Thursday, December 31, 2009

Gulf petro-powers ~ agreed to launch a single currency modelled on the euro, hoping to blaze a trail towards a pan-Arab monetary union ...

*“The euro was created for political reasons after the fall of the Berlin Wall to lock Germany irrevocably into Europe. It was not done for economic reasons”

watch ~ video

2009- janury 2010

Gulf petro-powers to launch currency in latest threat to dollar hegemony

The Arab states of the Gulf region have agreed to launch a single currency modelled on the euro, hoping to blaze a trail towards a pan-Arab monetary union swelling to the ancient borders of the Ummayad Caliphate

“The Gulf monetary union pact has come into effect,” said Kuwait’s finance minister, Mustafa al-Shamali, speaking at a Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) summit in Kuwait.

The move will give the hyper-rich club of oil exporters a petro-currency of their own, greatly increasing their influence in the global exchange and capital markets and potentially displacing the US dollar as the pricing currency for oil contracts. Between them they amount to regional superpower with a GDP of $1.2 trillion (£739bn), some 40pc of the world’s proven oil reserves, and financial clout equal to that of China.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar are to launch the first phase next year, creating a Gulf Monetary Council that will evolve quickly into a full-fledged central bank.

The Emirates are staying out for now – irked that the bank will be located in Riyadh at the insistence of Saudi King Abdullah rather than in Abu Dhabi. They are expected join later, along with Oman.

The Gulf states remain divided over the wisdom of anchoring their economies to the US dollar. The Gulf currency – dubbed “Gulfo” – is likely to track a global exchange basket and may ultimately float as a regional reserve currency in its own right. “The US dollar has failed. We need to delink,” said Nahed Taher, chief executive of Bahrain’s Gulf One Investment Bank.

The project is inspired by Europe’s monetary union, seen as a huge success in the Arab world. But there are concerns that the region is trying to run before it can walk.

Europe took 40 years to reach the point where it felt ready to launch a currency. It began with the creation of the Iron & Steel Community in the 1950s, moving by steps towards a single market enforced by powerful Commission and European Court. The EMU timetable was fixed at the Masstricht in 1991 but it took another 11 for euro notes and coins to reach the streets.

Khalid Bin Ahmad Al Kalifa, Bahrain’s foreign minister, told the FIKR Arab Thought summit in Kuwait that the project would not work unless the Gulf countries first break down basic barriers to trade and capital flows.

At the moment, trucks sit paralysed at border posts for days awaiting entry clearance. Labour mobility between states is almost zero.

“The single currency should come last. We need to coordinate our economic policies and build up common infrastructure as a first step,” he said.

Mohammed El-Enein, chair of the energy and industry committee in Egypt’s parliament, said Europe’s example could help the Arab world achieve its half-century dream of a unified currency, but the task requires discipline. “We need exactly the same institutions as the EU has created. We need a commission, a court, and a bank,” he said.

The last currency to trade in souks from Marakesh, to Baghdad and Mecca, was the Ottomon Piaster, known as the “kurush”. It suffered chronic inflation as the silver coinage was debased.

There is a logic to an Arab currency. The region speaks one language, has the unifying creed of “Umma Wahida” or One Nation from the Koran, and has not torn itself apart in savage wars – ever – in quite the way that Europe has in living memory.

Yet hurdles are formidable even for the tight-knit group of Gulf states. While the eurozone is a club of rough equals – with Germany, France, Italy, and Spain each holding two votes on the ECB council – the Gulf currency will be dominated by Saudi Arabia. The risk is that other countries will feel like satellites. Monetary policy will inevitably be set for Riyadh’s needs.

Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paraibas, said the Gulf states may have romanticised Europe’s achievement and need to move with great care to avoid making the same errors.

“The Greek crisis has exposed the weak foundations on which the euro is built. The gap in competitiveness between core Europe and the periphery has grown wider and wider. The obvious mistake was to launch EMU without a central fiscal authority and political union, as the Bundesbank warned in the 1990s,” he said.

“The euro was created for political reasons after the fall of the Berlin Wall to lock Germany irrevocably into Europe. It was not done for economic reasons,” he said.

Ben Simpfendorfer, Asia economist for RBS and an expert on the Middle East, told the FIKR conference that the rise of China had paradoxically disrupted the case for pan-Arab economic integration.

There was a natural fit ten years ago between rich oil state and low-wage manufacturers in Egypt and Syria, but cheap exports from China have forced poorer Arab states to retreat behind barriers to shelter their industries. “The rationale for a single currency has become weaker,” he said.

The GCC also agreed to create a joint military strike force – akin to the EU’s rapid reaction force – to tackle threats such as the incursion of Yemeni Shiite rebels into Saudi territory earlier this year.

This is a major breakthrough after years of deadlock on defence cooperation.

The Sunni Gulf states are deeply concerned about the great power ambitions of Shiite Iran and its quest for nuclear weapons, to the point where the theme of a possible war between Iran and a Saudi-led constellation of states has crept into the media debate.

They nevertheless repeated on Tuesday that “any military action against Iran” by Western powers would be unacceptable.

link



OVERNIGHT GLOBAL REALIGNMENTS? PAST EVENTS LEADING UP TO THIS MOMENT - PART 1 ...

Bumped ~ Original post by kel way back ~ 2008

Overnight Global Realignment Of Currencies? Not Quite. It's Taken Years Of Preparation. Are We There Yet? Maybe So....

It looks like we might see an unexpected realignment of multiple currencies around the world. The middle east (Iraq) seems to be the "lynchpin". While researching and collecting articles over the past few years, all information is coming together slowly but surely. The possibility of regional currencies realigning with one another is very great. This a Major undertaking ... imo, kel...

If you'll remember, it hasn’t happened overnight. The foundation for the concept/plan began years ago in Monterrey, Mexico, March 2002.

The first UN-sponsored summit-level meeting to address key financial and related issues pertaining to global development and international economic cooperation was held in Monterrey, Mexico, in March 2002. The scope of participation was unprecedented, with 50 heads of state and over 200 ministers of finance, foreign affairs, development and trade. They were joined by the heads of the UN, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization and by prominent business and civil society leaders. Also unprecedented was joint sponsorship by the UN, World Bank, IMF and WTO.

UNCTAD proposes new multilateral regime to stave off currency speculation. One of the most innovative ideas to reform the global monetary and financial architecture discussed during the **link
International Follow-up Conference on Financing for Development in Doha was a new multilateral regime to stave off currency speculation and provide the policy space for all countries to pursue expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to protect jobs and their domestic economy (counter-cyclical measures) in the face of a recession or financial crisis. This is one of the key proposals that a Task Force set up by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development *link (UNCTAD) will present in mid-February 2009.

