Monday, October 4, 2010
The resurgence of violence on a large scale leads the major political risk worthy of follow-up in Iraq
Baghdad Jim Loney: After nearly seven months after parliamentary elections in Iraq in March is still the country without a new government, but the alliance a major Shi'ite nominated Prime Minister of the outgoing Nuri al-Maliki to fill the post again, ending the stalemate continued for several months. This was the position the main sticking point in the complex negotiations to form a governing majority. The U.S. military ended its combat troops in Iraq officially since the month, which puts the burden of ensuring security on the Iraqi leaders.
The continuing divisions between the political factions led by the Shia and the Sunni-backed insurgents continue attacks are common risk environment for investors kept the non-oil sectors. These factors may affect also the major oil companies that won big deals to develop oil fields.
Although it is still in the country, 50 thousand U.S. troops to withdraw before the planned full end of 2011 there is a perception that Washington under President Barack Obama in fact the link with Iraq, which would exacerbate the sectarian differences. Iraq has suffered from the disorder in the absence of a new government since the congressional elections of March which did not produce a clear winner.
The payment of salaries of public sector workers and follow-up development projects as small as the army and police were continuing to fight the Sunni insurgency and Shiite militias to respond. And projects that Iraq has signed with major energy companies such as BP. BP and Lukoil, which can increase production of oil in seven years, more than four times the current production is moving forward slowly.
But the more the political impasse continues, the longer the time needed to calm the anger of poor public services such as uninterrupted electricity in the summer heat.
The increase is also a feeling that democracy is successful in Iraq and that Iraqi leaders are not able to provision, which increases the risk of public unrest and coup attempts and the intervention of neighbors.
Iraq is still isolated from global financial markets with the presence of only a few tens of companies listed on the Stock Exchange. The deal is weak in the Iraqi dinar exchange rate is determined in practice through the auctions, which raised the central bank.
The international bond issue in Iraq, a glimmer of hope looms on the horizon of the country.
The following is some of the most major risks facing Iraq after seven and a half years of U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein:
-Political bickering and power vacuum ..
Due to the lack of access a particular block a majority in the Iraqi parliament's 325seats, it is necessary for talks to form a coalition government.
After months of haggling settled the National Alliance, which includes a coalition of state law led al-Maliki and the Iraqi National Coalition associated with close relations with Iran on al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister.
While such resolution a breakthrough in the protracted crisis in months, al-Maliki still faces a tough battle in their quest for a second term. There was opposition within his coalition for his candidacy and said the Iraqi bloc, which consists of multiple communities that it will not participate in a government led by al-Maliki.
And got a list of Iraq's 91 seats in the elections. And is led by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite who enjoys broad support among the Sunnis, who they see as a strong man able to deal with Iran. And the coalition of state law to Maliki's 89 seats. . He received the National Coalition, the Iraqi Shiite bloc comprising a anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on 70 seats while the Kurdish alliance won 43 seats.
And the long delay in forming a government could undermine security in the list while the marginalization of the Iraqi Sunnis angry at a time when U.S. forces to withdraw.
What should follow-up ..
- Escalation of sectarian or political violence, as happened during the five months it took to form a government after parliamentary elections in 2005.
- Inability of the parliament could not function without a government for approving the law on investment, which would send a negative signal to companies interested in Iraq and worried about the legal risks and bureaucracy.
- A return to violence on a large scale ..
- Significantly reduced violence in Iraq than it was at the height of sectarian fighting in 2006 and 2007. Attributed to al-Maliki credited with the improved security situation in the country, but sending more U.S. troops and cooperation of the Sunni militias have played a major role as well.
Since March has made Iraqi forces backed by American firepower great successes in the face of local groups affiliated to al Qaeda and the killing of two leaders of al Qaeda in Iraq in April 18.
- But Sunni fighters who the government says they are cooperating with the outlawed Baath party, who was Saddam Hussein's party is still able to launch attacks.
In an attack on an Iraqi army base in the fifth of the September suicide bombers and gunmen killed 12 people and wounded more than 30 others. It was expected to climb militants intensified their attacks on Iraqi security forces after ending U.S. combat operations officially on 31 August.
In a sign of possible tensions between the central government and local authorities tried to members of the local council, backed by local police forces in Wasit province in the recent entry Alohdb oil field developed by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNN.. Me. C).
And local officials demanded access to the contracts signed by the company and the Oil Ministry in Baghdad, but this request has not been a response. The ministry condemned the attack as a violation of sovereign rights and said it would take legal action against members of the Council.
The violence erupts again in Iraq because of political differences or resentment or an attack on Sunni shrine as well as directing any Israeli strike on Iran. The pay of such an attack Shi'ite militias in revenge for U.S. troops remaining in Iraq.
Any considerable violence to raise prices in the world oil markets because Iraq has the third largest oil reserves in the world.
What should follow-up ..
- Attacks on oil facilities or workers in the oil.
- A successful strike against a key political player Kamaliki or Allawi.
- Indicators on the return of warlords fled after the prime minister's crackdown on sectarian violence in 2008.
- Increased penetration militants or insurgents to the Iraqi security forces.
The conflict between Arabs and Kurds ..
Simmering tensions between Arabs and minority Kurds, the semi-independence in northern Iraq nearly 20 years ago.
After exposure to the massacres of Kurds, Saddam gained influence unprecedented since 2003, hoping to restore the areas they consider historically Kurdish.
They complain that the Turkmen and Kurds taking advantage of their influence on the new self. Located in the heart of the province of Kirkuk in northern Iraq, which sits on huge oil reserves.
What should follow-up ..
Clashes between Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga forces.
- Any breakthrough on the oil.
And signed by the Kurdistan region believed to hold oil reserves estimated at 45 billion barrels of agreements with foreign companies described the Iraqi Oil Ministry as illegal.
Approval of a new oil law stalled for years because of the conflict between Arabs and Kurds.
This crash did not deter the major oil companies to sign contracts in the country as seen by potential investors in other sectors of the legislation as an indicator of stability in the country.
An authoritarian regime again ..
Are the democratic experiment in Iraq of great importance in the political leaders do not leave a provision typically only death or a coup. And Many Iraqis believe that their country needed a strong ruler.
And the inability to form a government undermines trust in democracy.
What should follow-up ..
- Any unusual movement of Iraqi forces, especially the closure of the Green Zone in Baghdad, where most government offices.
- Any attempt to amend the constitution to allow the leaders more power or stay in power.
reuters
