and non-hydrocarbon exports, boost the current account position, it said.
"Healthy current account surpluses will allow the GCC states to continue growing their substantial external assets which have provided a vital buffer during the global slowdown. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, the bulk of GCC states foreign assets are managed through SWFs," Samba said.
"Unfortunately, little information is publicly available on the assets under management by these SWFs. However, we believe that recovering global equity prices and replenishment from sustained current account surpluses resulted in an increase in value during 2009 which we expect will be repeated this year."
Quoting estimates by the Washington-based Institute of International Finance, Samba said the GCC's net foreign asset position improved by around $111bn in 2009 and will grow by $146bn this year to total $1.35trn. "Available data on GCC central bank reserves confirm this trend, with most members managing to build reserve levels in 2009 despite lower oil prices."
Stock markets
Samba's forecasts about the GCC stock markets showed they would be supported by the recovery and head for a steady improvement this year. It pointed to an economic upswing, stronger oil prices, sustained fiscal stimulus in the region and a recovery in global trade.
"From a macroeconomic perspective, the foundation is in place for a sustained improvement in GCC equity markets during 2010. Liquidity conditions are expected to improve, real estate sector is stabilising and possibly returning to growth in some cases.
"After relatively weak performances in 2009, corporate earnings should revive (consensus earnings growth for 2010 is around 23 per cent).Having been held back by higher provisioning in 2009, bank earnings should also recover," the report said.
According to the study, the prospect of bubbles forming in some emerging market equities does not apply to the GCC where the potential for catch up remains strong. The trailing PE ratio for the GCC stands at 13.2 per cent compared with around 18 per cent for emerging market equities, it said.
"GCC markets will remain sensitive to developments in global equities, which are likely to be volatile within a positive upward trend. However, while we anticipate gains for the year as a whole, a number of factors may limit the upside potential for some of the region's stock markets," it said.
Dollar peg is here to stay
The GCC's exchange rate pegs to the US dollar and is expected to remain unchanged over the next couple of years (with Kuwait retaining its peg to a dollar heavy basket of currencies).
Despite continued progress towards the stated goal of monetary union involving Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, announcements from GCC officials concede that this is still a long-term project. "In the meantime, efforts will continue to develop and build the necessary institutions and capacity to launch a viable single currency, starting with the central bank to be based in Riyadh," Samba said. "Given the retention of the dollar peg, GCC monetary policy will continue to be driven by the actions of the US Federal Reserve," it said.
"We thus anticipate a continuation of low policy rates in 2010. As in the US, we expect inflation to be muted in the GCC, and thus do not expect a return of the exchange rate pressures that emerged in 2007-2008. Current forward markets continue to reflect confidence in the dollar peg and are not pricing in any significant revaluation pressure within the next 12 months."
But Samba said it expected the peg to continue to be an area of debate as inflationary pressures mount at a time when governments will be reluctant to use fiscal policy to influence domestic activity.
"While we recognise the benefits of currency flexibility and an independent monetary policy, we hold the view that the dollar peg currently remains the best option. The dollar peg helps minimise exchange rate volatility and provides a credible and easily understood anchor for monetary policy," it said.
Emirates 24/7 2010
GCC economies set for a sharp rebound in 2010
Strong domestic demand will increase inflation marginally this year.
After suffering from one of the most turbulent periods, the economies of Gulf oil producers are set to sharply rebound in 2010 while their public finances will largely improve and stock markets head for sustained recovery, said a latest economic report.
Inflation in the six-nation Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries, which control nearly 45 per cent of the world's proven oil wealth, will pick up again this year, but it will be a slight increase as a sign of strong domestic demand and it will likely be far below the 2008 record rates.
The improvement in oil prices this year means higher current account surpluses for the six members and this will result in additional income for their sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) that were severely hit by the 2008 global fiscal distress.
In a 15-page study on the GCC, the Saudi American Bank Group (Samba), one of the largest banks in Saudi Arabia, presented a positive outlook on the region's economies, finances and capital markets in 2010 and said member states are expected to stick to the dollar and keep interest rates low.
Samba noted that the GCC as a whole managed to weather the global slowdown reasonably well in 2009, posting an estimated real GDP growth rate of just under one per cent despite a surge in the GDP of some members. Key to this resilience was the robust policy response by GCC governments who pumped liquidity and support into regional banking systems to offset the sharp decline in capital flows and asset values, the bank said in it report.
They also adopted strong counter cyclical fiscal policies, boosting public spending to counter the slump in private sector activity.