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/03/two-most-important-meetings-coming-up.html

COMING UP: THIS IS, IMO, ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT MEETINGS: VOTE ON SDRs AUGUST 7TH
(PASSED)

IMF SDR ALLOCATIONS AUGUST 28TH AND SEPTEMBER 9TH


IMF Executive Board Backs US$250 Billion SDR Allocation to Boost Global Liquidity

Press Release No. 09/264 July 20, 2009

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backed an allocation **link
Drawing Rights (SDRs) equivalent to US$250 billion to provide liquidity to the global economic system by supplementing the Fund’s 186 member countries’ foreign exchange reserves.

The equivalent of nearly US$100 billion of the new allocation will go to emerging markets and developing countries, of which low-income countries will receive over US$18 billion. The
proposal will now be submitted to the IMF’s Board of Governors for final approval.

“The SDR allocation is a key part of the Fund’s response to the global crisis, offering significant support to its members in these difficult times,” IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.The SDR allocation was requested as part of a **link
US$1.1 trillion plan agreed at the .G-20 summit in London in April and endorsed by the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) to tackle the global financial and economic crisis by restoring credit, growth and jobs in the world economy.

If approved by the Board of Governors with an 85 percent majority of the total voting power in a vote scheduled to close on August 7, the SDR allocation will be in effect on August 28."

The allocation is a prime example of a cooperative monetary response to the global financial crisis," the Managing Director

underscored.The
**link
SDR allocation will be made to IMF members that are participants in the Special Drawing Rights Department (currently all members) in proportion to their existing quotas in the Fund, which are based broadly on their relative size in the global economy.

The operation will increase each country’s allocation of SDRs by approximately 74 percent of its quota, and Fund members’ total allocation to an amount equivalent to about $283 billion, from about $33 billion (SDR 21.4 billion).SDRs allocated to members will count toward their reserve assets, acting as a low cost liquidity buffer for low-income countries and emerging markets and reducing the need for excessive self-insurance.


Some members may choose to sell part or all of their allocation to other members in exchange for hard currency--for example, to meet balance of payments needs--while other members may choose to buy more SDRs as a means of reallocating their reserves. In supporting the allocation proposal, the Executive Board stressed that it should not weaken the pursuit of prudent macroeconomic policies, and should not substitute for a Fund-supported program or postpone needed policy adjustments.

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/08/imf-sdr-allocations-august-7th-august.html

~snip from older article …

Approval of an SDR allocation requires an 85 per cent majority vote of the IMF membership. The US Treasury secretary can vote for an SDR allocation of up to $250bn (€199bn, £178bn) – or larger, if he consults with key members of Congress 90 days before he casts his vote. Thus, the actual allocation could occur by mid-summer, sooner than other crisis-mitigation measures would take effect

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/08/how-imf-fund-can-help-save-world.html

A sudden worldwide currency revaluation is imminent

~snip from “call me Contrarian”


http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/07/call-me-contrarian.html

This imbalance, once corrected, will make central bank fiat currencies sustainable once again.

Do I think this magnitude of a reset could happen overnight? Yes, I do. Why? Because that is the way you get the most "bang for your buck". Surprise is the order of the day!

Some of the entities that you think most deserve to be wiped out will turn out to be the BIGGEST beneficiaries of this "overnight" transfer of wealth. And others who thought they were fully hedged will be wiped out. These are the kinds of surprises I expect. I am truly in the mode of "expecting the unexpected" with a timeline shorter than a normal TV season.


Call me contrarian. But please don't call me a "doomer". I do not view this as doom. I realize the difference between the monetary system and the real economy. I recognize the difference between real capital and illusory wealth.

The current monetary system is like a virtual grid, an electronic parasite overlaid on the real world. It can completely vanish and leave the real world totally intact. I look forward to a new beginning for the entire system. A healthy start like we have not seen in generations.

This reset is not something I am pushing for. It is not something I even wanted a mere year and a half ago. Instead, it is what I see as inevitable.

Yes, many will be hurt and I will mourn their losses as some of my own loved ones are not well prepared. But what can I do more than I am already doing? We cannot fight the inevitable.

We can only prepare. Some have said that I am only viewing the forest and not the trees. That I do not care for the individual trees that will be engulfed by the forest fire. I do care, and this is why I blog.

There is NO SOLUTION that will save everyone's dollars. There are simply too many of them.

There is NO SOCIALIST PARADISE. There is only reality and, living in it as we do, we must each walk our own Trail into the future.

Perhaps I am wrong and this fateful day will come later than I expect. I hope I am wrong. More people will make it to the safe harbor in the meantime. But do I venture out into the open sea while I wait?

No, I remain moored to my anchor. So call me contrarian, but follow the consensus voices out into the choppy waters at your own peril. Supplemental reading: What did the top central bankers of the world know and when?


This is an excellent forensic examination of our monetary leaders. One has to wonder, if this much was known at the top level of central banking, shared, published and ignored by those with the most power, what preparations were made by the central bankers that did not ignore the warnings?

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/08/sudden-worldwide-currency-rrvaluation.html

A sudden worldwide currency revaluation is imminent


Long article @ blog

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/08/sudden-worldwide-currency-rrvaluation.html

And we have


UNITED NATIONS: SEPTEMBER 15TH, 23-24-2009

64th Session Agenda The sixty-fourth session will convene at United Nations Headquarters on Tuesday, 15 September 2009, at 3 p.m. The general debate will be held from 23 to 30 September 2009

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/08/united-nations-september-15th-23-24.html

and...

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania will host the G-20 Summit September 24-25, 2009.

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/08/g-20-summit-september-24-25-2009.html

And we have …

Fasten Your Seatbelts


Date: Sun, 2 Aug 2009 Greetings and Salutations; From Poof; Never discount anything Poof says.

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/08/fasten-your-seatbelts.html

Tuesday, July 7, 2009


A currency realignment has to take place to correct global imbalances

"A currency realignment has to take place to correct global imbalances," Tendulkar said. "The Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen have to appreciate and the U.S. currency has to go down."Dollar's Role Under Debate In Run Up To G8 SummitAIX EN PROVENCE, France (Dow Jone)--France, Russia and India questioned the role of the dollar as the world's reserve currency during the weekend, indicating its status is likely to be a strong talking point in this week's Group of Eight leading nations' summit in Italy.

At a conference here this weekend French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde called for better foreign exchange policy co-ordination, hinting that the dollar's role as a reserve currency may need to be discussed in the medium term. Her remarks were echoed by European Central Bank board member Christian Noyer Sunday who said: "We must ensure a bigger stability between currencies in the coming months.""We must avoid...the piling up of currency reserves," and find more efficient ways of financing global trade, he added.

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/07/currency-realignment-has-to-take-place.html

Friday, June 19, 2009

Gulf dinar 'to replace four local currencies

Four Gulf oil producers planning monetary union are expected to name a new common currency the Gulf dinar, a Saudi academic said yesterday.And the new currency will run in tandem with national coins and notes now in circulation to ease the transition, he said.

