14/10/2010
U.S. analyst: Kurds tend to support al-Maliki, not Allawi
Beirut, Finally, loomed at the end of the tunnel in the hope of "an imminent end to the predicament of the Iraqi government."
Thus began "the Washington Institute for Near East Policy," a lengthy report what happened to the political conditions in Iraq, pointing out that the Kurdish forces tend to support the Prime Minister's outgoing Nuri al-Maliki.
The researcher said, "Michael Knights," in a report, "The Washington Institute," It is in early October, a move Prime Minister Nuri outgoing Nuri al-Maliki "a step closer in order to obtain a new mandate, when they gain the support of numerous groupings within the Shiite Iraqi National Alliance."
Maliki can now count on between 49 and 54 seats from the coalition, in addition to the 89 seats won by his list, "a coalition of state law" in elections last March. وهذا يوفر له ما يصل إلى 143 مقعداً من بين 163 مقعداً ضرورياً، للمصادقة على تعيين رئيس جديد للوزراء. This provides him up to 143 seats in the 163 seats necessary to ratify the appointment of a new prime minister.
In spite of this latest development may lead to the mobilization of opponents of al-Maliki to form an opposition bloc comprised of different elements, but the result is the "most likely", the opinion of Bates, is "the election of Maliki as the new government."
Is to penetrate, "may satisfy" the United States, but it involves the "fears", said a researcher at the "Institute of Washington," explaining that "the Iranians, apparently, are mediated in the settlement, which is affected by this," what he called the Knights, "movement of Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite", criticizing the other hand, the marginalization of the settlement of Sunnis in Iraq.
He described the "Institute of Washington," the alliance between the "coalition of the law," Maliki's and "the Iraqi National Alliance" of Sadr as a "marriage of convenience" Iran has "arranged".
Having guessed that Maliki is seeking to obtain the support of the "coalition of Kurdish blocs," drew the Knights in his report, "The Washington Institute," that "Maliki does not enjoy the confidence of the Kurds who witnessed and verified that its efforts to expand federal authority in the disputed areas as well as in oil policy."
However, it seems the Kurdish parties closer to an alliance with al-Maliki, rather than his main rival, Iyad Allawi, leader of the "Iraqi".
He attributed the researcher "preference for the Kurds, part of the owners, to the latter's consent to conduct a national census in the end, which was originally scheduled to take place on 24 October, but was postponed until the fifth of December due to pressure from the Arabs and the Turkmen minority , to meet the continuing demand by the Kurdistan Regional Government. "
As a concession to Maliki also on issues such as the development of the security forces of the Kurdistan Regional Government, funded by the federal government, supported by a U.S. military training.
Among other reasons put forward by the Knights to justify the preference of the owners of the Kurds is that Allawi alliances "include parties strongly anti-Kurd."
Knights and saw that there were "two possible scenarios" of things to come in Iraq, the first and so-called "vehicle-Maliki" will focus on between 190 to 200 seats filled by a coalition of state law and the Sadrists and the Kurdish lists.
And other parties will jump quickly to the vehicle-Maliki, so to speak, to try to find a place within the new government.
And may have been given the role of the symbolic elements of feedback from the Iraqi List, in such a government, the groups representing the vast majority of voters, Sunni Arabs and secular Shiites.
The second scenario, it may be called the "anyone but al-Maliki," a scenario "less likely".
And therein, "would put the Kurds and the Iraqi coalition, shared their concerns aside in order to prevent the re-election al-Maliki. And will join them those elements of the Iraqi National Alliance, which expressed opposition to the nomination of the Alliance for the owners, ie, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq.
He Knights that "can such a coalition to mobilize the majority of narrow consists of 164 seats. To compensate for the repulsion that would result from the Government of the Shiite minority in a country populated mostly by Shiites, is likely to give the prime minister to the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the current Vice-President, Adel Abdul-Mahdi. "
He said a researcher at the "Institute of Washington," that "the United States has a strong interest in ensuring that relationships with collaborators, which will allow the completion of the planned withdrawal of U.S. military forces, with the least possible risk may be destabilizing."
Accordingly, the "re-Maliki's appointment could create problems for Washington, because of Iran's role is clear in facilitating the formation of such a new government," said Bates, explaining that "pessimism is not due to hostility between Washington and Tehran, but because Iran's role in Iraq, and the rise of Maliki again to power will be seen when many sectors of Iraqi society, especially the Sunni communities, as the blessing of Iran and the evidence of the relative weakness of the United States. "
He said, "The Washington Institute," conducted by exploring the "International Republican Institute," last June, showed that 74 percent of the respondents in the Sunni provinces, "they feel that the formation of a government without legitimacy Stnqsa Allawi."
At the level of Iraq's relationship with the ocean nearby, the government headed by al-Maliki may find it difficult to get acceptance from Saudi Arabia, as well as "Iran may further steps desirable about the Kurdistan Regional Government, in its quest to establish a center procurement alternative to Dubai and find a source of oil products to partially compensate for the future impact of sanctions ", not to mention that" most of the fears of "is" to strengthen the role of the Sadrist movement in Iraq's Interior Ministry, which could cast a shadow over the security agreement between the United States and Iraq. "
In conclusion, Bates report in "The Washington Institute," warning that "the resultant of a combination of insurgent attacks coordinated carefully, and missteps by the security forces of the majority and the Shiite leadership in the Sunni areas, and the growing awareness the existence of a federal government backed by Iran in Baghdad lead to the outbreak of renewed violence in northern and central Iraq. "
(آكانيوز) ع ص (Rn) p r
من خليل الخليل : Khalil.harb@aknews.com Khalil al-Khalil: Khalil.harb @ aknews.com
U.S. analyst: Kurds tend to support al-Maliki, not Allawi
Beirut, Finally, loomed at the end of the tunnel in the hope of "an imminent end to the predicament of the Iraqi government."