In this, it said, they were aided by recovering oil prices during the year which also allowed most to continue running fiscal and current account surpluses. As a result, non-oil growth of gross domestic product was sustained, helping moderate the negative impact of the steep drop in oil production and revenues as Opec quotas were cut and annual average oil prices declined.
According to Samba, star performers in 2009 were Qatar and Oman which posted estimated growth rates of 9.4 and 3.7 per cent, respectively.
In contrast to the rest of the GCC, both countries benefited from positive growth in their hydrocarbons sectors as a sharp rise in LNG output in Qatar offset a decline in oil production while, not being constrained by Opec quotas, Oman was able to continue to raise its oil output.
Outlook for 2010
"Prospects for 2010 are largely positive. With crude oil prices projected to average $75 a barrel, GCC economies will be flush with revenues which can be used to finance the economic transformations currently underway. The announced budgets in the region confirm the intentions of GCC governments to actively pursue their development and diversification agendas, with large spending planned on infrastructure projects," the study said.
"Although the scope to raise oil output will be limited for Opec members given the still weak market fundamentals, some moderate production gains combined with increasing investment activity will ensure a return to oil sector growth. Meanwhile, growth in the non-oil sector is likely to pick up in response to the improving global environment and the sustained fiscal stimulus."
But the study believed it would take some time for private sector activity to fully recover as lingering problems remain in some real estate and corporate sectors. "In many cases consumer balance sheets are still stretched, and credit availability is likely to continue to be somewhat strained, curtailing prospects for private investment. Nonetheless, in most cases the situation will be measurably better than last year, and overall we expect a strong rebound in GCC real GDP growth to five per cent in 2010. This figure is significantly boosted by our 18.1 per cent projection for Qatar, which is driven by further scheduled large increases in LNG output. We also expect Oman to grow by six per cent as additional oil output gains combine with sustained growth in its non-oil sector."
UAE growth
While Saudi Arabia's economy, the largest in the Middle East, should rebound to grow by close to four per cent, growth in the UAE will be partly affected by weak property prices and constrained credit, the report said.
It projected growth in the UAE, the second largest Arab economy, at around two per cent this year and that of Kuwait and Bahrain at three and 1.8 per cent respectively. The report expected the UAE's oil output to edge up to around 2.33 million bpd this year from about 2.25 million bpd in 2009.
Analysts said the UAE could record higher growth in case it increased oil supplies in line with any new decision by the 12-nation Opec to raise output in response to improved global demand in the second half of 2010.
"Any increase in oil production by the UAE and other Gulf countries this year means there will be growth in the oil sector. This will combine with an expected growth in the non-oil sector to contribute to better performance in their GDP," said Malik Younus, senior economist at the Saudi National Commercial Bank.
Project finance
Turning to project finance, Samba said it saw better prospects in 2010 after a sharp slowdown in 2009 because of the squeeze in funding by global banks.
It noted that many GCC governments began to shift priority infrastructure developments more fully into the public sector domain, particularly in Saudi Arabia, following the global credit tightness last year.
"This should ensure financing, either directly or through capital markets. The Qatar and Abu Dhabi governments issued bonds worth $10 billion (Dh3.67bn) and $3bn respectively in the latter part of 2009 to help fund planned projects," it said. "In addition, we believe there will be a slow but steady return of international bank financing, although this will initially focus on extremely strong project sponsors with government backing, such as the recent international bank financing component for Saudi Aramco's Jubail refinery project.
"Greater attention will be paid to the viability of projects, particularly those in real estate, and the nature of any assumed government support for project sponsors."
Citing MEED data, the report said the GCC project pipeline remains ambitious, with an estimated $2.8 trillion of ventures scheduled.
Credit recovery
Samba expected an improvement in credit growth through 2010 after a sharp decline in 2009 despite strong government intervention and support to banks.
It said tighter bank lending conditions, combined with corporate and individual deleveraging, caused annual domestic credit growth to plunge to low single digits for all but Qatar, where credit grew by 14.3 per cent.
In contrast, credit growth essentially stagnated in Saudi Arabia, with central bank data showing a contraction of 0.3 per cent in 2009. "The outlook for 2010 is more promising as the GCC governments spend increasing oil revenues and capital inflows improve – although the banks' access to international wholesale funding markets may remain tight until the second half of the year," Samba said.
"GCC banks start 2010 well capitalised and well provisioned providing a sound basis for growth. Interbank rates remain relatively low, although the UAE has seen a recent uptick due to concerns over debt restructuring, while rates in Qatar remain comparatively elevated given the authorities' decision to maintain higher policy rates in the face of previously soaring credit growth."