Wadei Ahmed Kably, economics professor at the King Abdul Aziz University in the Saudi Red Sea Port of Jeddah, said he expected the Gulf dinar to be issued by the Gulf Central Bank and set at SR10, nearly $2.66.

"Based on the European Union experience, I expect the new currency to be circulated along with the existing national currencies in the Gulf Cooperation Council," he told the Saudi Arabic language daily Al Watan."Both currencies will remain in circulation by banks and individuals for one or two years so the public get used to the new currency.

National currencies could then be gradually withdrawn within five years so the public will not feel any difference," he told the paper.Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are pushing ahead with the monetary union plans following the withdrawal of the UAE and Oman.

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/06/gulf-dinar-to-replace-currencies.html

Thursday, March 19, 2009


Global Currency (Super Currency)

16 Mar 2009

IMF poised to print billions of dollars in 'global quantitative easing' The International Monetary Fund is poised to embark on what analysts have described as "global quantitative easing" by printing billions of dollars worth of a global "super-currency" in an unprecedented new effort to address the economic crisis. Alistair Darling and senior figures in the US Treasury have been encouraging

the Fund to issue hundreds of billions of dollars worth of so-called Special Drawing Rights in the coming months as part of its campaign to prevent the recession from turning into a global depression. Should the move, which is up for discussion by the summit of G20 finance ministers this weekend, be adopted, it will represent a global equivalent of the Bank of England's plan to pump extra cash into the UK economy.


However, economists warned that the scheme could cause a major swell of inflation around the world as the newly-created money filters through the system.The idea has been suggested by a number of key figures, including billionaire investor George Soros and US Treasury adviser Ted Truman. Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the IMF, said: "The principle behind it is that everyone would get bonus dollars and instead of the Federal Reserve having to print them, everyone gets them. "The objective is to create a windfall of cash.However if everybody goes out and spends the money it could be very inflationary.

Great ~Video
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid3469232001/bctid16618136001

http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/03/global-currency-super-currency.html

April 8, 2009


FED SECURES FOREIGN CURRENCIES

WASHINGTON: The US Federal Reserve Monday secured backup foreign currency for financial institutions in the worsening global downturn, while Japan moved to pump at least 100 billion dollars into its stalling economy.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told lawmakers that Russia would spend three trillion rubles (90 billion dollars) in anti-crisis measures to cope with a "very difficult" 2009. The Federal Reserve Monday announced a currency swap deal with the central banks of Britain, Japan and Switzerland as well as the European Central Bank (ECB) aimed at helping US financial institutions.

The currencies offered by the four central banks to the Fed under the tie-up through October 2009 are equivalent to nearly 290 billion dollars, the Fed said in a statement. The US central bank said it had entered into swap arrangements with the Bank of England, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank that "would enable the provision of foreign currency liquidity by the Federal Reserve to US financial institutions." "

Should the need arise, euro, yen, sterling and Swiss francs would be provided to the Federal Reserve via these additional swap agreements with the relevant central banks," the statement said.

The move came as central banks try to ease credit flows and restore lending in a bid to bolster the financial system critical to recovery of the world economy reeling from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. "The only question is: why now?" Bank of America economist Gilles Moec said. "It would have made more sense a few months ago when the tension on markets was extreme, possibly triggering a demand for alternatives to the dollar on the US market," Moec said.

"This is probably a precautionary move," he added.With Japan's economy in its worst slump since World War II, Prime Minister Taro Aso ordered fresh stimulus spending of at least 100 billion dollars. It would be Japan's biggest ever supplementary budget, highlighting mounting fears in Tokyo about the economy, which has been battered by a plunge in worldwide demand for Japanese cars and high-tech goods.

"Japan's economic growth rate is expected to fall the most among advanced nations," Aso told reporters.The world's second-largest economy contracted at a startling annualized pace of 12.1 percent in the 2008 fourth quarter. Aso said world leaders, who held a Group of 20 crisis summit in London Thursday, were determined to cooperate by boosting public spending. Aso, facing key elections this year, instructed his finance minister to draw up an extra budget of at least 2.0 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for the 2009 financial year starting this month.

That would make the package worth at least 10 trillion yen (100 billion dollars). The package comes on top of stimulus measures approved by parliament since October that were worth a combined 75 trillion yen, of which actual fiscal spending was about 12 trillion yen.

And in Hong Kong, the city's chief executive Donald Tsang said he could adopt further economic stimulus measures later this year to fight the financial downturn. Tsang said in an interview with the Financial Times that the city had 400 billion HK dollars (51.6 billion US dollars) in the bank "so I'm in a good position to spend more if I want to ... If necessary we will do something in the middle of the year.

The International Monetary Fund wants governments to put 2.0 percent of GDP into stimulus spending this year and has suggested more stimulus may be needed in 2010. Russia, which has seen its windfall from high oil prices tumble, faces a tough year as the global economic crisis bites, Putin said. "The year 2009 will be very difficult for us," Putin said as he presented his government's anti-crisis plans before the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's parliament. Putin said the government would spend three trillion rubles (90 billion dollars) this year. Last year Russia announced spending measure totaling almost 200 billion dollars to fight the crisis. –

Roundabout Bailout: Fed To Pump Foreign Currency Into U.S. Banks

April 10, 2009


The Fed is already printing trillions of U.S. dollars and pumping them into the global economy in an effort to stave off a financial collapse. Now it plans to start injecting foreign currency, too, according to minutes recently released from its March meeting.

How the hell can the U.S. Fed do that? Glad you asked.

The Federal Reserve engages in so-called swaps with foreign countries, which we
first reported here. It uses these swaps to pump hundreds of billions of dollars into foreign central banks while taking foreign currency in exchange.

The foreign central banks pass their new U.S. dollars to their foreign financial institutions, while the Fed has kept the foreign currency on its balance sheet and not injected it into the money supply.

Now, however, the Fed will be able to take the foreign currency it acquires in these swaps, and rather than hold it on its balance sheet, pass it on to U.S. banks, according to minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's March meeting. These U.S. banks can then use that foreign currency to cover their foreign debts.

The Fed governors said, according to the meeting notes, that the measure was only precautionary: "There was no evidence that these institutions were encountering difficulty in meeting foreign currency obligations at this time, but these facilities would be available should pressures develop in the future."

The expanded effort is part of a Fed project that has been injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into foreign central banks over the last several months.

The committee notes say that the new program will "augment the existing network of central bank liquidity swap lines."

The Fed also announced in its minutes that it was approving "additional temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) with the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank." Extending additional swaps to these central banks raises the question of whether those banks are facing difficulties repaying previous swaps. The European and Japanese economies have been collapsing at a faster rate than the United States' has.