Thus began "the Washington Institute for Near East Policy," a lengthy report what happened to the political conditions in Iraq, pointing out that the Kurdish forces tend to support the Prime Minister's outgoing Nuri al-Maliki.
The researcher said, "Michael Knights," in a report, "The Washington Institute," It is in early October, a move Prime Minister Nuri outgoing Nuri al-Maliki "a step closer in order to obtain a new mandate, when they gain the support of numerous groupings within the Shiite Iraqi National Alliance."
Maliki can now count on between 49 and 54 seats from the coalition, in addition to the 89 seats won by his list, "a coalition of state law" in elections last March. وهذا يوفر له ما يصل إلى 143 مقعداً من بين 163 مقعداً ضرورياً، للمصادقة على تعيين رئيس جديد للوزراء. This provides him up to 143 seats in the 163 seats necessary to ratify the appointment of a new prime minister.
In spite of this latest development may lead to the mobilization of opponents of al-Maliki to form an opposition bloc comprised of different elements, but the result is the "most likely", the opinion of Bates, is "the election of Maliki as the new government."
Is to penetrate, "may satisfy" the United States, but it involves the "fears", said a researcher at the "Institute of Washington," explaining that "the Iranians, apparently, are mediated in the settlement, which is affected by this," what he called the Knights, "movement of Muqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite", criticizing the other hand, the marginalization of the settlement of Sunnis in Iraq.
He described the "Institute of Washington," the alliance between the "coalition of the law," Maliki's and "the Iraqi National Alliance" of Sadr as a "marriage of convenience" Iran has "arranged".
Having guessed that Maliki is seeking to obtain the support of the "coalition of Kurdish blocs," drew the Knights in his report, "The Washington Institute," that "Maliki does not enjoy the confidence of the Kurds who witnessed and verified that its efforts to expand federal authority in the disputed areas as well as in oil policy."
However, it seems the Kurdish parties closer to an alliance with al-Maliki, rather than his main rival, Iyad Allawi, leader of the "Iraqi".
He attributed the researcher "preference for the Kurds, part of the owners, to the latter's consent to conduct a national census in the end, which was originally scheduled to take place on 24 October, but was postponed until the fifth of December due to pressure from the Arabs and the Turkmen minority , to meet the continuing demand by the Kurdistan Regional Government. "
As a concession to Maliki also on issues such as the development of the security forces of the Kurdistan Regional Government, funded by the federal government, supported by a U.S. military training.
Among other reasons put forward by the Knights to justify the preference of the owners of the Kurds is that Allawi alliances "include parties strongly anti-Kurd."
Knights and saw that there were "two possible scenarios" of things to come in Iraq, the first and so-called "vehicle-Maliki" will focus on between 190 to 200 seats filled by a coalition of state law and the Sadrists and the Kurdish lists.
And other parties will jump quickly to the vehicle-Maliki, so to speak, to try to find a place within the new government.
And may have been given the role of the symbolic elements of feedback from the Iraqi List, in such a government, the groups representing the vast majority of voters, Sunni Arabs and secular Shiites.
The second scenario, it may be called the "anyone but al-Maliki," a scenario "less likely".
And therein, "would put the Kurds and the Iraqi coalition, shared their concerns aside in order to prevent the re-election al-Maliki. And will join them those elements of the Iraqi National Alliance, which expressed opposition to the nomination of the Alliance for the owners, ie, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq.
He Knights that "can such a coalition to mobilize the majority of narrow consists of 164 seats. To compensate for the repulsion that would result from the Government of the Shiite minority in a country populated mostly by Shiites, is likely to give the prime minister to the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the current Vice-President, Adel Abdul-Mahdi. "
He said a researcher at the "Institute of Washington," that "the United States has a strong interest in ensuring that relationships with collaborators, which will allow the completion of the planned withdrawal of U.S. military forces, with the least possible risk may be destabilizing."
Accordingly, the "re-Maliki's appointment could create problems for Washington, because of Iran's role is clear in facilitating the formation of such a new government," said Bates, explaining that "pessimism is not due to hostility between Washington and Tehran, but because Iran's role in Iraq, and the rise of Maliki again to power will be seen when many sectors of Iraqi society, especially the Sunni communities, as the blessing of Iran and the evidence of the relative weakness of the United States. "
He said, "The Washington Institute," conducted by exploring the "International Republican Institute," last June, showed that 74 percent of the respondents in the Sunni provinces, "they feel that the formation of a government without legitimacy Stnqsa Allawi."
At the level of Iraq's relationship with the ocean nearby, the government headed by al-Maliki may find it difficult to get acceptance from Saudi Arabia, as well as "Iran may further steps desirable about the Kurdistan Regional Government, in its quest to establish a center procurement alternative to Dubai and find a source of oil products to partially compensate for the future impact of sanctions ", not to mention that" most of the fears of "is" to strengthen the role of the Sadrist movement in Iraq's Interior Ministry, which could cast a shadow over the security agreement between the United States and Iraq. "
In conclusion, Bates report in "The Washington Institute," warning that "the resultant of a combination of insurgent attacks coordinated carefully, and missteps by the security forces of the majority and the Shiite leadership in the Sunni areas, and the growing awareness the existence of a federal government backed by Iran in Baghdad lead to the outbreak of renewed violence in northern and central Iraq. "
(آكانيوز) ع ص (Rn) p r
من خليل الخليل : Khalil.harb@aknews.com Khalil al-Khalil: Khalil.harb @ aknews.com
