Mar 12 2010 Iraq's 2010 Parliamentary Elections
Background and Projections for the Second Council of Representatives Election
Background and Projections for the Second Council of Representatives Election
The Latest Results
His opponents, particularly former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, are charging fraud. (Allawi heads the Iraqi National Movement, a Sunni-Shiite coalition.) But there are fewer complaints than in 2009 provincial elections, which drew on far fewer voters. the Followers of radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr have polled better than expected. And even if Maliki's Dawa party maintains a lead, politicians behind his back are already meeting in the proverbial smoke-filled rooms (smoking is still a national pastime in Iraq) to decide whether to stick with Maliki or pick someone else.
That's not going to e the main challenge. Forming a functional coalition government will be. Those early signs are not encouraging, especially when coalitions formed before the election are themselves fraying, with members jumping from one party to another in expectations of being positioned closer to power, whenever that power comes into focus.
Can Iraq's semblance of democracy survive the politically fractured landscape and the uncertain succession?
Background: Iraq's Big Test
The March 7, 2010 general election is Iraq's next big democratic test. It will not only decide the shape of the next parliament and lead to the election of the next prime minister. It will also be a crucial factor in the American plan to withdraw all troops by September 2010.
The election failed its first test. The Iraqi constitution required it to be held by January 2010, at least 45 days before the end of the current parliament's term on March 15, 2010. But fearing that the law defining the election's parameters would also dictate its outcome (not an unreasonable fear) many political factions opposed that law and delayed the scheduled vote.
Among the disputes: Whether electoral lists should be closed (meaning that voters vote on a party as a whole while the party decides who in that party is to hold seats in parliament) or open (where voters directly decide the order in which particular representatives are elected from a party list). Sitting representatives wanted a closed list. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called for an open list. A Dec. 6, 2009 law ensured an open list. Sunnis were also resistant to the election law because it significantly disfavored their representation by giving Sunnis in exile (the majority of those displaced by the war) little say. That issue was only nominally resolved. Sunnis are still likely to get disproportionately less representation than others.
The new election law also expands the parliament, or Council of Representatives, to 325 seats (from 275), with eight seats reserved for minorities.
Here are the main parties vying for power in the 2010 parliamentary elections:
State of Law Coalition:
Led by Iraqi Prime Minister
Nur al-Maliki, the coalition is the most powerful political force in Iraq. Al-Maliki ensured its power by expanding its reach subtly but consistently through regional alliances with security forces, and through the provincial election of 2009.Iraq National Alliance:
Formed in August 2009 to be the main challenger to al-Maliki's power base, it is made up of al-Maliki's former Shiite allies, including the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq formerly known as SCIRI, members of Muqtada al Sadr's movement as well as the Iraqi National Congress of Ahmad Chalabi and the National Reform Movement of former prime minister Ibrahim al-Jafari.
Iraqi National Movement: Formed in October 2009 by former prime minister Iyad al-Allawi, a Shiite with Sunni backing, and Sunni leader Saleh al-Mutlaq, an ex-Baathist whose paychecks were signed by Saddam Hussein.
Kurdistan Alliance:
Iraqi National Movement: Formed in October 2009 by former prime minister Iyad al-Allawi, a Shiite with Sunni backing, and Sunni leader Saleh al-Mutlaq, an ex-Baathist whose paychecks were signed by Saddam Hussein.
Kurdistan Alliance:
Kurds in the north of the country have established a de-facto independent country in all but name. They still compete in national elections, and their inclusion in the government is crucial to a sense of Iraqi unity. The Kurdistan Alliance will represent Kurdish groups even though Kurds among themselves are not unified.
Unity Alliance of Iraq:
Unity Alliance of Iraq:
A coalition of moderate Shiites led by Interior Minister Jawad Bolani and Sunni leader Ahmad Abu Risha, whose brother was a leader of the Sons of Iraq movement before his assassination. In January 2010, yet another dispute arose over the government's handling of the coming election when a government commission barred 500 candidates from running.
The commission claimed the candidates were former Baathist supporters of Saddam Hussein. To the candidates, the accusation was merely another pretext for the government to sanitize of Sunnis the ranks of candidates, thus further favoring Shiites. The move was likely to undermine the legitimacy of the vote.