"It is basically either an extension or increase of the existing lines, and raises suspicion that massive losses have been incurred in the previous round of supposedly 'temporary' swaps, as the return to dollar-supply-normalcy that these geniuses pretended to expect would have happened by now, did not," ventures economist James Galbraith.

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), after reading the minutes, describes the Fed plan as "a massive transfer of wealth from the American people to who knows where," calling it a "round-about bailout."

Beyond that, he notes, it's hard to know what to make of the Fed action because of the obscurity of the institution. "The Fed is out of control. If the president tried to do this, Republicans would be calling for his impeachment. But because it's done by the man behind the curtain they call the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, it's supposedly okay," he says, arguing that the founding fathers never intended one man to have so much unchecked power. The obscurity has
led economists to wonder about the Fed's true motives.

The expansion of Fed power comes amid increasing calls for transparency into the workings of the organization. If the Fed does send foreign currency to U.S. banks, it will be under no requirement to disclose which banks or how much.

On Wednesday, Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) called for the GAO to have more authority to investigate the Fed. Grayson says Frank has told him on numerous occasions that Congress needs a better idea of what it is that the Fed is doing.

On Wednesday night, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) called on the Fed to post its financial transactions online during a conversation with the Daily Show's John Stewart. She
plans to address "Fed authority" when Congress returns.

From the minutes:

The Committee also took up a proposal to augment the existing network of central bank liquidity swap lines by adding several temporary swap lines that could provide foreign currency liquidity to U.S. institutions, analogous to the arrangements that currently provide U.S. dollar liquidity abroad.

There was no evidence that these institutions were encountering difficulty in meeting foreign currency obligations at this time, but these facilities would be available should pressures develop in the future. The Committee unanimously approved the following resolution:

"The Federal Open Market Committee authorizes the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to enter into additional temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (swap lines) with the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank to support the provision of liquidity in British pounds, euros, Japanese yen, and Swiss francs.

The swap arrangements with each foreign central bank shall be subject to the following limits: an aggregate amount of up to £30 billion with the Bank of England; an aggregate amount of up to €80 billion with the ECB; an aggregate amount of up to ¥10 trillion with the Bank of Japan; and an aggregate amount of up to SwF 40 billion with the Swiss National Bank. These arrangements shall terminate no later than October 30, 2009, unless extended by mutual agreement of the Committee and the respective foreign central banks.

The Committee also authorizes the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to provide the foreign currencies obtained under the arrangements to U.S. financial institutions by means of swap transactions to assist such institutions in meeting short-term liquidity needs in their foreign operations. Requests for drawings on the central bank swap lines and distribution of the foreign currency proceeds to U.S. financial institutions shall be initiated by the appropriate Reserve Bank and approved by the Foreign Currency Subcommittee."

And more on that …

U.S. Injecting Billions Into Foreign Central Banks

March 17, 2009 05:07 AM

For more than a year, the U.S. Federal Reserve System has been increasingly acting as the world's central bank, injecting hundreds of billions of dollars into foreign government treasuries in an effort to increase liquidity in those countries.The foreign central banks have used the U.S. currency to bail out financial institutions within their borders. The Fed program links its balance sheet directly to the fates of foreign central banks at a time when they're on the ropes.

And what we anticipate….

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Iraqi Central Bank Monetary Policy - Verge of a New Policy

Iraqi Central Bank monetary policy in the country on the verge of a new developments

BAGHDAD (Iba) July 2, 2009/ Central Bank / developments / ..

adviser said that the Iraqi Central Bank monetary policy in the country on the verge of a new developments are in favor of the national economy after the withdrawal of foreign military from Iraqi cities.

The appearance of Mohammed Saleh told the independent press (Iba) said Thursday that the official announcement of the withdrawal is a recognition of the improved security, a fact which serves the starting point of monetary policy and contribute to the enhancement of the value of the dinar against the dollar and reflected positively on the whole economic process.

The benefit of the bank's intention to develop high-technology programs during the current year and the activation of international conventions and recommendations of the Bank and Iraqi banks.Rada criticism by a number of those involved in economic affairs of monetary policy.


He stressed the need for the establishment of banks within the professional systems and mechanisms of action are far from considerations of scale and commensurate with the interests of Albullad.Stressing that economic integration, including monetary, issue of great importance to raising the living standards of international competition and citizen-based preferences.

The benefit of the Bank emphasizes the preparation of studies and research upon which these policies in the design and the professional independence and transparency, as in the case of international banks.Adding that all those keen to develop the work of banks and to preserve the gains achieved during the previous period.


The Saleh said in a press statement that concerned with the affairs of the country's monetary policy following the uncertainty in understanding the signals the monetary policy of the bank, which continued to face the cases of hyper-inflation and the deterioration of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate and through the manifestations of the imbalance of economic and social experience of the difficult country for more than three decades.( end) / 20 /


http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009_07_01_archive.html

Obama to Abandon the Dollar?


http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/08/obama-to-abandon-dollar.

NOV. 4, 2009

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPMENT

http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N09/593/65/PDF/N0959365.pdf?OpenElement

******************************
DECEMBER 9, 2009 UPDATE AND WHERE ARE WE NOW? FOLLOW THE LINK

POSTONED ~ NOV. 23-24TH **UNITED NATIONS "THE MONTERREY CONSENSUS AND DOHA DECLARATION"

MARCH 23 -24- 2010 - UNITED NATIONS "THE MONTERREY CONSENSUS AND DOHA DECLARATION"

Central Bank of Iraq's Governor, Sinan Shabibi and the United Nations - UN Meeting ...March 23-24-2010

REVALUATION SOONER THAN EXPECTED?

LINKS - POSSIBLE REGIONAL ADJUSTMENT TO CURRENCIES 2010

*** Forex Trading Recommendations for 2010



December 31, 2009

Forex Trading Recommendations for 2010

In 2008, a substantial deterioration of the global economy led to a considerable appreciation of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies. In general, periods of economic uncertainty prompt an increase in investor’s demand for less-risky assets and the US dollar was supported by its safe-haven status and strong demand for US Treasuries.
However, in 2009, a sudden change in investor’s sentiment towards more risk taking, led to a massive rally in stocks but also to considerable losses in the dollar exchange rate. After all, the US Federal Reserve said it would keep rates exceptionally low for quite some time and investors looked elsewhere for higher yielding assets. That said, I think 2010 will not be an extension of 2009. First, the Federal Reserve is no longer implementing quantitative easing. Second, the resumption of economic growth in the United States is likely to have a positive impact on the overnight Fed Funds rate. Third, exchange rate volatility is way below its long term average and I expect it to revert back to mean in 2010. In fact, just a few weeks ago, a possible credit default by the city state of Dubai, remind us that financial markets remain fragile. Usually, when volatility increases, the dollar receives a boost as investors seek refuge in US treasuries. So I recommend going long USDJPY and short EURUSD. Please make an intelligent use of leverage and always use stops to protect you account from severe losses.

