Date: 17 Mar 2010
Economic Challenges in Post-Conflict Iraq
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
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By Anthony H. Cordesman, Adam Mausner and Elena Derby
Economics are as important to Iraq's stability and political accommodation as security and governance, and they are equally critical to creating a successful strategic partnership between Iraq and the United States. It is far from easy, however, to analyze many of the key factors and trends involved. Iraqi data are weak and sometimes absent.
U.S. and Coalition forces generally failed to look in detail at many of Iraq's most serious economic problems, or they issued heavily politicized reports designed to show that Iraqi "reconstruction" had been far more successful than it really was.
It is clear, however, that any analysis of a U.S. and Iraqi strategic partnership must examine these issues, which fall into four major categories:
- Iraq's near-term and mid-term dependence on its petroleum sector for much of its economic growth and most of its government revenue and self-financed development and security efforts.
- The critical problems in other sectors of the Iraqi economy, including industry and agriculture, and in many areas of government services like health and education.
- The impact of outside aid, where the Special Inspector General for Iraqi Reconstruction (SIGIR) and other reporting indicates that U.S. and other international aid efforts have fallen far short of their goals and sometimes done more harm than good.
- Iraq's ability to develop levels of security that will allow a normal economy to develop, which will reassure investors that foreign and domestic investment is safe, and that will ensure that investments in infrastructure and development are not attacked. © The Center for Strategic & International Studies
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