February 20, 2010Speculation on the pending revaluation.
Ok, here is a line of speculation that I have had in the past and have now come back full circle to.
Two years ago we had all kinds of news that Maliki the Prime Minister of Iraq was planning to do a "government shake up" and replace many members of the Iraqi government.
At that time many (myself included) were speculating that this was it and that as soon this "government shake up" happened that the revaluation would soon occur. (fail) lol!
The primary reason I at that time thought this may be true was the fact that by then we all well knew that many of the elected officials in the Iraqi government were very corrupt and only cared about money and not the nation of Iraq or it's people.
Because of this I have always thought that when they revalued the Iraqi currency there was going to be massive amount resignations within the Iraqi government.
I speculated that the moment all of these politicians were suddenly "rich" they would all head for the nearest exit with their new found wealth to live their lives in ease and leaving the government of Iraq and it's people "high and dry".
There are no laws that require elected officials to stay in office and being elected they may resign at any time with little to no notice at all.
I have always thought that this type of event (mass resignations) cause by the revaluation would in effect destabilize the whole Iraqi government and cause massive problems within Iraq even to the point of creating a dangerous and unstable condition within Iraq and the region.
Well the only solution that would prevent this potentially disastrous turn of events would be to wait until the elected officials in question terms are all up and they are no longer in active session to do the revaluation.
But what about the new incoming candidates? Would not some of them also resign the moment the revaluation occurred?
Yes...that could also be a danger.
What if they waited until AFTER the elections?
Well we could see the same thing happen...there would be a chance that after the revaluation was announced many of the newly elected officials would hand in resignation letters and again Iraqi would be without proper staffing of the government and be in a fresh political turmoil.
But IF the revaluation happened before the elections anyone who was still committed to being a member of the Iraqi Government would still be in the race and remain on the ballot.
So what's a smart director of a Central Bank to do?
Ok...the only solution to this problem would be to do the revaluation BEFORE the new elected officials are in office or better yet before they are even elected.
This particular timing of the "event" would also serve to separate those who where only running for office for financial gain from those who are running for office with true political goals of change and stability for all of the nation of Iraq.
A separating of "the wheat from the chaff" if you will.
Now...that time frame I have just described is right now as the former government of Iraq is for the most part fully adjourned and the election of new officials is slated for March 7th.
So we are in the perfect time frame for the CBI to announce the revaluation with minimal adverse political effect.
But I do not think they would do it too close to the elections because this "novel re denomination/revaluation event" will have a good but disruptive effect upon the people and nation of Iraq and to do this too close to the date of March 7th could cause poor voter turn out due to the distractions (good distractions) caused by this "event.
The elections are on March 7th and to prevent possible disruption I cannot see them doing the revaluation within 7 days of March 7th.
So it looks like we may well be in the perfect time frame to pull this event off in such a way as to revitalize the economy of the nation of Iraq with little to no adverse political effect.
I speculate....that from now to March 1st. is the perfect time for a revaluation.
Best of luck to all.
Phoenix