Since the end of the Bretton Woods era, the EURUSD (DEM rates were used before 1998) exchange rate has exhibited a long term rhythm of close to a decade up and 4 years down. If the rhythm holds, then the EURUSD has been in a bear market since topping in July of 2008. So, it is important to keep in mind how important a USD turn may have occurred at 1.6000. This is bearish in that it indicates distribution followed by consolidation. Moreover, looking at a EURUSD monthly chart, one way to estimate the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders top is to extend a line parallel to the neckline from the top of the left shoulder. Of course, it is not known that a head and shoulders has unfolded until the neckline breaks. However, utilizing this ‘trick’ of extending a parallel line from the top of the left shoulder often gives early warning that the pattern in question is indeed a head and shoulders. Such is the case here. In 2010, the neckline crosses 1.2635-1.2866. A break of the neckline would expose 10760, 10215 and 9600.

Heading into the end of the year, the dollar has marked a meaningful reversal against key counterparts (the euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar). However, until the primary fundamental driver for the dollar - that depressed the currency to the 16-month lows that it was scrapping through the end of November – definitively reverses course; I will continue to treat long positions on the reserve currency as a counter-trend trade. That means I will continue to book profit after each significant rally. So, what is the key driver? Market-wide risk appetite. This may seem a vague and intangible driver; but in reality, it is pretty straightforward to qualify and the payoff is that there will be an abundance of trading opportunities when it can be confirmed. When underlying sentiment truly does reverse, we will see its effects far and wide. Not only will the dollar recover ground; but high-yield currencies will tumble, low yield currencies will turn into safe havens, equities will plunge, commodities will contract and fixed income will rally as capital seeks out a stable return. I believe this will happen in the first quarter of 2010; and the correction will be aggressive. When this tactical shift does occur, I will be looking particularly at building a long position in USDJPY which is turning off 14-year lows and will soon see a tectonic shift in funding currency roles. As for the other majors and yen crosses, there will be other opportunities; but they will not last nearly as long. Considering the correction that is forthcoming would be on a trend that took a considerable time to build up and has not retested pre-crisis highs; it will be limited. Eventually, we will come to a period of stability where more realistic expectations of risk and reward will meet conditions where stimulus is withdrawn and regulation limits leverage. When this occurs, I will turn to short to medium-term swings as long-term positions will take a considerable time to generate anything on the level of returns that I have grown used to in 2009.

For the latter half of 2009 I argued that financial risky asset classes would likely correct and send the US Dollar significantly higher. I was obviously early in my forecasts to say the least, but in December we’re already seeing what, in my opinion, looks like the US Dollar turnaround. My top trade in 2010 will be to continue buying US Dollars against the Euro especially—but also against the seemingly unstoppable Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Canadian Dollar.
This bet leaves me very exposed if financial markets continue higher, but I think current economic optimism is well-overdone. The recent wave of positive economic data will almost certainly end, and the lofty highs across key financial market risk barometers will prove unsustainable. A large correction would likewise lead to lower commodity market prices—leading the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and Canadian Dollars lower against their US namesake.

Having had trouble with this view in 2009, I nonetheless continue to believe that the US Dollar is headed for a major push higher against the spectrum of major currencies (with the possible exception of the Japanese Yen). Initially, the catalyst is likely to be a correction downward in global stock markets as investors come to terms with the fact that most economic growth in 2009 has owed to inherently finite fiscal stimulus, with the road to self-sustaining recovery rooted in the private sector being a much more distant prospect. This looks likely to boost the Dollar as risk aversion once again lifts the safety-correlated currency. Further ahead into the year, the USD up move will be sustained by a re-examination of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy favoring a more hawkish US central bank than had been expected through much of 2009. This should strip the greenback of the dubious honor of being the most attractive carry trade funding currency and break down the inverse correlation between USD and stock markets and allow the Dollar to gain even as equity markets begin to tread higher once again. On balance, the best way to express this idea seems to be going short EURUSD.

It is easy to go into 2010 bearish the Yen considering the recent actions and rhetoric from the BoJ. The central bank announced a 10 trillion Yen lending program and signaled that fighting deflation is their primary concern with the statement that the BoJ “does not tolerate a year-on-year rate of change in the CPI equal to or below zero percent.” Therefore, the policy makers aren’t expected to raise rates until inflation becomes a concern which they predict will be subdued until March 2012. The greatest case can be made for taking a long dollar position against the Asian currency as the greenback is starting to gain favor with the outlook for U.S. interest rates rising. The dollar has been the primary funding currency in 2009 and as traders start to repay their borrowings, demand for the reserve currency will drive its appreciation higher. Theoretically, we should see investors then look to finance their future investments by borrowing Yen increasing its supply and lowering its value. The obvious nature of the trade generates reservation and calls for a counter argument. However, considering that current levels have only been seen twice in the last thirty years, it is difficult to make a case that downside risks are greater. Yet, any signs that a double dip global recession is under way could send the pair to test the 1995 low of 79.70. However, we may need to see the U.S. credit status deteriorate for it to be surpassed as the safe-haven currency of choice. Chinese growth put the entire Asian economy on its back and the resulting demand for Japanese goods could raise its own growth and inflation outlooks. In a best case scenario that would be toward the end of 2010 which leave plenty of time to make profits on a bullish USD/JPY position. I would wait for A break above trend line resistance (8/15/08, 8/7/09 high) would trigger a bullish trade with the initial target at 101.43-4/6 high, followed by 110.65-8/15/08 high.

There have been significant moves in the EUR/USD this year as governments all over the world took unprecedented steps to prevent the collapse of the global financial system, and we are likely to see some of these trends turnaround or come to an end into 2010 as policy makers look to unwind the emergency measures. Over the first-half of the following year, we are likely to see the U.S. dollar lose its popularity as a funding-currency as the Federal Reserve aims to normalize monetary policy, which could lead the EUR/USD to fall back towards the June 2009 range that lies around 1.3800-1.4000. However, if Chairman Ben Bernanke fails to raise the benchmark interest rate during mid-2010, we may see renewed weakness in the greenback, with the exchange rate climbing back towards the 2009’s high around the 1.5100 level.
At the same time, the Australian and New Zealand currency have certainly carved out a near-term top during the second-half of 2009, and interest rate expectations are likely to have a significant impact on price action throughout going into the following year. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have held a slightly hawkish tone in December but, the marked rise in global assets prices paired with fears of a protracted recovery may drag on carry interest, along with investor’s willingness to move into higher-yielding currencies. Moreover, as investors expect global interest rates to rise over the coming months and look to unwind their high risk/reward trades, the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD is likely to fall back towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels of this year’s rally, and may hold a broad range going into the second-half of 2010 as investors weigh the outlook for future policy.

