March 26, 2010In Iraq, a Former U.S. Frontman Wins — But Will He Rule?
Once seen as an American puppet, Iyad Allawi is the new Comeback Kid of Iraqi politics. The results of the general election announced Friday show Allawi's secular Iraqiya block has won 91 seats in the 325 seat Iraqi parliament — well short of the majority, but two more than its nearest rival, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law slate.
It's far from certain that Allawi will get Maliki's job. State of Law and other blocks have already indicated they will contest the results, and demand recounts. Even if the results announced today hold up to scrutiny, there's a chance Maliki will be able to pull together a coalition to form the new government and retain the Prime Ministership. Meanwhile, the main Shi'ite bloc, the National Iraqi Alliance, won 70 seats; the main Kurdish alliance got 43. A simple majority of 163 seats is needed to govern.
But as Iraq braces for what could be weeks and weeks of political horse-trading, there's no doubt Allawi, 65, a physician, has momentum on his side. Such a comeback had seemed highly unlikely just three years ago, when Allawi was regarded as a political has-been.
Appointed Prime Minister of Iraq's first post-Saddam government in 2004, Allawi headed a corrupt, inept administration that set a poor tone for Iraq's fledgling democracy. As an American appointee, he lacked street cred. He projected himself as a democratic strongman — a contradiction in terms that convinced few of his countrymen. Although a Shi'ite, he alienated many of the majority sect by espousing a secular view of Iraq. Many Iraqis were suspicious of his ties to Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party, even though Allawi had left the party in 1975 and had survived an assassination attempt ordered by the dictator.
(See what Alawi was like in 2004.)
When elections were held for a transitional government at the end of 2005, Allawi was easily trounced by a coalition of Shi'ite religious parties. Nor did he fare much better in the first full general election, in 2006. He then went into something of a funk. Even though he was an elected member of parliament, he showed no interest in playing a constructive role in opposition. Indeed, he was rarely in Baghdad at all, spending most of his time in Jordan and other Arab states. When I asked him about this in 2007, he cited concerns about his security in Baghdad — but plenty of other Iraqi leaders, not to speak of ordinary citizens, were braving death-threats.
But as the religious Shi'ite parties began to splinter, Allawi's political fortunes began to turn around. It helped, too, that his sucessors as prime minister — Ibrahim Jaafari and Maliki — were unable to deliver clean and efficient government. Allawi's party made a strong showing in last year's provincial elections, and that allowed him to unite a strong coalition of secular and Sunni parties under the Iraqi banner.
His challenge now is to persuade Shi'ite and Kurdish parties that he will better serve their interests than Maliki. If history is any judge, he'll have an easier time with the Kurds, who lean toward secularism, than the Shi'ites.
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