Inflation
As for inflation, which dived from around 11.1 per cent in 2008 to 2.5 per cent in 2009, Samba expected the rate to pick up slightly this year. While the GCC economies are projected to recover, aggregate demand growth will be modest, and credit growth comparatively restrained despite the accommodative monetary policy stance, it said.
In addition, after the sharp downturn in activity last year, capacity constraints have eased considerably in the region, particularly in the real estate sector.
"Rents account for a large share of GCC consumer price indices (CPI) and thus developments in real estate have a major bearing on inflationary developments. This was evident in Qatar and the UAE during 2009 when inflation dropped sharply (turning to deflation in Qatar) in line with the real estate downturn."
Public finance
Turning to public finances, Samba said it expected stronger oil prices in 2010 to prompt GCC nations to maintain their counter-crisis fiscal measures and at the same time widen their current account surplus. "The strength of GCC public finances will return as a major theme in 2010 as oil prices hold on to recent gains, raising fiscal and current account surpluses, and adding to the region's large external savings," it said.
"In 2010, GCC governments are expected to maintain the expansionary fiscal policy of recent years, which has provided the main driver of growth in the region. We expect government spending will rise by around 14 per cent this year to a record $354bn, bolstered by stronger oil prices."
In tandem with fiscal balances, the external balance of the GCC should improve as stronger oil and gas revenues, accompanied by a revival in petrochemical and non-hydrocarbon exports, boost the current account position, it said.
"Healthy current account surpluses will allow the GCC states to continue growing their substantial external assets which have provided a vital buffer during the global slowdown. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, the bulk of GCC states foreign assets are managed through SWFs," Samba said.
"Unfortunately, little information is publicly available on the assets under management by these SWFs. However, we believe that recovering global equity prices and replenishment from sustained current account surpluses resulted in an increase in value during 2009 which we expect will be repeated this year."
Quoting estimates by the Washington-based Institute of International Finance, Samba said the GCC's net foreign asset position improved by around $111bn in 2009 and will grow by $146bn this year to total $1.35trn. "Available data on GCC central bank reserves confirm this trend, with most members managing to build reserve levels in 2009 despite lower oil prices."
Stock markets
Samba's forecasts about the GCC stock markets showed they would be supported by the recovery and head for a steady improvement this year. It pointed to an economic upswing, stronger oil prices, sustained fiscal stimulus in the region and a recovery in global trade.
"From a macroeconomic perspective, the foundation is in place for a sustained improvement in GCC equity markets during 2010. Liquidity conditions are expected to improve, real estate sector is stabilising and possibly returning to growth in some cases.
"After relatively weak performances in 2009, corporate earnings should revive (consensus earnings growth for 2010 is around 23 per cent).Having been held back by higher provisioning in 2009, bank earnings should also recover," the report said.
According to the study, the prospect of bubbles forming in some emerging market equities does not apply to the GCC where the potential for catch up remains strong. The trailing PE ratio for the GCC stands at 13.2 per cent compared with around 18 per cent for emerging market equities, it said.
"GCC markets will remain sensitive to developments in global equities, which are likely to be volatile within a positive upward trend. However, while we anticipate gains for the year as a whole, a number of factors may limit the upside potential for some of the region's stock markets," it said.
Dollar peg is here to stay
The GCC's exchange rate pegs to the US dollar and is expected to remain unchanged over the next couple of years (with Kuwait retaining its peg to a dollar heavy basket of currencies).
Despite continued progress towards the stated goal of monetary union involving Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, announcements from GCC officials concede that this is still a long-term project. "In the meantime, efforts will continue to develop and build the necessary institutions and capacity to launch a viable single currency, starting with the central bank to be based in Riyadh," Samba said. "Given the retention of the dollar peg, GCC monetary policy will continue to be driven by the actions of the US Federal Reserve," it said.
"We thus anticipate a continuation of low policy rates in 2010. As in the US, we expect inflation to be muted in the GCC, and thus do not expect a return of the exchange rate pressures that emerged in 2007-2008. Current forward markets continue to reflect confidence in the dollar peg and are not pricing in any significant revaluation pressure within the next 12 months."
But Samba said it expected the peg to continue to be an area of debate as inflationary pressures mount at a time when governments will be reluctant to use fiscal policy to influence domestic activity.
"While we recognise the benefits of currency flexibility and an independent monetary policy, we hold the view that the dollar peg currently remains the best option. The dollar peg helps minimise exchange rate volatility and provides a credible and easily understood anchor for monetary policy," it said.
Emirates 24/7 2010
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