Bet on the USD in 2010. While my trading methodology does not permit me to take such long-term trades, I do hold a techno-fundamental core USD bullish outlook for the buck in 2010, with a majority of the USD strength seen in the initial half of the year. Technically, a closer look at all major currencies against the USD, shows the Greenback near cyclical lows and in the process of carving out a major base. Fundamentally, it is all about yield differentials and interest rate expectations. The onset of a global recovery is starting to put the Fed in a position to at least consider the possibility of an exit strategy and reversal of their super accommodative monetary policy measures. While I do concede that this will also result in a continued reversal in other central bank monetary policies, which we have already seen through the likes of Australia and Norway (amongst others), the rate at which the Fed will be required to tighten going forward will be than much more extreme and aggressive given where US interest currently stand. This will therefore force a significant narrowing in yield differentials back in favor of the USD, which should result in some major position adjusting and shift back into the USD.

Another theme which I see supporting the USD comes more peripherally through the equity markets. US equity valuations are arguably very attractive at current levels, and the lure of potential investment back into the most efficient stock market in the world, should produce some major inflows back into the United States and thereby prop the Greenback. This should also result in a more proper positive correlation of strong US equities and strong Dollar, which has been inversely correlated over the past several months.

The DailyFX Research Team Wishes You a Happy New Year

In this article you will find 8 different trading ideas for 2010, each representing the personal opinion of a DailyFX analyst. In fact, exchange rate forecasts are often wrong because no one can really predict the future (at least we can’t). However, by looking at the same investment theme from different angles you may improve your chances of making profitable trades in 2010.


http://au.biz.yahoo.com/091231/36/2akbu.html

Ban calls on leaders to attend Millennium Development Goals summit next September 20-22-2010

Ban calls on leaders to attend Millennium Development Goals summit next September 20-22-2010

December 2009 - video


United Nations High-level Plenary Meeting on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG Summit) (20-22 September 2010, New York)

This briefing paper is intended to provide information and background on the upcoming United Nations High-level Plenary Meeting on the Millennium Development Goals – or MDG summit - which will take place from 20-22 September at UN Headquarters in New York. For information on the format of the Summit, click here

What is the MDG Summit in September?

Following on a proposal by the UN Secretary-General, the General Assembly has decided to convene an MDG summit (High-level Plenary Meeting) on 20-22 September, with the primary objective to accelerate progress towards all the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015, taking into account the progress made towards the internationally agreed development goals (A/RES/64/184). The summit is expected to undertake a comprehensive review of successes, best practices and lessons learned, obstacles and gaps, challenges and opportunities, “leading to concrete strategies for action”. The President of the General Assembly has appointed two ‘Co-facilitators’ to lead the inter-governmental negotiating process. They will likely wait until after the UN Secretary-General releases his report on the MDGs in March to begin.

The Co-facilitators are the Ambassadors of Senegal and Denmark to the United Nations in New York.

In addition to the official preparatory process, a number of related events and reports will feed into government deliberations leading to the September summit.

Of particular relevance to civil society organisations are the Hearings of the General Assembly – a part of the official process - that will be convened from 14-15 June 2010 in New York. The details of this meeting are still being finalized, but they likely will be similar to the Hearings that were convened in 2005 in conjunction with the 2005 World Summit.

For a full calendar of events, click here

Why is the summit being convened?

The MDGs incorporate key goals and targets of the broader development agenda, agreed upon by world leaders and other stakeholders at different UN Summits and Conferences. Thus, the MDGs are not about extreme poverty only, but also include goals and targets for education, maternal health, child mortality, public health, environmental sustainability and biodiversity. By linking the MDGs to the internationally agreed development agenda (IADA), world leaders and development partners have recognized the synergies among various development goals and targets, and the need for an integrated approach for achieving them.

Ten years on from the original adoption of the MDGs at the 2000 Millennium Summit, and despite remarkable progress in some countries, collectively we are falling short in their achievement.

The consequence of these shortfalls, further aggravated by the combined effects of the global food, climate, energy and economic crises, is that improvements in the lives of the poorest are happening at an unacceptably slow pace and in some countries, hard fought gains are being eroded. At the current pace, several of the eight MDGs and associated targets are likely to be missed in many countries. The challenges are most severe in the least developed countries (LDCs), land-locked developing countries (LLDCs) and some small island developing states (SIDS).

If the MDGs are to be achieved by 2015, not only must the level of financial investment be increased but innovative programmes and policies aimed at overall development and economic and social transformation must be rapidly scaled up and replicated.

The MDGs are achievable, but there is clearly an urgent to address challenges, acknowledge failures and come together to overcome the obstacles to their achievement. This will require the embrace of pioneering ideas and political will on the part of governments and their development partners.

How can I contribute to the review process?

In addition to engaging your own government at the national and local levels, there will be a number of ways to input at the international level. Of particular note are the aforementioned ‘Hearings of the General Assembly with Civil Society’ that governments have called for and that will take place from 14-15 June 2010 in New York.

A primary goal of this website is to improve the linkages between the international review process and civil society organizations around the globe. Through this site, you will gain access not only to valuable information and updates about the process as it develops, but space will be created for you to have input into that process as well.

The simple fact is that 189 world leaders made an historic promise at the United Nations Millennium Summit in 2000 when they signed onto the Millennium Declaration and agreed to meet the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. It’s up to citizens to make sure leaders follow through on these commitments.

One way to get involved – either individually or through your organization is through the "United Nations Millennium Campaign" (http://www.endpoverty2015.org). The Millennium Campaign supports people from around the world to take action in support of the Millennium Development Goals. Get involved at http://www.endpoverty2015.org

WaMu says Tax Refund May Double, Shares Soar


December 31, 2009

WaMu says tax refund may double, shares soar

WILMINGTON, Delaware (AFP) - Washington Mutual Inc said it could receive an additional $2.6 billion in tax refunds due to a recently enacted law, sending shares of the bankrupt bank holding company soaring on Thursday.

The added money could also help resolve various legal disputes surrounding the company's collapse last year, one analyst said.

Washington Mutual could receive the additional refund following the enactment in November of a law that permits net operating losses to be carried back for five years, from two years previously. That change would double the company's expected refund, according to a court filing on Wednesday.

The company's preferred shares rocketed nearly 50 percent to $59.48 while its common stock rose about 11 percent to 13.71 cents, in pink sheet trading.

One analyst said the refund could clear the way for a settlement of the bankruptcy case, which has been bogged down in disputes over claims to company's assets.

"It could be one of the main mechanisms of fostering a settlement. The apportionment of the refund could make all the sides happy," said Kevin Starke, senior vice president at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.

The company's main asset is a deposit of about $4 billion that is also claimed by JPMorgan Chase & Co Inc, which bought Washington Mutual's failed bank operations from a government agency for $1.9 billion last year.

JPMorgan also has said it has a claim on some of Washington Mutual's tax refunds, which until the law change were estimated at up to $3 billion. The refunds and deposit are the company's largest assets.

Earlier this month, an office within the U.S. Trustee asked Washington Mutual to provide a list of its shareholders so it could survey them for their interest in serving on an official committee representing equity holders.

Shareholders are generally the last creditors to receive a distribution and such a committee is usually opposed by the U.S. Trustee unless shareholders can prove they can reasonably expect a distribution after all creditors have been paid.

Washington Mutual said in its operating report for November it had $8.3 billion of liabilities.

Washington Mutual and the U.S. Trustee's office could not be immediately reached for comment.

The case is In re Washington Mutual Inc, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, District of Delaware (Wilmington), No. 08-12229.

AFP

US hands over Green Zone security to Iraq (AFP)


US hands over Green Zone security to Iraq (AFP)

31 December 2009

BAGHDAD - The United States Thursday handed over security control of the Green Zone, symbol of the American occupation, to Iraq as a UN mandate for foreign troops ran out and bilateral military accords took effect.

In another step towards sovereignty, Iraq was Thursday also handed control of Basra airport by British forces, who have been using the facility as their main military base in southern Iraq since the 2003 US-led invasion.

The formal transfer of control of the heavily fortified Green Zone in central Baghdad, during an emotional ceremony at the former palace of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein, was hailed by Iraqi government and military officials.

“A year before it was just a dream to think about foreign troops withdrawing from Iraq but today that dream has become a reality,” Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said in an impassioned speech in a hall at the palace.

“It is our right to consider this day the day of sovereignty and the beginning of the process of retrieving every inch of our nation’s soil,” Maliki said as the Iraqi flag was hoisted at the sandstone palace entrance.

“The palace is the sign of Iraqi sovereignty and it is a message to all Iraqis that our sovereignty has returned.”

Maliki also declared the day a national holiday.

“I ask the Council of Ministers and the Presidency Council to announce this day as a national holiday.”

Under the terms of an agreement signed with Washington in November, US troops officially decamped from the 14.5 square kilometre (5.6 square-mile) Green Zone located on the banks of the Tigris in central Baghdad.

However, US troops will continue to play an advisory role to the Iraqi military and the new huge US embassy complex lies within the fortified zone although many other buildings already have been handed back to the Iraqis.

The expiry of the UN mandate put in place on October 16, 2003 allowing foreign troops to operate on Iraqi soil, means Iraq takes greater control of its own security and marks a further step towards full sovereignty.

Soldiers from the Baghdad Brigade, who take orders from Maliki, took over when the UN mandate expired at midnight although American forces will help man checkpoints and play an advisory role to the Iraqi military.

“The American withdrawal from the Green Zone will be gradual,” Iraqi military spokesman in Baghdad, Major General Qassim Atta, told AFP.

“US checkpoint equipment remains in place and the checkpoints will be coordinated with the American forces but the zone will be run by the Baghdad Brigade.”

The handover of Basra airport was also hailed by Iraqi officials.

“This is a great and important day during which Basra airport control tower and the entire airport was turned over by the British to us,” Basra provincial governor Mohammed Masbah al-Waeli said at ceremony at the airport.

Iraqi transport ministry representative Sabih al-Sheybani said the airport would still be used by foreign troops.

“The American and the British forces will use the airport but under Iraqi supervision,” he said.

Britain’s troops had already withdrawn from Basra—a key oil and financial hub and Iraq’s third largest city—in September last year and handed over security control of Basra province some three months later.

The US military has also handed back to the Iraqis control of part of its airspace and Baghdad airport although the adjacent US military base, Camp Victory, will remain a key headquarters for the Americans.

However foreign troops will still remain on Iraqi soil for some time.

The United States, which has 146,000 soldiers in Iraq, signed in November a bilateral agreement with Baghdad which allows its combat forces to remain in the country until the end of 2011.

Britain and Australia—which had the second and third largest contingents respectively—have signed their own separate bilateral agreements with Iraq on Tuesday and will stay on until the end of July.

Higher Denominations will be Removed in the Near Future

Note ~ The following statement is saying that all Iraqi Dinars with 3 0's will be removed from circulation.

That would mean that the 25,000, 10,000, 5,000 and 1,000 dinar notes will, over time, be taken out of circulation. This is Not a lop. Time will be given to trade in the higher notes for smaller notes and eventually the higher notes will no longer be used.



December 31, 2009

This press release by the Central Bank of Iraq on 30 December, the current dinar higher denominations were removed 3 zeros near future to meet the great expectations of the dinar in 2010. This is one of the most important decisions for the Central Bank

http://www.radiodijla.com/cgi-bin/index2.pl?1327191435

IMF Says Ready to Negotiate Turkey Loan if Asked

"If the authorities decide to request a negotiating mission, we could field one in short order"

IMF says ready to negotiate Turkey loan if asked

Thu Dec 31, 2009

WASHINGTON, Dec 31 (AFP) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that it could send a negotiating mission to Turkey "in short order" if authorities requested one to negotiating an IMF loan deal.

"We have thoroughly discussed with the Turkish authorities the policies that could be supported by an IMF program," an IMF spokeswoman said.

"If the authorities decide to request a negotiating mission, we could field one in short order."

Exchange rate adjustment of 5% is seen for GCC currency












Bumped


September 15, 2009

Exchange rate adjustment of 5% is seen for GCC currency

The Gulf Co-operation Council countries may have to make only a nominal exchange rate adjustment of less than 5% in fixing the value for their proposed common currency, according to a study.

Finding that adjustments would tend to drop from 2010 to 2013, Qatar would have to make the lowest revaluation of 1.3% against the dollar by 2013, said a working paper ‘Establishing Conversion Values for New Currency Unions:

Method and Application to the planned GCC Currency Union’, prepared for the International Monetary Fund. “Our calculations suggest that only a small nominal exchange rate adjustment (less than 5%) is needed for the GCC countries to establish the conversion at the closest level to equilibrium,” said the study whose findings come at a time as the GCC has agreed to set up a monetary council in Riyadh to make arrangements for the planned currency union.

If the GCC decides to establish the new currency as planned by 2010, Saudi Arabia would need to revalue its currency by 2.94% against the dollar, Kuwait by 5.15%, Qatar by 4.54%, and Bahrain by 1.09%, it said.By 2011, Saudi Arabia would need to revalue its currency by 2.73%, Kuwait (4.75%), Qatar (4.11%) and Bahrain (3.6%).By 2012, Saudi Arabia would need to revalue its currency by 3.04%, Kuwait (4.25%), Qatar (2.93%) and Bahrain (3.95%), whereas by 2013, it would be 3.35%, 3.75%, 1.30% and 4.3% respectively.

With the GCC countries largely following fixed exchange parity, the study said odds are high (for the region) that the new currency will be pegged to the dollar at least for the first year of its launch. There have been widespread concerns that the dollar peg was contributing to overheating of the economies and causing large-scale capital losses because of the dollar’s weakness.

Numerous proposals, such as switching to a basket or announcing a large appreciation (20%-30%) of the GCC currencies against the dollar, were made to deal with the weak greenback, according to the study. The paper identified the year in which each GCC economy would be the closest to its internal and external equilibrium by using the real exchange rate equilibrium that links the exchange rate to its long term fundamentals.

Then, it estimated the degree of misalignment in the bilateral exchange rate vis-à-vis the dollar based on the World Economic Outlook forecasts until 2013. Calculating the real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment for each of the GCC currencies, the study identified 2005 as equilibrium year for Qatar, 2006 for Bahrain and 2003 for Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

The theoretical determinants of the REER equilibrium vary across countries and include trade, openness, foreign reserves, government consumption, net capital flows, broad money and the US nominal effective exchange rate.

Asserting that identifying the equilibrium exchange rate at the conversion date is essential, the study said if an exchange rate was misaligned (overvalued or undervalued) at the time of the conversion into the union currency, it would be frozen at that misalignment leading to economic distortions across the region.

An undervalued entry would give rise to a higher competitiveness for a country compared with its partners in the union, and will “require a higher than average inflation rate throughout the union” to reduce the misalignment, it said. Highlighting that an overvalued entry could involve significant costs in terms of unemployment and bankruptcies, the study said, therefore, the fair assessment of the misalignment for all members of the union was crucial.


http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=314890&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28

Yuan Currency Swap and CHINA-ASEAN FREE TRADE AREA (CAFTA) on January 1, 2010.

Bumped~

Oct 30, 2009

Yuan Currency Swap

On March 23, 2009, China made public announcements to overhaul the global monetary system, thereby questioning the role of the US dollar as the reserve currency. Chinese officials have gone on record saying they want to move the global currency peg away from the dollar in favour of currency diversification as indicated by China's push for OPEC to price oil in a basket of currencies (including the yuan) instead of dollars.

The use of the Chinese yuan in China's neighbouring countries for transactions has been growing in recent years. Today the yuan is informally freely convertible in almost all countries bordering China.

The push for the regionalization of yuan appears to be gathering steam ahead of the scheduled launch of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on January 1, 2010.


Under the terms of CAFTA, there will be zero-tariff for 90 percent of the products traded between China and ASEAN countries and "substantial opening" in the service trade market.

At nearly US$2.3 trillion, China holds the largest official foreign exchange reserves of any country and surpassed Japan as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt in November 2008. Understandably, such a large exposure leaves China subject to currency fluctuations. China has been shifting their U.S. holdings to shorter term Treasuries and analysts believe China has been continuing a trend of diversifying into non-US dollar assets.

The economic model of export-led growth, of which China has been engaging, is essentially the practice of vendor financing to the United States. The concern is not that the United States will be unable to pay back the debt, for as long as this debt is denominated in US dollars, the United States will always be able to pay off the debt (since they can legally print as many dollars as required). The concern is what the purchasing power of these dollars will be when the debt is eventually repaid.

The cost of printing a $100 dollar with Benjamin Franklin's portrait is the same as that required for a $1 dollar bill with a profile of George Washington. The value for this extra paper note is derived by reducing the purchasing power of all US money in circulation and held in reserve.


For single bills, the effect of devaluation is trivial; however, when large increases to the US money supply occur, the effect upon purchasing power becomes a disconcerting issue for holders of large amounts of US denominated assets such as US government bonds and treasury bills.

The widely accepted US dollar is usually used to settle trade accounts. Since July, China has allowed Hong Kong and five mainland cities to settle cross-border trade in yuan. Additionally, since December 2008, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has signed six different official bilateral currency swap agreements worth 650 billion yuan in total.


Currency swap agreements are two-way loans between central banks. A central bank, through the exchange, injects the partner country's currency into its own financial system, allowing domestic businesses to borrow the other country's currency and use it to pay for imports of that country's goods.

This allows for bilateral trade to occur between the two countries without a requirement to convert everything into US dollars as firms importing goods from China can then pay for them with yuan borrowed from domestic banks. As the yuan is not a fully convertible currency it would be primarily used for this purpose.

Other countries working towards directly exchanging their own currencies in trade transactions with China rather than using the US dollar as an intermediary include Russia, Brazil and Thailand. Recently, China has moved past the US as Brazil's top trading partner.

While the Chinese yuan does not currently have the liquidity to replace the US dollar as the global currency of choice for resolving international trade settlements, it must be acknowledged that China has made great strides in making that scenario more plausible than it was even a year ago.


http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14662.html

Latin American Bloc to Begin Using its Own Currency


Bumped ~

Latin American bloc to use virtual currency, not US dollar, for trade among members

Dec 13, 2009

Members of a leftist bloc of nine Latin American nations said Saturday they plan to use a new currency dubbed the "sucre" for trade among themselves starting in January.

No sucres will be printed or coined, but the virtual currency will be used to manage debts between governments while reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar and on Washington in general.

Cuba already signed an agreement on Saturday to pay for a shipment of Venezuelan rice in sucres, according to Rogelio Sierra, the island's deputy foreign minister. He declined to say what the shipment was worth.

That agreement was made even as ever cash-strapped Cuba has fallen behind on its debt to nations and multinational corporations amid the global recession.

The Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas trade group is holding a two-day summit starting Sunday in the Cuban capital.

The group was formed by Venezuela's self-described socialist president, Hugo Chavez, as an alternative to U.S.-backed free-trade consortiums. Member nations are Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras, Ecuador, Bolivia, Antigua and Barbuda, San Vincent and the Grenadines, and Dominica.

Honduras remains part of the bloc despite a June coup that toppled leftist President Manuel Zelaya. Zelaya's deposed foreign minister is attending the summit, but the acting government in Honduras will almost certainly not abide by any agreements made.

Chavez was greeted Friday as he arrived in Cuba by President Raul Castro. Cuba and Venezuela signed "agreements of cooperation" on 285 bilateral projects in 2010 totaling nearly US$3.2 billion, according to Venezuelan Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez. He provided no details on what those agreements entail, however.

On Saturday, Raul Castro said the cooperation between the countries will allow them to "alleviate the negative impact of the current world economic crisis."

Leftist presidents Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and Evo Morales of Bolivia are expected to attend the summit.


related articles ~ Links ~

LATIN AMERICAN REGIONAL CURRENCY: SUCRE

Bolivia summit adopts new currency the "Sucre"